Bill Overview
Title: Repeal Hague Invasion Act
Description: This bill repeals the American Servicemembers' Protection Act of 2002, which (1) generally prohibits U.S. cooperation with the International Criminal Court (ICC), and (2) prohibits participation by members of the Armed Forces in certain U.N. operations unless the President certifies that U.S. national interests justify such participation or that the members are not at risk of ICC prosecution.
Sponsors: Rep. Omar, Ilhan [D-MN-5]
Target Audience
Population: People affected by the repeal of U.S. restrictions on ICC cooperation
Estimated Size: 2100000
- The bill affects U.S. cooperation with the International Criminal Court (ICC), which has jurisdiction over international crimes such as genocide, war crimes, and crimes against humanity.
- It also affects members of the U.S. Armed Forces, as it previously restricted their participation in certain U.N. operations unless protections against ICC prosecution were ensured.
- The repeal could enhance U.S. involvement in international operations and increase accountability for international crimes.
- The Kimberley Process estimates that around 75 million people worldwide are directly affected by the diamond industry, which can be indirectly affected by international peacekeeping and conflict resolutions.
- Internationally, this change could affect countries and individuals involved in or affected by conflicts where the ICC has jurisdiction, potentially improving accountability.
- The Armed Forces in the United States consist of about 1.3 million active-duty personnel and an additional 0.8 million in reservists, all potentially affected.
Reasoning
- The repeal would primarily affect members of the U.S. Armed Forces and legal professionals concerned with international law, who number about 2.1 million in the U.S. This is the primary target group for the policy.
- The budget allocation indicates that resources might be used for increased ICC cooperation, possibly affecting training or compliance activities for military personnel.
- A secondary group that might be indirectly affected includes families of service members, given changes in deployment protocols.
- Legal experts or those working in international relations might experience an indirect impact through changes in the geopolitical stance of the U.S.
- Given budget constraints, widespread public engagement in the policy is unlikely. Thus, most citizens outside military and international law sectors might see no direct impact.
- It's essential to cover a diverse range of experiences in military and associated careers to understand possible effects on wellbeing and policy reception.
Simulated Interviews
Marine Corps Officer (San Diego, CA)
Age: 35 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 8/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I have mixed feelings about this policy. While increased accountability is essential, it adds complexity to my service responsibilities.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 5 |
International Law Consultant (Washington, D.C.)
Age: 45 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 15.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This repeal could provide more work opportunities and add clarity to international obligations.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 5 |
Army Reservist (Fort Bragg, NC)
Age: 29 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 12/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I worry about the legal risks in international deployment but recognize the potential for meaningful peacekeeping roles.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 4 |
| Year 20 | 5 | 4 |
Military Spouse and Advocacy Blogger (Houston, TX)
Age: 37 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 10/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I hope this policy doesn't lead to more uncertainty for families like ours, but we support accountability.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 4 | 5 |
Retired Army General (New York, NY)
Age: 50 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 2/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This marks a strategic shift that could enhance global perception of U.S. commitment to justice.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 9 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 5 |
Human Rights Attorney (Seattle, WA)
Age: 28 | Gender: other
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 20.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This repeal is long overdue and signifies a progression towards better international justice.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 6 |
Graduate Student in Political Science (Chicago, IL)
Age: 23 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 9/20
Statement of Opinion:
- It might open new research avenues but also complicates analysis of military engagement.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 5 |
Clinical Psychologist (Atlanta, GA)
Age: 55 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 6/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This policy shift may impact mental wellbeing if legal anxieties increase for clients involved in international operations.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 4 |
Defense Analyst (Denver, CO)
Age: 32 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- It requires reevaluation of strategic defense positioning and increases collaboration complexities.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 5 | 4 |
| Year 20 | 4 | 3 |
Retired Navy Nurse (San Antonio, TX)
Age: 62 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 7/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I worry about potential impacts on veterans if accountability measures change significantly.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 4 | 4 |
Cost Estimates
Year 1: $15000000 (Low: $10000000, High: $25000000)
Year 2: $12000000 (Low: $8000000, High: $20000000)
Year 3: $10000000 (Low: $7000000, High: $15000000)
Year 5: $8000000 (Low: $5000000, High: $13000000)
Year 10: $6000000 (Low: $4000000, High: $10000000)
Year 100: $2000000 (Low: $1000000, High: $5000000)
Key Considerations
- The initial costs may decrease over time as the processes become more streamlined and as U.S. personnel become accustomed to the new operations.
- Potential cost offsets could be achieved through shared funding mechanisms within U.N. operations and international coalitions.
- Geopolitical relations may influence the actual cost and savings balance, depending on international developments.