Bill Overview
Title: Stop China’s Financing of Russia’s Invasion Act
Description: This bill requires additional tariffs on certain Chinese goods if China increases its importation of wheat and barley from Russia. Specifically, the bill requires the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) to certify to the President whether China has increased the volume of wheat and barley imported from Russia relative to the volume imported on February 1, 2022. Upon an affirmative confirmation and until certain requirements are met, the President must impose an additional tariff of 20% on Chinese products that are classified under section I, II, or III of the Harmonized Tariff Schedule (which includes, among others, animal and vegetable products). Additionally, the bill directs the USTR to take certain actions, including to consider steps to suspend Russia's participation in the World Trade Organization.
Sponsors: Rep. Budd, Ted [R-NC-13]
Target Audience
Population: People impacted by US-China trade and the global implications of the new tariffs
Estimated Size: 300000000
- The bill directly involves the United States and China, targeting trade relations between the two.
- Tariffs on Chinese goods will predominantly affect American importers and consumers of those goods.
- The agricultural sector, especially related to wheat and barley, is directly implicated regarding trade between China and Russia.
- Global economic patterns and supply chains could be disrupted, impacting consumers and businesses worldwide.
- The actions to suspend Russia from the WTO could impact global trade and economic relations.
Reasoning
- The estimated $50,000,000 USD budget in year 1 is limited considering the vast population potentially affected by changes in trade and tariffs, implying that direct support or compensation measures are minimal.
- The policy would likely affect the import sector and consumers more than direct producers, since it's reliant on Chinese imports facing tariffs.
- Consideration is given to multiple socioeconomic classes, regions, and employment sectors in the U.S. to cover a broad range of experiences and perceptions.
Simulated Interviews
CEO of an import/export company (Los Angeles, CA)
Age: 45 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 2/20
Statement of Opinion:
- As a CEO, I'm deeply concerned about increased tariffs raising costs for my business.
- Most of our consumer base is price sensitive so a 20% tariff could lead to significant sales drops.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 4 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 4 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 5 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 9 |
Farmer (Houston, TX)
Age: 34 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The tariffs might increase wheat prices globally, which could be beneficial for local farmers.
- I'm also worried about potential geopolitical tensions affecting agricultural exports.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 6 |
Freelance designer (New York, NY)
Age: 29 | Gender: other
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 2.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Increased tariffs might mean higher prices for the tech gadgets I need.
- I'm worried about this policy influencing my business overhead costs.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 9 |
Economics professor (Chicago, IL)
Age: 60 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 9
Duration of Impact: 0.0 years
Commonness: 1/20
Statement of Opinion:
- As an academic, this policy offers a rich case study for global trade impacts.
- There's a risk of China retaliating, which could have broader economic implications.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 2 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 3 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 9 |
Retail worker (Miami, FL)
Age: 24 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 7/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Prices for goods in our store might go up, affecting my customers.
- A slowdown in sales might impact my working hours and income.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 4 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 4 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 5 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 7 |
Tech startup founder (Seattle, WA)
Age: 40 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 2/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This could inflate our production costs significantly.
- Sourcing locally or from other countries might become necessary but expensive.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 4 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 4 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 4 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 5 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 9 |
Supply chain analyst (Portland, OR)
Age: 50 | Gender: other
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 1.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This policy might push companies to reconsider their supply chains.
- Long term effects can include realignment of trade alliances.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 9 |
Supermarket manager (Atlanta, GA)
Age: 37 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Higher tariffs on Chinese products could shift customer buying habits.
- Our profit margins might reduce as we see where to absorb cost increases.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 9 |
Retail clothing store owner (Columbus, OH)
Age: 55 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 4.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I have concerns about passing costs to customers and impacting sales.
- Exploring alternative suppliers but it's challenging and expensive.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 4 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 5 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 8 |
Logistics coordinator (San Francisco, CA)
Age: 32 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 2.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Potential delays and increased shipping costs are a concern.
- Looking for more efficient routing and possibly alternative ports.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 9 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 9 |
Cost Estimates
Year 1: $50000000 (Low: $40000000, High: $60000000)
Year 2: $50000000 (Low: $40000000, High: $60000000)
Year 3: $50000000 (Low: $40000000, High: $60000000)
Year 5: $50000000 (Low: $40000000, High: $60000000)
Year 10: $50000000 (Low: $40000000, High: $60000000)
Year 100: $50000000 (Low: $40000000, High: $60000000)
Key Considerations
- Relations with China may be strained, affecting broader diplomatic and economic engagements.
- Potential impacts on American consumers due to increased prices of goods subjected to tariffs.
- WTO proceedings could have broader implications for international trade norms involving the U.S.
- Potential for China to impose retaliatory tariffs on U.S. exports, impacting domestic industries.