Policy Impact Analysis - 117/HR/7477

Bill Overview

Title: CERTS Tax Exemption Act

Description: This bill excludes from income taxation grants to assist providers of transportation services affected by COVID-19.

Sponsors: Rep. Panetta, Jimmy [D-CA-20]

Target Audience

Population: People employed by US-based transportation service providers affected by COVID-19

Estimated Size: 500000

Reasoning

Simulated Interviews

Owner of a Charter Bus Company (New York, NY)

Age: 52 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 3/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • The tax exemption would definitely help, as it allows us to retain more capital in the business.
  • We've been struggling to get back to pre-pandemic levels of business.
  • Any financial relief helps stabilize the workforce and maintain our fleet.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 6
Year 2 7 6
Year 3 7 6
Year 5 8 6
Year 10 8 6
Year 20 7 6

Bus Driver (Los Angeles, CA)

Age: 37 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 2.0 years

Commonness: 5/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • If the company saves money on taxes, perhaps they would be able to offer better job security or even raises.
  • We’ve heard that the company needs all the financial help it can get to avoid more layoffs.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 5
Year 2 6 5
Year 3 5 5
Year 5 5 5
Year 10 5 5
Year 20 5 5

Owner of a Passenger Vessel Company (Miami, FL)

Age: 45 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 0.0 years

Commonness: 7/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Since we didn’t receive any grant money, the tax exemption doesn’t impact us directly.
  • However, it could indirectly benefit the industry as a whole if larger players can stabilize.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 5
Year 2 5 5
Year 3 5 5
Year 5 5 5
Year 10 5 5
Year 20 5 5

School Bus Operator (Dallas, TX)

Age: 28 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 4

Duration of Impact: 3.0 years

Commonness: 6/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Tax savings could trickle down into maintaining jobs or maybe improving the fleet.
  • I’m hopeful that less tax burden on the company can contribute to better job stability.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 4
Year 2 5 4
Year 3 5 4
Year 5 4 4
Year 10 4 4
Year 20 4 4

CEO of Interstate Bus Company (Chicago, IL)

Age: 60 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 2/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • The tax exemption allows us to focus more on our expansion plans and sustaining new routes.
  • It's a welcome fiscal reprieve amid unpredictability in travel demand.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 8 7
Year 2 8 7
Year 3 8 7
Year 5 8 7
Year 10 9 7
Year 20 8 7

Manager at a Motorcoach Company (Seattle, WA)

Age: 33 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 4.0 years

Commonness: 4/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This exemption is certainly beneficial in planning for future seasons.
  • It could aid in rebuilding our operational capacity and perhaps in employee incentives.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 5
Year 2 6 5
Year 3 6 5
Year 5 6 5
Year 10 5 5
Year 20 5 5

Fleet Maintenance Worker (Orlando, FL)

Age: 41 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 0.0 years

Commonness: 7/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Our company didn't get the grant, so the exemption doesn't directly affect us.
  • I hope the overall industry stabilizing would lead to long-term job security.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 6
Year 2 6 6
Year 3 6 6
Year 5 6 6
Year 10 6 6
Year 20 6 6

Tour Bus Guide (Phoenix, AZ)

Age: 25 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 4

Duration of Impact: 2.0 years

Commonness: 5/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • The company’s edge in saving through taxed grants could potentially mean more work hours.
  • It’s been a tough couple of years, any positive change is welcome.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 4
Year 2 5 4
Year 3 5 4
Year 5 4 4
Year 10 4 4
Year 20 4 4

Owner of a Limo Service (Houston, TX)

Age: 50 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 0.0 years

Commonness: 8/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • As we didn’t get the grant, the tax exemption doesn’t affect us directly.
  • I hope the indirect effects would normalize business dynamics over the long run.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 5
Year 2 5 5
Year 3 5 5
Year 5 5 5
Year 10 5 5
Year 20 5 5

Operations Director at a Cross-Country Travel Service (San Francisco, CA)

Age: 48 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 3/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • The exemption from taxes could help us pivot back to pre-pandemic levels.
  • It’s a positive step for financial sustainability in challenging times.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 6
Year 2 7 6
Year 3 8 6
Year 5 8 6
Year 10 8 6
Year 20 7 6

Cost Estimates

Year 1: $200000000 (Low: $150000000, High: $250000000)

Year 2: $5000000 (Low: $4000000, High: $6000000)

Year 3: $1000000 (Low: $500000, High: $2000000)

Year 5: $100000 (Low: $50000, High: $150000)

Year 10: $10000 (Low: $5000, High: $15000)

Year 100: $1000 (Low: $500, High: $1500)

Key Considerations