Bill Overview
Title: Updated Standards for Asylum (USA) Act of 2022
Description: This bill modifies standards and requirements related to individuals seeking asylum. The bill amends the definition of credible fear of persecution to require that such fear can be established by statements that are more probable than not. The bill also imposes certain rules relating to credible fear interviews, including requirements for recordings and interpreters. If an alien is granted asylum because of fear of persecution in a country, the alien shall be deemed to have renounced asylum status by returning to that country, if there has been no change in the country's conditions. Any individual who knowingly and willfully makes materially false statements or uses fraudulent documents in asylum-related proceedings shall be fined or imprisoned up to 10 years, or both.
Sponsors: Rep. Carter, John R. [R-TX-31]
Target Audience
Population: People seeking or granted asylum in the United States
Estimated Size: 300000
- Asylum seekers globally may be affected due to stricter criteria for credible fear.
- The number of people seeking asylum in the U.S. annually (around 100-200k) would directly be influenced by these changes.
- Many refugees worldwide who consider the U.S. as a potential asylum nation will need to re-evaluate their eligibility.
- People who have already been granted asylum may be at risk of losing their status upon returning to their home countries without change in conditions.
Reasoning
- Given the number of asylum seekers into the U.S., the policy will have an apparent effect mostly on new entrants who need to meet the stricter standards.
- People who are already granted asylum but return to their country might lose their status, affecting their wellbeing negatively.
- Asylum seekers represent a diverse group, including different countries and personal situations, the impact of policy will vary greatly across the population.
- The budget constraint suggests a limitation on how much infrastructure and human resources can be improved, affecting implementation speed and effectiveness.
- Stricter standards and penalties could dissuade fraudulent claims, indirectly affecting those in desperate situations and possibly deterring real claims due to fear of procedural issues.
- It's crucial to simulate potential changes for both those aiming to apply for asylum and those who have received asylum but recently visited their home country.
- The current estimated number of asylum seekers trying to gain entry suggests that significant numbers might find these changes impactful.
Simulated Interviews
Day laborer (New York, NY)
Age: 34 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 15/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The policy seems confusing and makes it harder for people like me.
- I am worried about being recorded in interviews and any mistakes being used against me.
- The new definition of 'credible fear' feels like it's harder to meet.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 3 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 3 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 3 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 4 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 5 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 9 |
Restaurant worker (Chicago, IL)
Age: 28 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 8/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This makes the process seem more anxious, I'm not sure I'll be able to pass the interview.
- If I go back to El Salvador, it would be trouble for me due to gangs.
- Fear of false accusations with stricter penalties now hampers seeking help.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 9 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 10 |
Healthcare assistant (Houston, TX)
Age: 40 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 20.0 years
Commonness: 10/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I worry about visiting family; will doing so revoke my asylum?
- Policies are harsh but there's less concern since I've integrated here.
- If return is perceived unfavorably, I might need legal counsel.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 9 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 10 | 10 |
Business owner (Miami, FL)
Age: 50 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 9
Duration of Impact: 0.0 years
Commonness: 12/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Changes don't largely affect me, but set a difficult path for new arrivals.
- The record and fraudulent focus feels unjustified.
- The U.S. response to asylum should focus on humanity.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 2 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 3 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 10 | 10 | 10 |
| Year 20 | 10 | 10 |
Student (Los Angeles, CA)
Age: 22 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 7/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Being young, this policy scares me, it's like my future's dangling.
- Education holds hope but living with fear is hard.
- Every change seems to make it harder for people like me.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 4 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 10 |
Software developer (San Francisco, CA)
Age: 30 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 10/20
Statement of Opinion:
- It's good to have a legal pathway but the policy is becoming narrow.
- The recordings could help, but also gives a feeling of judicial stress.
- Visitations to sick family are rarer due to policy restraints.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 9 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 10 |
Taxi driver (Phoenix, AZ)
Age: 45 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 4
Duration of Impact: 1.0 years
Commonness: 14/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This feels like a cloud over our heads; it's frightening.
- The U.S. was hope, but now uncertainty shadows each day.
- Earnings are scant, worry makes every job seem uncertain.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 3 | 4 |
| Year 2 | 3 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 4 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 4 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 5 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 8 |
Retail worker (Seattle, WA)
Age: 25 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 2.0 years
Commonness: 6/20
Statement of Opinion:
- It's a challenge balancing mothering and navigating this tough process.
- Fear of missing an interview step is real; every word matters now.
- Without clear documentation, it's intimidating facing authorities.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 3 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 3 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 3 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 4 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 5 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 9 |
NGO worker (San Diego, CA)
Age: 38 | Gender: other
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 9/20
Statement of Opinion:
- From an administrative view, policy sounds deterrent.
- False statements penalty requires rigorous understanding for applicants.
- We aim to support many, but fear policies add to our difficulties.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 9 |
Farm worker (Dallas, TX)
Age: 33 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 4
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 14/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Farm work is hard, and now this policy makes asylum tougher.
- Recording interviews add pressure, need assurance on transcripts.
- Seems this plan scares people, fosters further covert living.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 3 | 4 |
| Year 2 | 3 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 4 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 5 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 5 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 9 |
Cost Estimates
Year 1: $250000000 (Low: $200000000, High: $300000000)
Year 2: $260000000 (Low: $210000000, High: $310000000)
Year 3: $270000000 (Low: $220000000, High: $320000000)
Year 5: $290000000 (Low: $240000000, High: $340000000)
Year 10: $320000000 (Low: $270000000, High: $370000000)
Year 100: $600000000 (Low: $500000000, High: $700000000)
Key Considerations
- Implementation costs are significant due to required changes in immigration infrastructure and processes.
- Potential savings are likely from reduced numbers of asylum grants and decreased fraudulent applications.
- The long-term social and economic impacts, particularly relating to community and demographic effects within the U.S., need consideration.
- Legal challenges might arise from these changes, affecting cost and implementation timelines.