Bill Overview
Title: ONSHORE Manufacturing Act
Description: This bill sets forth provisions to support secure supply chains of rare earth elements. A rare earth element means a natural element associated with (1) the metallic element scandium, with atomic number 21; (2) the metallic element yttrium, with atomic number 39; or (3) any of the series of 15 metallic elements between lanthanum, with atomic number 57, and lutetium, with atomic number 71, on the periodic table.
Sponsors: Rep. Gonzales, Tony [R-TX-23]
Target Audience
Population: People dependent on products using rare earth elements
Estimated Size: 331000000
- Rare earth elements are critical materials used in numerous high-tech applications, including electronics, clean energy, and defense systems.
- There is a global interest in securing supply chains for these materials due to their importance in technology production and national security.
- Major producers of rare earth elements include China, which accounts for a large portion of global production, and other countries attempting to diversify sources such as the United States, Australia, and Canada.
- This legislation aims to promote onshore manufacturing of rare earth elements, which might impact global manufacturing and supply chain networks.
Reasoning
- The policy would mainly affect industries that heavily rely on rare earth elements, such as technology, automotive, and defense sectors. People working in or dependent on these industries would likely see the most significant impact.
- The broader populace may experience indirect effects through potential changes in costs or availability of products using rare earth elements.
- The policy may not significantly affect those who are less reliant on high-tech products or whose professions don't depend on these industries.
- Geographically, areas with rare earth mining operations may experience economic growth, potentially influencing local well-being scores.
- Given that the policy focuses on manufacturing and supply chains, professionals in these fields may notice shifts in job opportunities or stability.
Simulated Interviews
Software Engineer (San Jose, CA)
Age: 45 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 12/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The policy could increase the cost of hardware development initially.
- In the long run, it might stabilize supply chains and reduce dependency on foreign materials.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 8 |
Electric Vehicle Technician (Denver, CO)
Age: 35 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 15.0 years
Commonness: 8/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This policy should help us with a more reliable supply for vehicle batteries.
- I hope it leads to more job stability.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 7 |
Retired Factory Worker (Detroit, MI)
Age: 60 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 15/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I see this as a chance to revive the local manufacturing industry.
- It could bring new jobs if implemented well.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 5 | 5 |
Smartphone App Developer (Raleigh, NC)
Age: 28 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 14/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The policy could mean more consistent access to the latest tech.
- I worry about short-term costs but optimistic for long-term benefits.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 8 |
Gaming Technology Manager (Las Vegas, NV)
Age: 50 | Gender: other
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 8.0 years
Commonness: 10/20
Statement of Opinion:
- A domestic supply chain could make advancing gaming technology smoother.
- Initial disruptions might be a potential risk.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 7 |
Local Politician (Lynchburg, VA)
Age: 42 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 18/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This policy aligns with my goals of boosting local economy.
- Promoting onshore manufacturing is essential for growth.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 7 |
PhD Student in Material Science (Seattle, WA)
Age: 25 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 9
Duration of Impact: 4.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I'm excited about the potential for research funding this policy might bring.
- I think it will stimulate innovation in material sciences.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 2 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 3 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 8 |
Defense Contractor (Houston, TX)
Age: 33 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 12.0 years
Commonness: 9/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This policy should improve national security and reduce logistic headaches.
- I'm optimistic about the stability it promises.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 8 |
Senior Citizen (Phoenix, AZ)
Age: 55 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 20/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I'm concerned about possible price hikes in electronics I rely on.
- A stable supply could mean fewer disruptions long-term.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 6 |
Financial Analyst (New York, NY)
Age: 29 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 6.0 years
Commonness: 16/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The policy could create new investment opportunities
- I'm eager to see how this influences the tech market.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 8 |
Cost Estimates
Year 1: $1500000000 (Low: $1000000000, High: $2000000000)
Year 2: $1350000000 (Low: $900000000, High: $1800000000)
Year 3: $1200000000 (Low: $800000000, High: $1600000000)
Year 5: $1000000000 (Low: $700000000, High: $1300000000)
Year 10: $800000000 (Low: $600000000, High: $1000000000)
Year 100: $500000000 (Low: $300000000, High: $700000000)
Key Considerations
- Rare earth minerals are strategic commodities critical to technology and defense, impacting national security.
- China currently dominates rare earth production and processing; domestic production could mitigate geopolitical risks.
- Initial costs are high but decrease over time as infrastructure is established and economies of scale are achieved.
- Environmental regulations associated with mining and processing need to be considered, potentially affecting cost estimates.