Bill Overview
Title: Hold CCP Accountable Act of 2022
Description: This bill imposes certain restrictions related to China. For example, the bill (1) generally prohibits investments in certain Chinese military companies and entities reasonably believed to be involved in activities contrary to U.S. national security or foreign policy interests; (2) withdraws normal trade relations treatment from China and expands the bases of ineligibility for this treatment to include specified human rights violations by China; and (3) requires the Department of the Treasury to instruct the U.S. executive directors at certain multilateral development banks, such as the Asian Development Bank, to oppose providing a loan, financial assistance, or technical assistance to China.
Sponsors: Rep. Fitzpatrick, Brian K. [R-PA-1]
Target Audience
Population: Individuals globally involved in, depending on, or influenced by US-China trade and investments, particularly in Chinese military related industries
Estimated Size: 10000000
- The bill targets economic and financial activities connected to Chinese military and certain government entities, so it directly affects Chinese industries related to these domains.
- US investors and companies involved with these Chinese entities will be affected due to prohibitions on investments.
- Global entities, including other countries' investors, dealing with Chinese firms targeted by this Act, may be impacted indirectly.
- The proposed changes in trade relations can influence businesses globally that engage in trade activities between the US and China.
- The bill has implications on multilateral development banks' policies towards China, affecting projects funded by these banks in which China is involved.
Reasoning
- The population most likely affected includes US businesses involved in trade with China, investors in Chinese markets, and Blue-Collar workers in industries affected by trade policies.
- Given the modest budget allocation, the policy's direct impact is likely limited to the financial sectors and related stakeholders primarily.
- It is essential to generate a diverse sample that reflects varied socio-economic statuses, locations, and involvements with the economic activities targeted by the policy.
Simulated Interviews
Financial analyst (California)
Age: 45 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I'm concerned about the potential loss in investment returns.
- Diversifying portfolios away from affected sectors may reduce short-term profits.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 8 |
Supply chain manager (Texas)
Age: 30 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 2.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Supply disruptions could impact product availability.
- Need to find alternative suppliers quickly.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 6 |
Retailer - Import goods (New York)
Age: 54 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 1.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This policy might increase costs and reduce margins.
- Customary trading conditions are more favorable for small businesses.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 5 | 6 |
Software Engineer (Florida)
Age: 39 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Collaboration may be hampered by regulatory changes.
- Long-term projects could be delayed.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 8 |
Student (Washington)
Age: 28 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 4.0 years
Commonness: 8/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Policy changes are a learning opportunity in economic diplomacy and trade trends.
- Concern about job prospects in affected industries.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 8 |
Retired (Illinois)
Age: 62 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 2.0 years
Commonness: 6/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Uncertain market conditions can affect my income.
- My financial advisor is reviewing the portfolio to minimize risk.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 7 |
Machinist (Ohio)
Age: 41 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 7/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Prices for materials may rise, affecting job demand.
- Our company might shift sourcing to local suppliers.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 6 |
Logistics Coordinator (South Carolina)
Age: 50 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Shipping costs might increase, impacting company profitability.
- Need to navigate new regulations carefully.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 6 |
Tech Entrepreneur (Colorado)
Age: 36 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 9
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- New regulations could complicate market entry in China.
- Focus may need to shift to non-targeted Asian markets.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 2 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 3 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 9 |
NGO Worker (Georgia)
Age: 47 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 0.0 years
Commonness: 9/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This policy underlines a significant stance on human rights.
- Balancing security and economic growth is crucial.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 7 |
Cost Estimates
Year 1: $50000000 (Low: $30000000, High: $70000000)
Year 2: $52000000 (Low: $31000000, High: $73000000)
Year 3: $54080000 (Low: $32030000, High: $76120000)
Year 5: $58320000 (Low: $34530000, High: $82260000)
Year 10: $67900000 (Low: $40050000, High: $95860000)
Year 100: $250000000 (Low: $150000000, High: $350000000)
Key Considerations
- The bill's trade restrictions could lead to higher costs for U.S. businesses that rely on Chinese imports.
- Adjustment periods for businesses and financial markets may cause short-term disruptions.
- Potential geopolitical implications and responses from China, which could affect the economic landscape.
- Compliance costs for businesses needing to adjust their investment strategies.