Bill Overview
Title: Taiwan Conflict Deterrence Act of 2022
Description: This bill requires additional reporting regarding the domestic and foreign financial activity of specified Chinese officials. Specifically, the bill requires the Department of the Treasury, upon a determination by the President that a threat to the interests of the United States exists resulting from actions by China, to (1) report to Congress on funds held by certain members of the Chinese Communist Party, including the total amount of funds, a description of the funds, and a list of related financial institutions; and (2) brief Congress on how these funds were acquired and any illicit or corrupt means employed to acquire or use the funds. The bill also allows Treasury to prohibit significant transactions between U.S. financial institutions and these individuals.
Sponsors: Rep. Hill, J. French [R-AR-2]
Target Audience
Population: People affected by financial sanctions related to Chinese officials
Estimated Size: 5000
- The bill affects Chinese officials whose financial activities will be scrutinized and reported on.
- It impacts U.S. financial institutions as they may be prohibited from conducting transactions with certain Chinese officials.
- Chinese officials, particularly those who are members of the Chinese Communist Party, are directly targeted by this reporting requirement.
- The bill potentially impacts U.S. companies and individuals conducting business with these Chinese officials.
- Broader impacts could include changes in the financial markets and international relations, affecting stakeholders in both the U.S. and China.
Reasoning
- The impact on the general American public is expected to be low in direct terms, but indirect effects may influence investors and businesses involved with China.
- The policy is likely to mainly impact those in financial industries and businesses involved in international trade.
- Given the policy's nature and budget constraints, its primary effects will be felt among key stakeholders in finance and business rather than the general public.
- Reporting requirements and potential transaction prohibitions may deter international business deals satisfying China's relations.
- Well-being scores among individuals are likely to remain stable, given the indirect nature of the policy's effects on everyday life.
Simulated Interviews
Financial Analyst (New York City, NY)
Age: 50 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I think it will definitely complicate our dealings, but it's critical for national security.
- Additional reporting requirements could increase operational costs and slow down business.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 6 |
Tech Entrepreneur (San Francisco, CA)
Age: 35 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 2.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This may limit potential investment opportunities from China.
- It might encourage me to look for more diverse investment sources.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 8 |
Government Policy Advisor (Washington, D.C.)
Age: 40 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 2/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The policy seems necessary to hold accountable affected parties.
- May need to advise on potential market and relationship impacts.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 6 |
Investor (Los Angeles, CA)
Age: 28 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 9
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Uncertain about how this will alter the investment landscape.
- Might need to adjust my portfolio accordingly.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 9 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 9 |
| Year 3 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 9 |
Oil & Gas Executive (Houston, TX)
Age: 48 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 1.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- We track these reports but expect minimal direct impact on our sector.
- Could create market instability affecting oil prices temporarily.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 6 |
College Professor (Boston, MA)
Age: 55 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 0.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Important for transparency and accountability in international finance.
- Academic research might be enriched by increased data availability.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 7 |
Retired Military Officer (Chicago, IL)
Age: 60 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 0.0 years
Commonness: 7/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Seems like a good mechanism for tracking potential security risks.
- Glad measures are being taken to monitor threat vectors.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 8 |
Tech Consultant (Austin, TX)
Age: 45 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 1.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- We may need to reassess data privacy concerns related to such policies.
- Might see shifts in global tech partnership dynamics.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 7 |
Software Developer (Seattle, WA)
Age: 29 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 9
Duration of Impact: 0.0 years
Commonness: 6/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Minimal personal impact but interested in geopolitical tech trends.
- Potential to broaden understanding of global economic frameworks.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 2 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 3 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 9 |
Supply Chain Manager (Miami, FL)
Age: 34 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 2.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Efforts may lead to shifts in overseas production decisions.
- Could indirectly influence logistics dynamics with key partners.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 8 |
Cost Estimates
Year 1: $5000000 (Low: $3000000, High: $7000000)
Year 2: $5000000 (Low: $3000000, High: $7000000)
Year 3: $5000000 (Low: $3000000, High: $7000000)
Year 5: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)
Year 10: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)
Year 100: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)
Key Considerations
- To effectively implement, Treasury will require additional staff or resources, potentially increasing costs.
- Feasibility of obtaining accurate financial data from international sources could affect efficacy.
- Potential diplomatic tension with China must be considered.