Bill Overview
Title: ACES Act
Description: This bill requires the Department of State to devise and implement a plan to mitigate any potential risk to the U.S. financial system posed by the adoption of a cryptocurrency as legal tender in El Salvador and any other country that uses the U.S. dollar as legal tender. The State Department must report to Congress on this plan and on various issues relating to El Salvador's adoption of Bitcoin as legal tender.
Sponsors: Rep. Torres, Norma J. [D-CA-35]
Target Audience
Population: People in El Salvador and other USD-using countries
Estimated Size: 73000000
- The ACES Act is directly concerned with the use of cryptocurrency as legal tender in El Salvador and other countries using the US dollar as legal tender.
- The total population of El Salvador as of 2023 is estimated to be around 6.5 million people.
- Approximately 70% of El Salvador's population is unbanked, which means the introduction of Bitcoin as legal tender could significantly impact this group.
- Other countries using USD as legal tender include Ecuador, Timor-Leste, and various Caribbean nations.
- The global population living in countries using the USD as legal tender besides the US could be estimated by considering these other countries.
Reasoning
- The ACES Act is primarily focused on assessing and managing any financial risks to the US financial system resulting from El Salvador's and potentially other countries' adoption of Bitcoin as legal tender.
- A diverse set of interviewees should include individuals who are directly involved in cryptocurrency, those in financial services, and general US citizens.
- The policy has a limited budget, indicating that direct impact on individual Americans might be minimal except for those closely related to financial sectors.
- Considering the global population using USD and the American target population, the interviews should also focus on how people perceive the ripple effects of cryptocurrency policies abroad.
- The 20 million global estimate highlights the potential for reduced financial uncertainties globally, including the foreseen moderation of risks in remittances.
Simulated Interviews
Cryptocurrency Trader (New York, NY)
Age: 35 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I'm aware of the policy and believe it's essential to safeguard the US financial system.
- Cryptocurrency regulations often seem reactive, and more foresight is necessary.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 7 |
Financial Analyst (San Francisco, CA)
Age: 42 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This policy is crucial for preemptive risk management.
- I believe understanding foreign crypto regulations will help stabilize US financial interests.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 9 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 6 |
Tech Entrepreneur (Austin, TX)
Age: 29 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 1.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Crypto policies often create challenges but also opportunities for my business.
- The focus should be on innovation rather than restriction.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 6 |
Professor of Economics (Chicago, IL)
Age: 58 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 0.0 years
Commonness: 2/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This policy is a step in the right direction towards understanding macroeconomic impacts of crypto.
- I'm skeptical about its long-term effects without broader international coordination.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 7 |
Graduate Student (Seattle, WA)
Age: 25 | Gender: other
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 0.0 years
Commonness: 6/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Policies like the ACES Act are necessary but may not address the core issues.
- International cooperation is essential, not just unilateral actions.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 5 | 5 |
Small Business Owner (Miami, FL)
Age: 50 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 2.0 years
Commonness: 7/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I am not heavily involved in crypto, but I think policies that help reduce risks are positive.
- My business could benefit indirectly from a more stable financial environment.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 6 |
Software Developer (Atlanta, GA)
Age: 37 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 2.0 years
Commonness: 8/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I am cautiously optimistic about the value of such policies.
- They must be flexible enough to adapt to new realities in the tech world.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 6 |
Investor (Boston, MA)
Age: 28 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- My concern is mostly on how regulations affect my investment strategy.
- Clear policies can provide confidence but over-regulation could stifle growth.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 6 |
Accountant (Denver, CO)
Age: 45 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Clients are often concerned with how policies will affect their portfolios.
- Such policies can clarify tax implications, which is beneficial.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 9 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 9 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 10 | 6 |
Freelancer (Las Vegas, NV)
Age: 32 | Gender: other
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 9/20
Statement of Opinion:
- While I appreciate the transparency effort, over-regulation is a threat to decentralization.
- The impacts of these decisions on pay models and the gig economy are huge but uncertain.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 6 |
Cost Estimates
Year 1: $10000000 (Low: $7000000, High: $15000000)
Year 2: $9000000 (Low: $6000000, High: $13000000)
Year 3: $9500000 (Low: $6500000, High: $14000000)
Year 5: $10000000 (Low: $7000000, High: $15000000)
Year 10: $10500000 (Low: $7500000, High: $16000000)
Year 100: $11000000 (Low: $8000000, High: $17000000)
Key Considerations
- Determining the actual risk posed by cryptocurrency adoption in other countries is complex and uncertain.
- The cost of contracting expert analysts could fluctuate based on the prevailing state of cryptocurrency regulation and market dynamics.
- The scope of the State Department's plan could lead to varying costs depending on the extensiveness of the measures implemented.
- Monitoring a range of countries that might adopt cryptocurrencies as legal tender would require ongoing evaluation.