Bill Overview
Title: AXIS Act
Description: This bill requires the Department of State to periodically report to Congress on whether and how China's government, the Chinese Communist Party, or any other Chinese entity has provided support for Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The report must address specified matters, including any efforts to (1) help Russia's government or Russian entities evade sanctions or export controls, (2) provide Russia with technology to support Russia's military or intelligence capabilities, or (3) further Russia's disinformation and propaganda efforts.
Sponsors: Rep. Barr, Andy [R-KY-6]
Target Audience
Population: People living in China and Russia
Estimated Size: 20000000
- The bill focuses on activities and support provided by China's government or enterprises to Russia.
- This involves assessing potential military, technological, and information support that could affect geopolitical dynamics.
- A significant impact is on government agencies, particularly intelligence and foreign affairs divisions who conduct these assessments.
- The findings could influence U.S. and global diplomatic and economic strategies in dealing with China and Russia.
- Indirectly, the populations of Ukraine and neighboring countries might be affected depending on the level of support and consequential military actions.
Reasoning
- The AXIS Act primarily influences government and political sectors, particularly involving intelligence and foreign policy experts.
- Most directly impacted are professionals in U.S. Departments and agencies that gather intelligence and deal with foreign relations.
- Indirect effects might reach broader populations due to changes in U.S. foreign policy and the economic impact of potential sanctions and trade shifts.
- The average U.S. citizen may indirectly feel the impact in terms of national security and economic conditions but will likely be affected to a low extent.
- It's critical to include diverse perspectives including politicians, policy advisors, economic forecasters, and the general public to understand the wide-ranging effects.
Simulated Interviews
Policy Advisor (Washington D.C.)
Age: 43 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The AXIS Act is a significant step in assessing potential threats and influences from China on global stability.
- The insights from these reports could drastically shape future U.S. foreign policy decisions.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 4 |
Tech Industry Analyst (San Francisco, CA)
Age: 37 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 7.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Implementation of the AXIS Act might complicate tech relations with China.
- This could lead to tighter regulations affecting the tech market and innovation.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 4 |
International Trade Consultant (New York, NY)
Age: 50 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 7/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The AXIS Act's findings could shift trade policies and tariffs, impacting international business protocols.
- Corporations may need to rethink their strategies if the act leads to actions against China's economic actions.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 4 |
PhD Student in Political Science (Chicago, IL)
Age: 29 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This act provides rich material for academic analysis and study in international relations.
- It may illuminate potential shifts in global power structures.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 5 | 4 |
Energy Sector Executive (Houston, TX)
Age: 52 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 4.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The AXIS Act could affect energy markets if it leads to a shift in international alliances.
- The energy sector needs to prepare for changes in trade routes or resources availability depending on geopolitical shifts.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 5 |
Financial Analyst (New York, NY)
Age: 45 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 6.0 years
Commonness: 6/20
Statement of Opinion:
- If the AXIS Act identifies actions leading to sanctions, this could affect global markets and trade relations.
- Financial markets need to anticipate and adapt to increased volatility.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 5 | 4 |
Social Activist (Boston, MA)
Age: 28 | Gender: other
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The AXIS Act might shed light on alliances and conflicts, helping my advocacy work focus on areas needing attention.
- There's a risk it might escalate tensions if the findings lead to confrontations.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 5 | 4 |
| Year 20 | 4 | 3 |
Small Business Owner (Seattle, WA)
Age: 31 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 8/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The findings of the AXIS Act could impact my business if trade regulations are altered.
- There is anxiety over potential price increases or supply chain disruptions.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 4 |
| Year 20 | 5 | 3 |
Media Executive (Los Angeles, CA)
Age: 56 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Covering the AXIS Act allows industry insight into U.S. foreign policy and international affairs.
- It provides new content and perspectives for media coverage, affecting audience engagement.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 5 |
Foreign Affairs Correspondent (Miami, FL)
Age: 46 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 7.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The AXIS Act is crucial for understanding China's global strategy, impacting national security narratives.
- My role is to analyze and communicate these complexities clearly to the public.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 4 |
Cost Estimates
Year 1: $7500000 (Low: $5000000, High: $10000000)
Year 2: $8000000 (Low: $5500000, High: $10500000)
Year 3: $8500000 (Low: $6000000, High: $11000000)
Year 5: $9500000 (Low: $7000000, High: $12000000)
Year 10: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)
Year 100: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)
Key Considerations
- The need for increased inter-agency coordination and collaboration to produce accurate and timely reports.
- Potential diplomatic tensions with China and implications on international relations.
- Possible extension of the policy if geopolitical tensions persist and further scrutiny is required.