Bill Overview
Title: Permanent Non-Trade Relations for Russia Act
Description: This bill prohibits the President from providing normal trade relations treatment to any article imported from Russia. Additionally, the bill directs the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) to submit a report to Congress that describes the manner in which the USTR plans to (1) obtain support of World Trade Organization (WTO) members to call for the removal of Russia from the WTO, and (2) increase international support among WTO members to remove normal trade relations status for Russia.
Sponsors: Rep. Perry, Scott [R-PA-10]
Target Audience
Population: People involved in global trade with Russia or impacted by changes in trade policies
Estimated Size: 2000000
- The prohibition of normal trade relations with Russia would affect global trade flows, especially for countries heavily trading with Russia.
- Russian exporters and industries who rely on trade with the United States and other WTO member countries would see a direct impact.
- Global markets may also be affected due to changes in supply chains and the availability of Russian goods.
- Countries part of the WTO who trade with Russia may also be impacted indirectly if the dynamics of trade relations with Russia change.
Reasoning
- The policy will directly affect industries that rely on imports from Russia, such as energy, agriculture, and certain technology sectors. Businesses might face cost increases to source replacements, impacting their profitability and workforce.
- The U.S. consumer market may see price shifts due to changes in the availability of goods previously imported from Russia, potentially affecting consumer wellbeing.
- Reciprocal trade actions by Russia could impact U.S. export industries, potentially reducing market size and affecting U.S. workers' incomes.
- These impacts will be concentrated in sectors heavily reliant on Russian imports or exports, but ripple effects may reach broader sectors if market conditions change.
Simulated Interviews
Energy Sector Analyst (Houston, Texas)
Age: 45 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 8/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This policy could significantly disrupt our supply chains, forcing us to find new suppliers, which may increase costs.
- In the short term, we might see project delays and increased operational costs, impacting our budget and potentially our workforce.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 7 |
Agricultural Exporter (New York, New York)
Age: 34 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 6/20
Statement of Opinion:
- If Russia retaliates, it could mean losing a significant market share, which might force us to find new buyers at potentially lower prices.
- This could have significant impacts on our revenue and affect the job security of our employees.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 8 |
Import Manager for Consumer Electronics (Miami, Florida)
Age: 29 | Gender: other
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 2.0 years
Commonness: 7/20
Statement of Opinion:
- We might have to shift to alternative suppliers, potentially increasing costs, which may lead to raising prices for consumers.
- I'm worried about the impact on product availability and our profitability in the short term.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 7 |
Automobile Manufacturer Executive (Detroit, Michigan)
Age: 55 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 4.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Sourcing metals from other countries might increase costs and affect our competitiveness.
- The short-term disruptions could be challenging for our production schedules and market positioning.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 4 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 8 |
Tech Industry Consultant (Boston, Massachusetts)
Age: 41 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 2.0 years
Commonness: 12/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This policy's impact on tech is moderate; we will adapt, though it will require adjustments in our sourcing strategies.
- Possible cost increases could trickle down to consumer prices, but innovation in the sector should help mitigate long-term impacts.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 9 |
Retail Business Owner (San Francisco, California)
Age: 26 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 1.5 years
Commonness: 15/20
Statement of Opinion:
- It's uncertain how much our costs will rise, but we need to be prepared to adjust pricing and sourcing strategies.
- Short-term supply issues might affect our inventory levels, but we hope to mitigate this quickly.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 8 |
Supply Chain Manager (Seattle, Washington)
Age: 57 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 1.0 years
Commonness: 10/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Our diversified supply chains should buffer us, although specific Russian goods will need alternative sources.
- Transitioning will need logistical adjustments but is manageable with advanced planning.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 9 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 9 |
Policy Analyst (Chicago, Illinois)
Age: 63 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This policy marks a significant pivot in trade strategy, but its long-term geopolitical rationale is understandable.
- Short-term economic disruptions are likely, but they must be balanced against the strategic goals.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 9 |
Fishing Industry Worker (Anchorage, Alaska)
Age: 48 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 7/20
Statement of Opinion:
- It's critical to understand how this policy impacts tariffs and counter-tariffs as it affects our export potential.
- We need strategic planning to reduce any negative impacts on local fishermen and their families.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 8 |
Consumer Advocate (Phoenix, Arizona)
Age: 36 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 1.5 years
Commonness: 11/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Consumers will likely notice minimal immediate impact, but prices could rise in specific categories.
- Our role is to ensure consumers are informed about potential shifts and help them adapt efficiently.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 8 |
Cost Estimates
Year 1: $120000000 (Low: $80000000, High: $150000000)
Year 2: $100000000 (Low: $70000000, High: $120000000)
Year 3: $90000000 (Low: $60000000, High: $110000000)
Year 5: $80000000 (Low: $50000000, High: $100000000)
Year 10: $70000000 (Low: $40000000, High: $90000000)
Year 100: $60000000 (Low: $30000000, High: $80000000)
Key Considerations
- International relations and potential retaliatory actions by Russia or other countries.
- Impact on global markets and trading systems.
- Domestic industry adaptations and job market shifts.