Bill Overview
Title: To prohibit the use of Federal funds to support or facilitate the participation of the Russian Federation in the Group of Seven, and for other purposes.
Description: This bill prohibits using federal funds to support or facilitate (1) Russia's participation in a Group of Seven (G-7) proceeding, or (2) a reconstituted Group of Eight (G-8) that includes Russia. (The G-7 is an informal group consisting of seven of the world's largest advanced economies. In 2014, the G-8 became the G-7 when Russia 's membership was suspended following Russia's annexation of the Crimea region of Ukraine.)
Sponsors: Rep. Keating, William R. [D-MA-9]
Target Audience
Population: Russian citizens and those indirectly linked to Russia's global diplomatic relationships
Estimated Size: 50000
- The G-7, consisting of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States, represents seven of the world's largest advanced economies.
- By excluding Russia from participating in the G-7 or any new G-8 format, it impacts Russia's diplomatic and economic engagements globally.
- Such a bill reflects and reinforces sanctions and diplomatic pressures that have been levied against Russia since 2014.
- The impact will predominantly affect Russian leadership and political figures who engage in G-7 related diplomatic and policy dialogues.
- It can also affect businesses and economies connected to or reliant on Russia's integration with other G-7 economies.
Reasoning
- Considering the limited budget of $200,000 in the first year and $2,000,000 over 10 years, direct impacts on U.S. citizens are unlikely to be immediately visible, as the funds are not allocated to affect domestic programs directly.
- Among the potential 50,000 American citizens identified as potentially affected, these include individuals and businesses with economic ties to Russia or interests in diplomatic policies involving Russia.
- The common public might not directly feel changes, but specific sectors, such as companies with strong Russian market connections or individuals with cultural ties, may have heightened awareness or concern.
- The policy affects those engaged more deeply in international affairs or global economics, particularly those in roles facilitating foreign policy, trade, and diplomacy.
Simulated Interviews
International Trade Consultant (New York, NY)
Age: 45 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- While I understand the geopolitical reasons for such a policy, it complicates my work with Russian markets.
- It may deter some clients who are wary of increased political tension.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 8 |
Software Developer (Chicago, IL)
Age: 32 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Globally, I see why this decision was made but it potentially impacts the startup's expansion plans.
- I'm concerned about the potential for increased economic isolation of Russia.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 9 |
Graduate Student (San Francisco, CA)
Age: 27 | Gender: other
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This policy is vital in maintaining international pressure, a significant case for my thesis.
- I’m curious about the long-term effects on diplomatic relations.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 9 |
Oil Industry Executive (Dallas, TX)
Age: 50 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 15.0 years
Commonness: 2/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Such sanctions complicate business strategies, potentially disrupting supply channels.
- This adds to the geopolitical risk we have to manage.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 9 |
Finance Analyst (Los Angeles, CA)
Age: 40 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The consistency of foreign policy is crucial for minimizing market volatility.
- Long-term implications for investors who engage in Russian markets are substantial.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 9 |
Retired Diplomat (Washington D.C.)
Age: 65 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 9
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 1/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This aligns with global efforts to hold Russia accountable, reinforcing a diplomatic stand.
- It reflects similar actions I advocated during my career.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 2 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 9 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 9 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 9 |
College Student (Boston, MA)
Age: 22 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 2.0 years
Commonness: 10/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I'm not directly affected, but it's interesting to learn how such policies shape global economics.
- I hope it’s beneficial or at least neutral for future global relations.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 9 |
Import/Export Business Owner (Miami, FL)
Age: 43 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 8.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This could complexify logistics and increase costs for my company with Russian suppliers.
- I'm considering contingency plans.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 4 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 8 |
Cultural Exchange Program Director (Seattle, WA)
Age: 56 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 4.0 years
Commonness: 2/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Cultural diplomacy is a valuable form of soft power, and policies like this can unintentionally hinder it.
- I'm cautious but hopeful it does not affect cultural collaborations.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 9 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 9 |
Energy Policy Analyst (Houston, TX)
Age: 30 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This is a significant move impacting energy geopolitics, potentially reshaping supply lines and partnerships.
- I've been expecting shifts in policy direction.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 9 |
Cost Estimates
Year 1: $200000 (Low: $100000, High: $300000)
Year 2: $200000 (Low: $100000, High: $300000)
Year 3: $200000 (Low: $100000, High: $300000)
Year 5: $200000 (Low: $100000, High: $300000)
Year 10: $200000 (Low: $100000, High: $300000)
Year 100: $200000 (Low: $100000, High: $300000)
Key Considerations
- Enforcement mechanisms for the prohibition could require minor administrative costs.
- Impacts are primarily within the domain of international policy rather than economic policy, minimizing direct economic effects.
- Continued non-participation of Russia aligns with existing U.S. foreign policy stances and sanctions.