Bill Overview
Title: Prohibit Venezuelan Oil Importation Act
Description: This bill requires the President to prohibit the importation of petroleum products from Venezuela. Petroleum product means crude oil, residual fuel oil, or any refined petroleum product, including natural gas liquid product. The President may modify or remove the prohibition for some or all petroleum products only if specified conditions are met. Among these conditions, the President must (1) reimplement and maintain sanctions imposed against Venezuela's state-owned oil company, Petroleos de Venezuela, S.A.; (2) renew the authorization of the Keystone XL pipeline to import oil from Canada; and (3) resume oil and gas leasing on federal land. Additionally, the bill authorizes the President to use appropriate authorities to impose civil or criminal penalties as necessary to enforce the prohibition.
Sponsors: Rep. Donalds, Byron [R-FL-19]
Target Audience
Population: Global consumers relying on oil imports
Estimated Size: 50000000
- The bill directly impacts the global oil market, as Venezuela is a large oil producer and oil export changes can influence global supply and prices.
- Countries that import Venezuelan oil will need to seek alternative sources, affecting their citizens through potential changes in oil prices.
- Venezuelan economy could be negatively impacted due to loss of income from oil exports, which in turn affects the Venezuelan population relying on this sector.
- Countries supportive of Venezuelan exports may be economically incentivized to react, affecting global diplomatic relations.
Reasoning
- The policy predominantly affects people connected to the oil industry, either directly or indirectly, such as employees, local communities of oil production areas, and consumers of petroleum products.
- Consumers in the U.S. may see an impact on oil prices if Venezuelan imports are prohibited, potentially influencing their overall cost of living.
- Individuals working in oil industry-related sectors may experience changes in their employment status due to fluctuations in the market and restructuring within companies.
- Economic opportunities may arise in areas connected to the Keystone XL pipeline and federal land leasing for oil and gas, potentially creating jobs.
- It's crucial to account for those not directly involved in the oil industry, as indirect economic impacts and potential environmental concerns could affect them.
Simulated Interviews
Oil refinery worker (Houston, TX)
Age: 45 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 12/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I am worried about my job security if Venezuelan oil imports stop.
- Our company would need to find alternative sources, which could be expensive.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 4 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 4 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 5 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 7 |
Policy analyst (Washington, D.C.)
Age: 34 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 8/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This policy could redirect U.S. energy strategies, but it may have diplomatic repercussions.
- There is potential for increased reliance on Canadian oil, changing some economic dynamics.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 8 |
Environmental activist (Denver, CO)
Age: 29 | Gender: other
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I'm highly concerned about the environmental impacts if the Keystone XL pipeline is reauthorized.
- This policy seems like a step backward for sustainable energy goals.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 4 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 3 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 3 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 2 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 2 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 3 | 7 |
Retired oil executive (Midland, TX)
Age: 62 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 6/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This policy could hurt U.S.-Venezuela business relations but might bolster domestic oil sectors.
- Economic adjustments will be necessary, especially in Gulf regions.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 9 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 9 |
Logistics coordinator (Chicago, IL)
Age: 40 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 2.0 years
Commonness: 10/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Logistics would get complicated if Venezuelan oil is out of the picture.
- It might create rerouting challenges, affecting costs and timelines.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 8 |
Gas station owner (Seattle, WA)
Age: 53 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 15/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I'm worried about higher gas prices hurting my business.
- Local customers might decrease if gas prices spike.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 4 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 4 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 7 |
Rideshare driver (Los Angeles, CA)
Age: 27 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 18/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Fuel prices already cut into my income, I'm worried about price hikes.
- I hope this leads to more reliable sources that stabilize prices.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 4 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 7 |
Natural gas company worker (Pittsburgh, PA)
Age: 50 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 14/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The shift might open new opportunities for domestic sourcing jobs like mine.
- I am cautiously optimistic about employment growth.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 8 |
Marine worker (New Orleans, LA)
Age: 38 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 4.0 years
Commonness: 11/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Changes in petro routes could increase work complexity and job risk.
- There might be a learning curve with new procedures, which is stressful.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 7 |
Financial analyst (White Plains, NY)
Age: 46 | Gender: other
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 10/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Expect volatility in the market initially, but possibly stabilization in the long term.
- Clients may need to adjust portfolios to new oil trade dynamics.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 8 |
Cost Estimates
Year 1: $150000000 (Low: $100000000, High: $200000000)
Year 2: $160000000 (Low: $110000000, High: $210000000)
Year 3: $165000000 (Low: $115000000, High: $215000000)
Year 5: $170000000 (Low: $120000000, High: $220000000)
Year 10: $180000000 (Low: $130000000, High: $230000000)
Year 100: $190000000 (Low: $140000000, High: $240000000)
Key Considerations
- Energy price volatility could affect both consumer costs and government budgets.
- The environmental impact of increased domestic energy production, particularly if it involves unconventional oil extraction methods, needs to be considered.
- Diplomatic and trade relations may be strained, especially with countries that continue to engage with Venezuela.