Policy Impact Analysis - 117/HR/7528

Bill Overview

Title: No Aid for Abetting Illegal Immigration Act

Description: This bill prohibits the President from providing assistance to El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, or Nicaragua, unless the President certifies that the country receiving the assistance has implemented laws and policies that would cease the flow of migrants through the country to the United States.

Sponsors: Rep. Weber, Randy K., Sr. [R-TX-14]

Target Audience

Population: People living in El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, and Nicaragua

Estimated Size: 10000000

Reasoning

Simulated Interviews

Social Worker (Los Angeles, CA)

Age: 32 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 12/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I am concerned about how this policy might indirectly harm families I work with.
  • A reduction in stabilization efforts in these countries could push more families into desperate situations.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 7
Year 2 6 7
Year 3 6 7
Year 5 5 7
Year 10 5 7
Year 20 5 7

NGO Administrator (Houston, TX)

Age: 45 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 8/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Ceasing aid will only exacerbate migration issues, not solve them.
  • Our work might become unsustainable if funds keep getting cut.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 6
Year 2 5 6
Year 3 5 6
Year 5 4 6
Year 10 4 6
Year 20 4 6

Human Rights Lawyer (New York, NY)

Age: 29 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 8

Duration of Impact: 20.0 years

Commonness: 10/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Migrants see the US as a beacon of hope; cutting aid will not stop them.
  • This may cause more human rights abuses to be ignored as countries scramble to comply with US demands.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 8
Year 2 6 8
Year 3 5 8
Year 5 4 8
Year 10 4 8
Year 20 4 8

Professor of International Relations (Chicago, IL)

Age: 52 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 15/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • US policies often create unintended consequences in foreign countries.
  • More long-term studies need to be done on showing aid cuts leading to policy compliance.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 7
Year 2 6 7
Year 3 6 7
Year 5 5 7
Year 10 5 7
Year 20 5 7

Software Engineer (San Francisco, CA)

Age: 40 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 8

Duration of Impact: 0.0 years

Commonness: 18/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I don't think this policy will directly affect me.
  • I'm open to policies aiming to reduce migration pressures on the US border.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 8 8
Year 2 8 8
Year 3 8 8
Year 5 8 8
Year 10 8 8
Year 20 8 8

Retired Government Employee (Miami, FL)

Age: 60 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 14/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • It's important to pressure these countries to take measures against illegal migration.
  • I'm hopeful this policy will push them in the right direction.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 7 7
Year 3 7 7
Year 5 7 7
Year 10 7 7
Year 20 7 8

Student (Seattle, WA)

Age: 23 | Gender: other

Wellbeing Before Policy: 9

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 16/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Cutting aid does not seem like a positive move, especially if the goal is human stability.
  • I worry about the ripple effects on people in those countries.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 8 9
Year 2 8 9
Year 3 7 9
Year 5 7 9
Year 10 7 9
Year 20 7 9

Policy Analyst (Washington, DC)

Age: 37 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 11/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I see potential for diplomatic fallout that could affect US standing.
  • This might be too late for effective change without adverse side effects.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 7
Year 2 6 7
Year 3 6 7
Year 5 5 7
Year 10 5 7
Year 20 5 7

Business Owner (Phoenix, AZ)

Age: 55 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 8

Duration of Impact: 3.0 years

Commonness: 10/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • If this policy reduces illegal migration, it could stabilize my hiring processes.
  • But if it worsens conditions, I may lose workforce options.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 8 8
Year 2 7 8
Year 3 7 8
Year 5 7 8
Year 10 7 8
Year 20 7 8

Customs and Border Protection agent (Dallas, TX)

Age: 44 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 9/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • We need comprehensive strategies, and this policy is part of that.
  • However, I worry about international collaboration and its feasibility.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 6
Year 2 6 6
Year 3 6 6
Year 5 5 6
Year 10 5 6
Year 20 5 6

Cost Estimates

Year 1: $0 (Low: $0, High: $10000000)

Year 2: $0 (Low: $0, High: $10000000)

Year 3: $0 (Low: $0, High: $10000000)

Year 5: $0 (Low: $0, High: $10000000)

Year 10: $0 (Low: $0, High: $10000000)

Year 100: $0 (Low: $0, High: $10000000)

Key Considerations