Policy Impact Analysis - 117/HR/7402

Bill Overview

Title: No U.S. Financing for Iran Act of 2022

Description: This bill prohibits certain actions related to exports, imports, and financing with respect to Iran. Specifically, the bill prohibits the Department of the Treasury from authorizing U.S. financial institution transactions in connection with the importation from or exportation to Iran of goods, services, or technology. This prohibition does not apply to the sale of agricultural commodities, food, medicine, or medical devices benefitting the civilian population of Iran. The bill requires Treasury to instruct U.S. representatives to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to (1) oppose IMF financial assistance, and the allocation of Special Drawing Rights (SDR), to Iran; and (2) seek to ensure that IMF member countries prohibit the exchange of SDR held by Iran. (The SDR is an international reserve asset maintained by the IMF based on contributions from IMF member countries. SDRs may be exchanged between member countries and may also be exchanged for currencies.) Further, the bill provides statutory authority for the prohibition on Export-Import Bank financing with respect to Iran. The bill's provisions shall be in effect until the earlier of (1) 30 days after the President certifies to Congress that Iran has ceased providing support for acts of international terrorism and is not a jurisdiction of primary money laundering concern, (2) 30 days after Treasury reports to Congress that termination of the provisions is necessary to comply with treaties ratified by the United States, or (3) 10 years after this bill's enactment.

Sponsors: Rep. Huizenga, Bill [R-MI-2]

Target Audience

Population: People in Iran

Estimated Size: 3000000

Reasoning

Simulated Interviews

Banker (New York, NY)

Age: 45 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 8

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 5/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This policy will restrict some of the work we do involving Iranian transactions, leading to a loss in business.
  • We may need to refocus our resources on other international markets.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 8
Year 2 7 8
Year 3 7 8
Year 5 7 8
Year 10 7 8
Year 20 7 8

Importer (Los Angeles, CA)

Age: 32 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 2/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • My business might suffer due to the inability to carry out financial transactions with Iranian partners.
  • This policy feels limiting and will require us to find workarounds or new markets.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 7
Year 2 5 7
Year 3 5 7
Year 5 5 7
Year 10 5 7
Year 20 5 7

Software Developer (Houston, TX)

Age: 29 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 8

Duration of Impact: 0.0 years

Commonness: 10/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This policy does not affect me directly as neither my personal nor professional life involves transactions with Iran.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 8 8
Year 2 8 8
Year 3 8 8
Year 5 8 8
Year 10 8 8
Year 20 8 8

Retired (Chicago, IL)

Age: 57 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 4/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This policy worries me as it could affect my family's well-being in Iran.
  • I'm worried about the broader economic effects on my community back home.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 6
Year 2 5 6
Year 3 6 6
Year 5 6 6
Year 10 6 6
Year 20 6 6

Policy Analyst (Washington, D.C.)

Age: 39 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 3/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This policy aligns with my work, providing a framework to analyze U.S. foreign policy impacts.
  • It's a relevant development that may necessitate a shift in focus or strategy in my field.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 7 7
Year 3 7 7
Year 5 7 7
Year 10 7 7
Year 20 7 7

Export Consultant (Miami, FL)

Age: 62 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 3.0 years

Commonness: 3/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This policy might slightly alter my consulting work, especially if clients inquire about Iran.
  • However, my main focus is not on Middle Eastern markets.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 7 7
Year 3 7 7
Year 5 7 7
Year 10 7 7
Year 20 7 7

Graduate Student (San Francisco, CA)

Age: 25 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 9

Duration of Impact: 0.0 years

Commonness: 8/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I see this policy primarily as a case study for my international trade course.
  • It doesn't have a direct impact on my day-to-day life but is intellectually stimulating.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 9 9
Year 2 9 9
Year 3 9 9
Year 5 9 9
Year 10 9 9
Year 20 9 9

Tech Entrepreneur (Seattle, WA)

Age: 50 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 8

Duration of Impact: 2.0 years

Commonness: 3/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • While this policy might restrict certain Middle Eastern investment channels, it isn't critically impacting at the moment.
  • My focus remains largely on domestic and other international markets.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 8
Year 2 7 8
Year 3 8 8
Year 5 8 8
Year 10 8 8
Year 20 8 8

College Professor (Boston, MA)

Age: 40 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 0.0 years

Commonness: 6/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This U.S. policy is something I'll now include in my curriculum.
  • It's an example of recent legislative impacts on international relations.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 7 7
Year 3 7 7
Year 5 7 7
Year 10 7 7
Year 20 7 7

Small Business Owner (Atlanta, GA)

Age: 48 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 3/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This puts a strain on getting some unique imports that our customers like.
  • We might need to seek alternatives that may cost more or not fit as well.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 6
Year 2 5 6
Year 3 6 6
Year 5 6 6
Year 10 6 6
Year 20 6 6

Cost Estimates

Year 1: $75000000 (Low: $50000000, High: $100000000)

Year 2: $76000000 (Low: $51000000, High: $101000000)

Year 3: $77000000 (Low: $52000000, High: $102000000)

Year 5: $79000000 (Low: $54000000, High: $104000000)

Year 10: $85000000 (Low: $60000000, High: $110000000)

Year 100: $85000000 (Low: $60000000, High: $110000000)

Key Considerations