Bill Overview
Title: Poland Over Russia Act
Description: This bill requires the United States to withhold all contributions to the United Nations until Russia's membership on the U.N. Security Council is terminated and Poland is made a permanent member of the council. The President must order U.S. representatives to the United Nations to advocate for other member states to take similar actions.
Sponsors: Rep. Perry, Scott [R-PA-10]
Target Audience
Population: Individuals worldwide relying on the United Nations for international peace and security
Estimated Size: 331930000
- The decision impacts global governance and international relations, specifically the structure of the U.N. Security Council.
- Currently, Russia is one of the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council, having veto power.
- Poland is not currently a permanent member of the U.N. Security Council.
- Changes to the Security Council could impact decisions on international security, peacekeeping, and conflict resolution.
- Around 7.8 billion people globally rely on the UN's role in maintaining international peace and security.
Reasoning
- This policy primarily impacts U.S. foreign policy and its stance in international relations. It could significantly affect the political environment by changing the dynamics of the U.N. Security Council.
- Although the policy does not have a direct financial impact on individual Americans, its geopolitical ramifications could indirectly influence the economy, security, and overall wellbeing.
- A wide range of U.S. citizens may feel differently about such international policies depending on their political orientation, awareness of global issues, and perceived importance of United Nations operations.
- Americans who are more aware of international relations may have opinions based on global stability or gridlock at the U.N., while others may not perceive any immediate effect.
- Considering the cost of withholding U.N. contributions and the potential diplomatic consequences, it might affect international aid, peacekeeping operations, and global reputation.
Simulated Interviews
financial analyst (New York, NY)
Age: 45 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I think this policy might destabilize international markets. Removing a major power from the U.N. may lead to geopolitical tensions.
- My work revolves around a stable global market, and any disruption could harm economic conditions.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 5 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 5 | 6 |
teacher (Los Angeles, CA)
Age: 30 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 8/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The U.N. plays a critical role in global peace; this policy could undermine its effectiveness.
- Teaching students about international cooperation might become more challenging.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 5 | 6 |
oil industry executive (Houston, TX)
Age: 50 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- A stronger stance at the U.N. could secure better policies for U.S. in the energy sector.
- Removing Russia from a position of influence might help in securing more favorable international agreements.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 7 |
auto industry worker (Detroit, MI)
Age: 28 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 0.0 years
Commonness: 15/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I don’t see how this affects me directly, but if it impacts my job, then I would be concerned.
- Global moves don’t usually influence our jobs unless it involves trade tariffs or sanctions directly.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 5 | 5 |
non-profit manager (Chicago, IL)
Age: 37 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Withholding funds from the U.N. could cripple many essential programs globally.
- This could reverse progress in areas critical to our work, like child health and education.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 4 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 4 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 4 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 4 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 3 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 3 | 5 |
tech startup founder (Seattle, WA)
Age: 24 | Gender: other
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 6/20
Statement of Opinion:
- International collaboration is important in tech; anything that stirs political tension isn’t good.
- Having Poland on board is fine, but destabilizing the current balance is risky.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 5 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 5 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 5 | 6 |
retired military officer (Miami, FL)
Age: 63 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Removing Russia from the Security Council could be beneficial as it curbs their disruptive influence.
- Poland is a strategic ally, so this could strengthen U.S. positions in Europe.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 7 |
college student (Boston, MA)
Age: 19 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 10/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I think it’s important for the U.S. to play a strong role in international governance, but this might be too antagonistic.
- The repercussions could be significant on international cooperation.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 5 | 6 |
construction company owner (Phoenix, AZ)
Age: 54 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 0.0 years
Commonness: 20/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This policy doesn’t directly impact my business or day-to-day life.
- I am more interested in local policy changes affecting taxes and infrastructure.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 7 |
journalist (Denver, CO)
Age: 41 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 7/20
Statement of Opinion:
- As a journalist, I find this shift a significant step in U.N. history but worry about the long-term diplomatic consequences.
- Public discourse will need to focus on restoring balance and promoting peace effectively.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 5 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 5 | 6 |
Cost Estimates
Year 1: $11000000000 (Low: $10000000000, High: $12000000000)
Year 2: $11000000000 (Low: $10000000000, High: $12000000000)
Year 3: $11000000000 (Low: $10000000000, High: $12000000000)
Year 5: $11000000000 (Low: $10000000000, High: $12000000000)
Year 10: $11000000000 (Low: $10000000000, High: $12000000000)
Year 100: $11000000000 (Low: $10000000000, High: $12000000000)
Key Considerations
- Suspending U.S. contributions to the U.N. can affect global humanitarian aid and peacekeeping efforts led by the U.N.
- The act signals a significant shift in U.S. diplomacy and multilateral participation, which may have broader geopolitical repercussions.
- Long-term stability implications for global peace and security as the structure of the Security Council is challenged.
- Potential backlash from other U.N. member states who may view this as an overreach into U.N. processes.