Bill Overview
Title: Removing Arms from Terrorists Through Sanctions Act
Description: This bill provides statutory authority for a September 21, 2020, executive order imposing sanctions pertaining to Iran's activities relating to arms and related materiel, including transfers of such arms and materiel.
Sponsors: Rep. Pfluger, August [R-TX-11]
Target Audience
Population: People in Iran, especially those in sectors related to arms and the economy
Estimated Size: 1000000
- Iran has a significant population, and sanctions can have wide-reaching effects on individuals, including economic impacts.
- The bill focuses on Iran's armament activities, suggesting potential impacts on the Iranian defense sector workforce.
- Sanctions can lead to shortages and economic difficulties affecting everyday Iranians.
Reasoning
- The policy predominantly impacts people involved in trade or business with Iran, thus directly affecting those in industries related to Iranian goods.
- The policy is likely to be noticed more by members of the Iranian-American community, who may be concerned about their families or business relationships.
- General American citizens not involved in such activities will likely remain unaffected by this policy.
- Given the policy's budget limits, its activities will likely focus on sectors most directly tied to arms or economic activities with Iran, limiting broader transformative impacts.
Simulated Interviews
Defense contractor (California)
Age: 45 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 10/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I do agree that limiting arms to potentially harmful entities is necessary.
- More sanctions could mean stricter rules and more audits for our line of work.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 6 |
Iranian-American businessman (New York)
Age: 52 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 20.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- These sanctions could make it harder for me to maintain my business.
- I'm worried about how this might affect my family in Iran.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 4 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 4 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 4 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 5 | 5 |
IT consultant for international trade firms (Texas)
Age: 39 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 8/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Not sure how this will directly impact my work, but sanctions aren't great for business.
- I expect more compliance work ahead due to sanctions.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 7 |
Human Rights Advocate (Florida)
Age: 29 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 6/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I'm skeptical about sanctions—they often hurt ordinary people more than anyone else.
- I hope there's a coordinated effort to provide relief to those adversely affected.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 8 |
Retired (Illinois)
Age: 61 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 20.0 years
Commonness: 15/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I think such policies might be necessary, but I'm worried about how they might impact regular folks.
- The Iranian students I know here are anxious about their families.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 7 |
Teacher (Washington)
Age: 34 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 0.0 years
Commonness: 18/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I have students whose families are affected by political decisions.
- While it doesn't directly impact me, it's disheartening to see how worried they are.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 7 |
Freelance journalist (Oregon)
Age: 27 | Gender: other
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Sanctions mean more stories to cover, but often they're heartbreaking.
- I'm concerned about how effectively these measures actually work.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 6 |
Automobile parts supplier (Michigan)
Age: 40 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 12/20
Statement of Opinion:
- These sanctions could reduce my market size.
- Hopeful that alternative markets will make up for any other losses.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 7 |
University Student (Georgia)
Age: 23 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 0.0 years
Commonness: 20/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I find studying these sanctions fascinating, though I worry about their humanitarian impact.
- My family isn't directly affected, so it's mainly academic interest for me.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 8 |
Small business owner (Ohio)
Age: 55 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 14/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Directly, it doesn't change much for my business.
- I do care about my employees, and I'd like to see clearer political intentions.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 6 |
Cost Estimates
Year 1: $20000000 (Low: $15000000, High: $30000000)
Year 2: $20000000 (Low: $15000000, High: $30000000)
Year 3: $20000000 (Low: $15000000, High: $30000000)
Year 5: $22000000 (Low: $17000000, High: $32000000)
Year 10: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)
Year 100: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)
Key Considerations
- Monitoring and enforcement mechanisms are critical to ensure compliance with the sanctions, which can affect the cost-effectiveness of the policy.
- Long-term savings could be realized if the sanctions effectively reduce military confrontations or destabilization in the Middle East.