Bill Overview
Title: To prohibit the importation of crude oil from Iran.
Description: This bill prohibits the importation of crude oil from Iran.
Sponsors: Rep. Issa, Darrell E. [R-CA-50]
Target Audience
Population: Global community impacted by changes in oil prices
Estimated Size: 330000000
- The global oil market is interconnected, meaning any change in oil trade can impact global prices.
- Iran is a significant producer of crude oil, and restrictions on its exports could affect supply and demand dynamics.
- Countries trading directly with Iran for crude oil will need to find alternative suppliers.
- A decrease in Iranian oil exports may lead to higher global oil prices, influencing both oil importing and exporting countries.
- Higher oil prices can increase transportation and production costs, impacting consumers and businesses worldwide.
Reasoning
- The policy aims to restrict the importation of crude oil from Iran, which primarily affects global oil supply dynamics rather than direct U.S. oil imports.
- In the U.S., consumers might see changes in gasoline prices as global oil prices are impacted.
- Various sectors, like transportation and manufacturing, may experience shifts in cost due to changes in oil prices, indirectly affecting U.S. businesses and consumers.
- U.S. businesses in related industries could see different benefits or drawbacks depending on their position in the market.
- There is a need to include a variety of individuals representing different sectors of the U.S. economy to understand the policy's broad impact.
Simulated Interviews
Oil refinery technician (Houston, TX)
Age: 34 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 10/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I think the policy could lead to changes in operational focus.
- Global oil price changes might affect our refineries.
- My job feels secure but I am watching the industry trends.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 5 | 6 |
Ride-share driver (Los Angeles, CA)
Age: 29 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 15/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Gas prices already eat into my income.
- If gas prices rise more, I'll have to work longer hours.
- I hope any price changes are temporary.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 4 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 4 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 4 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 5 | 5 |
Financial analyst (New York, NY)
Age: 45 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This policy might create market volatility.
- Investors will need to adapt portfolios accordingly.
- The U.S. might see strategic gains in energy independence.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 7 |
Automotive factory worker (Detroit, MI)
Age: 39 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 12/20
Statement of Opinion:
- If oil prices go up, car sales might drop.
- This could affect my job security.
- I hope the union negotiates better conditions if things get tough.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 6 |
Airline pilot (Miami, FL)
Age: 52 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 4.0 years
Commonness: 8/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Rising fuel costs could affect flight operations.
- My job is secure, but the industry may face pressures.
- I expect tickets might get more expensive.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 6 |
Restaurant manager (Phoenix, AZ)
Age: 26 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 10/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Higher oil prices could raise food delivery costs.
- We'll need to watch expenses closely.
- This might lead to menu adjustments or price changes.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 6 |
Retired (Dallas, TX)
Age: 60 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 2.0 years
Commonness: 14/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Rising gas prices could affect my travel budget.
- I might need to cut back on leisure activities.
- Hopefully, the policy change won't impact too much long-term.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 4 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 4 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 5 | 5 |
Public transit employee (Philadelphia, PA)
Age: 50 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 4.0 years
Commonness: 10/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Transit costs might increase if fuel gets pricier.
- I am concerned about potential fare hikes.
- Stable oil prices help keep our city's budget in line.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 6 |
College student (Chicago, IL)
Age: 22 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 2.0 years
Commonness: 18/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I'm curious how this policy affects global oil practices.
- Changes in oil prices could impact city transport budgets.
- It might not impact me directly but could influence my studies.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 7 |
Environmental policy consultant (Seattle, WA)
Age: 38 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 6/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The policy could bolster arguments for renewable energy.
- Global oil trade shifts might advance energy independence.
- I'm optimistic about the push for greener solutions.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 8 |
Cost Estimates
Year 1: $25000000 (Low: $15000000, High: $35000000)
Year 2: $25000000 (Low: $15000000, High: $35000000)
Year 3: $25000000 (Low: $15000000, High: $35000000)
Year 5: $25000000 (Low: $15000000, High: $35000000)
Year 10: $25000000 (Low: $15000000, High: $35000000)
Year 100: $25000000 (Low: $15000000, High: $35000000)
Key Considerations
- Existing U.S. sanctions on Iran already limit the importation of crude oil, thus direct effects are minimal.
- The policy may necessitate resources for legal and administrative oversight to ensure compliance.
- Some indirect economic impacts may arise due to changes in global oil supply and prices, potentially affecting consumer and business costs in the U.S.