Policy Impact Analysis - 117/HR/7437

Bill Overview

Title: No Timber From Tyrants Act

Description: This bill prohibits the importation of wood and related articles from Russia and Belarus. It also directs the Department of the Interior and the Department of Agriculture (USDA) to replace these prohibited imports with timber production on certain lands. Specifically, the bill directs the President to prohibit the importation of all wood and related articles from Russia and Belarus. The President may terminate this prohibition upon certification to Congress that certain conditions have been met, including that Russia or Belarus (or both, as applicable) reached an agreement to withdraw forces in Ukraine. Additionally, the bill directs Interior and USDA to authorize timber harvest in an amount sufficient to equal the volume, with respect to calendar year 2021, of imports of wood and related articles from Russia and Belarus. Interior may authorize timber harvest only on public lands and USDA may authorize timber harvest only on National Forest System lands. The bill generally prohibits Interior and USDA from approving a plan that reduces the allowable sale quantity of timber.

Sponsors: Rep. Westerman, Bruce [R-AR-4]

Target Audience

Population: People affected by the prohibition of timber imports from Russia and Belarus and increased U.S. timber production

Estimated Size: 5000000

Reasoning

Simulated Interviews

Timber industry worker (Portland, Oregon)

Age: 45 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 10/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I'm hopeful because more local timber work means more reliable employment for us.
  • The ban seems necessary for political reasons, but I hope we handle our forests responsibly.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 6
Year 2 7 6
Year 3 7 5
Year 5 6 5
Year 10 5 4
Year 20 5 4

Environmental activist (Boulder, Colorado)

Age: 35 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 8/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Increased logging is a direct threat to our forests and biodiversity.
  • While I understand the geopolitical reasons, we must find balanced solutions.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 4 5
Year 2 4 5
Year 3 4 5
Year 5 3 5
Year 10 2 5
Year 20 2 5

Furniture manufacturer (Atlanta, Georgia)

Age: 50 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 3.0 years

Commonness: 11/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I worry about the impact on timber prices, as it could affect production costs.
  • If US timber production ramps up, it might stabilize the market.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 7 6
Year 3 6 6
Year 5 6 5
Year 10 6 5
Year 20 6 5

Artist (New York, New York)

Age: 28 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 8

Duration of Impact: 2.0 years

Commonness: 7/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I'm concerned about how the policy might limit the diversity of available wood for my projects.
  • An increase in domestic timber could potentially be beneficial, subject to quality.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 8
Year 2 8 8
Year 3 8 8
Year 5 8 8
Year 10 8 8
Year 20 8 8

Retired forestry engineer (Seattle, Washington)

Age: 63 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 15/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I'm cautiously optimistic about jobs in the field for young professionals.
  • Protection of our natural resources should remain a priority.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 6
Year 2 7 6
Year 3 7 6
Year 5 6 5
Year 10 6 5
Year 20 5 5

Construction project manager (Chicago, Illinois)

Age: 40 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 1.5 years

Commonness: 13/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Changes in wood supply can affect project timelines and budgets.
  • Domestic production could ensure more stability if managed correctly.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 7 6
Year 3 7 6
Year 5 6 5
Year 10 6 5
Year 20 5 4

Graduate student (Spokane, Washington)

Age: 22 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 9/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Increased logging could negatively impact climate change mitigation efforts.
  • Data-driven policies that prioritize sustainability are crucial.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 6
Year 2 5 6
Year 3 5 6
Year 5 4 6
Year 10 3 6
Year 20 3 6

Home builder (Austin, Texas)

Age: 55 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 8

Duration of Impact: 3.0 years

Commonness: 12/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • An unreliable supply chain for timber is concerning for future projects.
  • The increase in domestic production may help in the long run.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 8 8
Year 2 8 7
Year 3 7 7
Year 5 7 6
Year 10 7 6
Year 20 7 6

Office worker in timber company (Missoula, Montana)

Age: 30 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 10/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Business could see growth with increased logging, offering job security.
  • Need to balance economic growth with ecological protection.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 8 7
Year 2 8 7
Year 3 8 7
Year 5 7 6
Year 10 7 5
Year 20 6 5

Librarian (Madison, Wisconsin)

Age: 60 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 2.0 years

Commonness: 14/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I worry about the environmental impact of increased timber production.
  • Conservation practices should accompany increased logging activities.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 7
Year 2 6 7
Year 3 6 7
Year 5 5 6
Year 10 5 6
Year 20 4 5

Cost Estimates

Year 1: $20000000 (Low: $10000000, High: $50000000)

Year 2: $18000000 (Low: $9000000, High: $45000000)

Year 3: $18000000 (Low: $9000000, High: $45000000)

Year 5: $16000000 (Low: $8000000, High: $40000000)

Year 10: $15000000 (Low: $7000000, High: $35000000)

Year 100: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)

Key Considerations