Bill Overview
Title: Anti-Caravan Act of 2022
Description: This bill imposes criminal penalties on any individual who organizes or provides material support for a group of 25 or more non-U.S. nationals ( aliens under federal law) crossing international land borders with the intent to enter the United States without valid entry documents or lawful immigration status and in violation of any law. The bill also bars any non-U.S. national who participates in or organizes such a group from receiving any immigration benefit or status for specified periods of time.
Sponsors: Rep. Herrell, Yvette [R-NM-2]
Target Audience
Population: Individuals organizing or participating in unauthorized caravans intending to enter the U.S.
Estimated Size: 5000
- The bill focuses specifically on non-U.S. nationals attempting to cross into the U.S. in groups of 25 or more without documentation or legal status.
- Organizers of such groups are a primary target, as they would face criminal penalties.
- Participants in these caravans will also be directly impacted, as they would be barred from obtaining U.S. immigration benefits.
- The number of individuals involved in caravans is likely in the thousands based on historical movement flows and previous large-scale caravan formations.
Reasoning
- The policy is primarily targeted at non-U.S. nationals intending to cross the border illegally in organized groups. Thus, the most direct impacts are on this population, but there are also indirect effects on U.S. citizens who may be involved with these caravans.
- The U.S. citizens possibly indirectly affected are those who are sympathetic to the committees that organize aid for these caravans, either directly or through public advocacy.
- The policy could further stigmatize undocumented immigrants within the U.S., affecting their wellbeing due to the increased threat of legal action, even if they are not personally a direct target.
- Employers who unknowingly or knowingly employ non-U.S. nationals participating in such activities may face indirect operational or reputational impacts.
- Considering the potential legal and political fallout from the policy's implementation over 10 years, I selected a few representative profiles that reflect the indirect economic and social consequences on different stakeholders.
Simulated Interviews
Border Patrol Agent (Laredo, TX)
Age: 35 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 15/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This policy gives us more power to prevent illegal crossings, but it could strain our resources by increasing the workload.
- I believe enforcing stricter rules could deter future caravans.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 5 | 5 |
Human Rights Advocate (San Diego, CA)
Age: 28 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 10/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This bill is a direct attack on vulnerable populations seeking safety and better opportunities.
- It also criminalizes compassion and aid to those in need.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 4 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 3 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 3 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 4 | 6 |
Immigration Lawyer (Phoenix, AZ)
Age: 42 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 12/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The legal environment becomes more hostile and it complicates my cases.
- It will make families more desperate and limit my ability to help clients.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 7 |
Small Business Owner (Houston, TX)
Age: 50 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 2.0 years
Commonness: 18/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Tougher regulations might mean more scrutiny on my business activities and staff.
- It's going to affect workforce reliability.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 7 |
Community Organizer (El Paso, TX)
Age: 40 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 4.0 years
Commonness: 14/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The increased penalties lead to fear and distrust among the community.
- It will make community organizing more challenging.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 6 |
Recent College Graduate (Miami, FL)
Age: 25 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 13/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I worry for my family's safety and legal standing.
- The tension surrounding this policy heightens stress and anxiety within our household.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 4 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 4 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 4 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 5 | 5 |
University Researcher (New York, NY)
Age: 30 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 9
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 11/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This policy complicates research efforts aimed at understanding migration flows.
- It's likely to increase restricted access to valuable datasets on immigration.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 9 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 9 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 8 |
Truck Driver (Tucson, AZ)
Age: 32 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 17/20
Statement of Opinion:
- My job might be affected by increased time at border checks due to heightened enforcement measures.
- It could lead to economic strain from delays.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 7 |
Senator (Washington, D.C.)
Age: 58 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 7/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This policy aligns with national interest to secure borders and regulate legal immigration processes.
- It reflects my constituents' preferences for stricter border control.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 7 |
Public School Teacher (Los Angeles, CA)
Age: 45 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 4.0 years
Commonness: 16/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I'm worried about my students' wellbeing and attendance due to this heightened fear of deportation.
- The policy could also affect the psychological climate in my classroom.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 5 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 6 |
Cost Estimates
Year 1: $75000000 (Low: $50000000, High: $100000000)
Year 2: $76500000 (Low: $51000000, High: $102000000)
Year 3: $78030000 (Low: $52020000, High: $104040000)
Year 5: $81120000 (Low: $54080000, High: $108160000)
Year 10: $88830000 (Low: $59220000, High: $118440000)
Year 100: $136170000 (Low: $90780000, High: $181560000)
Key Considerations
- Complexity and cost of enforcement along international borders, particularly with large groups organized by individuals determined to circumvent legal processes.
- Legal proceedings and incarceration costs for individuals prosecuted under this bill.
- Potential unintended consequences on U.S. citizens unintentionally caught under the purview of this bill.
- International relations and humanitarian perspectives on the treatment and handling of large groups of migrants.