Bill Overview
Title: To terminate certain waivers of sanctions with respect to Iran issued in connection with the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, and for other purposes.
Description: This bill revokes certain waivers of sanctions relating to Iran's nuclear activity, including for (1) the modernization or redesign of the Arak reactor, and (2) the preparation or modification of centrifuge cascades at the Fordow facility. The bill also prohibits the President from issuing a new waiver relating to such activities.
Sponsors: Rep. Issa, Darrell E. [R-CA-50]
Target Audience
Population: Individuals in Iran and connected global communities affected by nuclear sanction policy changes
Estimated Size: 1500000
- The sanctions impact Iran’s nuclear capabilities, directly affecting Iranian citizens dependent on energy or employment from nuclear activities.
- The removal of waivers might adversely affect diplomatic relations, having broader geopolitical impacts.
- Countries engaged in nuclear-related contracts with Iran, such as China and Russia, may also be impacted due to geopolitical and trade shifts.
- The Iranian economy could suffer due to reduced investment and increased isolation, indirectly impacting millions of people dependent on economic stability for their wellbeing.
Reasoning
- The population impacted by this policy is relatively niche, focusing primarily on individuals connected through diplomatic, economic, or diaspora ties related to Iran. This limits the commonness of individuals experiencing a direct impact.
- Given the budget constraints, the policy doesn't directly allocate resources to US citizens. However, indirect impacts could be felt through geopolitical influence or economic parameters such as oil prices.
- Most Americans are unlikely to experience a significant change in wellbeing due to this policy. Those who might be are involved in foreign policy jobs or have direct connections to Iran.
Simulated Interviews
Foreign Policy Analyst (Washington D.C.)
Age: 35 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I'm concerned about the potential escalation in tensions which might affect my work.
- This policy could lead to a shift in US's diplomatic stance, impacting my career.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 7 |
Oil and Gas Industry Executive (New York)
Age: 40 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Sanctions could potentially drive up oil prices, which affects our bottom line.
- While there might be short-term gains, the volatility isn't great for long-term planning.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 7 |
University Professor (California)
Age: 55 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 20.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- These sanctions might make life more difficult for my relatives back in Iran.
- I worry about the broader cultural and educational exchanges that could be affected.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 6 |
International Business Development Specialist (Texas)
Age: 29 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 7/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This policy could complicate market entry strategies for American businesses.
- There's potential impact on trade prospects and business deals.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 7 |
Environmental Scientist (Illinois)
Age: 42 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 0.0 years
Commonness: 10/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I'm more focused on environmental impacts, but this could tighten international relations affecting climate policy.
- The shift in geopolitical focus might redirect resources away from climate efforts.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 6 |
Retired Military Officer (Virginia)
Age: 50 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- These types of policies often rekindle my interests but also concern me about regional stability.
- Potential conflict escalation impacts my consultancy work negatively.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 7 |
Tech Entrepreneur (San Francisco)
Age: 31 | Gender: other
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 0.0 years
Commonness: 8/20
Statement of Opinion:
- While I focus on tech, global tensions can shape the market landscape unpredictably.
- I don't think this will impact us directly but it may shape economic environments.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 8 |
Graduate Student (New Jersey)
Age: 28 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The tightening of sanctions affects Iranian stability, my family has ties back home.
- Being in the diaspora, I'm tuned to how this shapes US-Iran relations.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 6 |
Customs Broker (Florida)
Age: 44 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 6/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Tighter sanctions may complicate logistics and increase costs for clients.
- Supply chain impacts are a concern with geopolitical shifts.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 7 |
Energy Consultant (Seattle)
Age: 39 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Sanctions lead to volatile markets which require adjustments in our investment strategies.
- Could mean more business in advisory services but also increased risk.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 7 |
Cost Estimates
Year 1: $50000000 (Low: $20000000, High: $80000000)
Year 2: $50000000 (Low: $20000000, High: $80000000)
Year 3: $50000000 (Low: $20000000, High: $80000000)
Year 5: $50000000 (Low: $20000000, High: $80000000)
Year 10: $50000000 (Low: $20000000, High: $80000000)
Year 100: $50000000 (Low: $20000000, High: $80000000)
Key Considerations
- Potential backlash from allied countries currently engaging in cooperation projects under the waivers.
- International diplomatic and trade relations may be significantly impacted.