Policy Impact Analysis - 117/HR/7538

Bill Overview

Title: To provide the equivalent of a 6-month Federal income tax holiday for certain individuals.

Description: This bill reduces the income tax of individual taxpayers for taxable years beginning after December 31, 2021, by the six-month federal income tax holiday amount. That amount is 50% of the income tax otherwise imposed and is phased out based upon taxpayer adjusted gross income.

Sponsors: Rep. Moore, Barry [R-AL-2]

Target Audience

Population: Individuals subject to federal income tax

Estimated Size: 152000000

Reasoning

Simulated Interviews

Software Engineer (Austin, TX)

Age: 26 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 6/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I'm in favor of the tax holiday, as it's a great relief for someone just starting her career.
  • With the high cost of living in Austin, extra financial ease allows me to budget better.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 8 7
Year 2 8 7
Year 3 8 7
Year 5 9 6
Year 10 8 5
Year 20 7 4

Automotive Technician (Detroit, MI)

Age: 38 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 3.0 years

Commonness: 8/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Any tax cut is welcome, but I worry it might mean less funding for important programs in the future.
  • This will help with immediate household expenses.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 6
Year 2 7 6
Year 3 6 5
Year 5 6 5
Year 10 5 4
Year 20 5 4

Freelance Graphic Designer (Miami, FL)

Age: 28 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 7.0 years

Commonness: 5/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I'm relieved that the policy includes self-employed people like me.
  • These savings will allow me to invest more in my business.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 5
Year 2 8 5
Year 3 8 5
Year 5 9 6
Year 10 8 5
Year 20 7 5

Senior Accountant (New York City, NY)

Age: 45 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 2.0 years

Commonness: 3/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • The tax cut is not as beneficial as I'd hope due to my income level.
  • It’s a dent, but appreciated with tuition payments.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 6
Year 2 5 5
Year 3 5 5
Year 5 5 4
Year 10 4 4
Year 20 4 4

Factory Worker (Des Moines, IA)

Age: 59 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 4/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • It's helpful but I'm concerned about impacts on social services funding my family relies on.
  • This relief is timely as I prepare for retirement.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 5
Year 2 6 5
Year 3 6 5
Year 5 7 5
Year 10 7 4
Year 20 5 4

Restaurant Manager (Atlanta, GA)

Age: 31 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 4

Duration of Impact: 6.0 years

Commonness: 7/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • It's such a relief to have a lower tax bill, makes saving up for a house a bit easier.
  • I’m glad the government is considering the common people.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 4
Year 2 7 4
Year 3 6 4
Year 5 6 3
Year 10 6 3
Year 20 4 3

Small Business Owner (Portland, OR)

Age: 52 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 8.0 years

Commonness: 6/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This policy is helpful as my business has been struggling post-pandemic.
  • Extra funds can go towards the business and improving services.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 6
Year 2 7 6
Year 3 7 5
Year 5 8 5
Year 10 7 4
Year 20 6 4

IT Consultant (Phoenix, AZ)

Age: 50 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 2.0 years

Commonness: 5/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I appreciate the limited tax burden during the period, but it doesn’t change much long-term.
  • It's a nice short-term benefit, but I worry about fiscal sustainability.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 6 6
Year 3 6 6
Year 5 6 6
Year 10 5 5
Year 20 5 5

University Professor (Los Angeles, CA)

Age: 34 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 4/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This reduction will help manage student loans better and aid savings for the future.
  • Wishes the phase-out was less aggressive for those in educational sectors.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 8 7
Year 2 8 7
Year 3 7 6
Year 5 7 6
Year 10 6 5
Year 20 6 5

Retired (Charleston, WV)

Age: 66 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 0.0 years

Commonness: 10/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • The policy won’t directly benefit me since I don’t pay federal taxes anymore.
  • Concerned about long-term impacts on Medicare or Social Security.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 5
Year 2 5 5
Year 3 5 5
Year 5 5 5
Year 10 4 4
Year 20 4 4

Cost Estimates

Year 1: $260000000000 (Low: $250000000000, High: $270000000000)

Year 2: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)

Year 3: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)

Year 5: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)

Year 10: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)

Year 100: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)

Key Considerations