Policy Impact Analysis - 117/HR/7614

Bill Overview

Title: Digital Commodity Exchange Act of 2022

Description: This bill allows for the regulation and registration of digital commodity exchanges subject to oversight by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. The bill establishes the conditions for the sale of digital commodities, the registration of exchanges, and sets forth other requirements.

Sponsors: Rep. Thompson, Glenn [R-PA-15]

Target Audience

Population: People involved in digital commodity markets

Estimated Size: 15000000

Reasoning

Simulated Interviews

Cryptocurrency Trader (New York, NY)

Age: 30 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 4/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Increased regulation could add some hurdles to trading, but overall it might stabilize the market and protect investors.
  • I'm cautious but optimistic about how this will play out for professional traders like me.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 6
Year 2 8 7
Year 3 8 7
Year 5 9 7
Year 10 9 7
Year 20 9 8

CEO of a Fintech Startup (San Francisco, CA)

Age: 45 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 8

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 3/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • The regulation could mean more business opportunities for my company as exchanges look to comply with new rules.
  • However, increased compliance costs could be a concern for startups.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 8 8
Year 2 8 7
Year 3 9 7
Year 5 9 7
Year 10 9 6
Year 20 8 6

Software Engineer (Austin, TX)

Age: 28 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 10/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I'm excited about the potential for clarity in regulations as it could encourage innovation in the field.
  • As a casual investor, I hope it leads to more stability without making participation too complicated.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 6
Year 2 7 6
Year 3 7 6
Year 5 7 6
Year 10 8 6
Year 20 8 6

Regulatory Analyst (Chicago, IL)

Age: 52 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 7.0 years

Commonness: 7/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • The policy could increase the demand for my services as clients navigate new regulatory landscapes.
  • It might also create some initial uncertainty, but that's typical in regulatory shifts.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 7 6
Year 3 8 6
Year 5 8 6
Year 10 8 6
Year 20 8 7

College Student (Portland, OR)

Age: 22 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 3.0 years

Commonness: 15/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • As someone starting out, the policy might help make things feel more secure.
  • I see it as a learning opportunity to understand how regulation impacts markets.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 6
Year 2 6 5
Year 3 7 5
Year 5 7 5
Year 10 8 5
Year 20 8 5

Compliance Officer (Miami, FL)

Age: 37 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 8

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 5/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • While this adds more work for compliance, it could streamline processes and bolster investor confidence.
  • Proper implementation could improve market transparency significantly.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 8 8
Year 2 9 8
Year 3 9 8
Year 5 9 8
Year 10 8 7
Year 20 8 7

Retired Electrician (Rural Iowa)

Age: 60 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 2.0 years

Commonness: 12/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Regulations make me a bit nervous, as I'm not sure how they will affect my small investments.
  • Hoping it will bring some peace of mind and security.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 5
Year 2 5 5
Year 3 6 5
Year 5 6 5
Year 10 6 5
Year 20 6 5

Marketing Manager (Seattle, WA)

Age: 40 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 6.0 years

Commonness: 8/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • The policy could mean more stability and trust in our platform from the consumers.
  • Adapting our communication strategies to the new regulations will be crucial.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 8 7
Year 3 8 7
Year 5 8 7
Year 10 8 6
Year 20 7 6

University Professor (Boston, MA)

Age: 55 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 5/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • The regulation presents a significant case study for my research and course materials.
  • I'm interested to see how the market adjusts and whether innovation is fostered or constrained.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 7 6
Year 3 7 6
Year 5 8 6
Year 10 8 5
Year 20 7 5

Lobbyist (Washington D.C.)

Age: 35 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 3/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • The act could shift the focus of my job significantly, as we lobby for favorable interpretations and adjustments in the law.
  • It's important to ensure the regulations are fair and promote market growth.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 8 7
Year 2 8 7
Year 3 9 7
Year 5 9 7
Year 10 9 7
Year 20 8 7

Cost Estimates

Year 1: $50000000 (Low: $30000000, High: $70000000)

Year 2: $52000000 (Low: $31000000, High: $73000000)

Year 3: $54000000 (Low: $32000000, High: $76000000)

Year 5: $58000000 (Low: $34500000, High: $81000000)

Year 10: $66000000 (Low: $39500000, High: $92500000)

Year 100: $120000000 (Low: $72000000, High: $160000000)

Key Considerations