Bill Overview
Title: Suspending Normal Trade Relations with Russia and Belarus Act
Description: This bill suspends normal trade relations with Russia and Belarus. It also permanently authorizes the President to impose visa- and property-blocking sanctions based on violations of human rights. Specifically, the bill authorizes the President to proclaim increases in the rates of duty applicable to products of Russia or Belarus. This authority terminates on January 1, 2024. The President may restore normal trade relations with Russia and Belarus, subject to congressional disapproval. The bill directs the U.S. Trade Representative to (1) condemn the recent aggression in Ukraine, (2) encourage other World Trade Organization (WTO) members to suspend trade concessions to Russia and Belarus, (3) consider steps to suspend Russia's participation in the WTO, and (4) seek to halt the accession process of Belarus.
Sponsors: Rep. Neal, Richard E. [D-MA-1]
Target Audience
Population: People involved in international trade with Russia and Belarus
Estimated Size: 20000000
- The suspension of normal trade relations with Russia and Belarus will impact businesses globally that import or export goods to and from these countries.
- The broader sanctions for human rights violations will affect individuals and corporations worldwide who are currently involved in human rights abuses or corruption.
- The bill can lead to increased costs for consumers who purchase Russian or Belarusian products due to potential increased tariffs.
- There could be economic shifts in countries closely trading with Russia and Belarus due to altered trade flows.
- Entities involved in international trade compliance will need to adapt to new regulations.
Reasoning
- The policy affects primarily businesses and sectors dependent on Russian or Belarusian trade, such as energy, commodities, and legal compliance sectors.
- Consumers who rely on goods from these countries may experience price changes.
- Legal and trade compliance professionals will likely see increased job opportunities due to the need for new compliance protocols.
- Not everyone in the U.S. will be impacted; those not involved in importing from, exporting to, or using products from these nations might see no change.
- Understanding variations in impact helps distribute the limited policy budget to the most affected sectors.
Simulated Interviews
Energy Trader (New York, NY)
Age: 45 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 2.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This policy could increase costs due to higher tariffs on Russian energy products, impacting profitability.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 8 |
Corporate Lawyer (Los Angeles, CA)
Age: 30 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 4.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The policy increases demand for legal compliance work, but adds pressure to stay updated with constant regulatory changes.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 9 |
Oil Industry Executive (Houston, TX)
Age: 54 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 2.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This policy disrupts supply chains and increases costs, impacting the bottom line of U.S. companies reliant on Russian oil.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 8 |
Retail Manager (Chicago, IL)
Age: 41 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 6/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Tariff increases mean higher prices on Belarusian goods, which could lower sales and consumer satisfaction.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 8 |
Tech Entrepreneur (Miami, FL)
Age: 29 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- We need to find alternative suppliers quickly, which delays projects and increases costs.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 9 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 9 |
Tech Industry Analyst (Seattle, WA)
Age: 34 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 1.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This policy highlights the importance of diversification and understanding geopolitical risks, crucial for the tech sector.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 9 |
Supply Chain Manager (Boston, MA)
Age: 39 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Supply chains are already strained, and this policy adds complexity, especially with Russian and Belarusian routes.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 8 |
Import/Export Specialist (San Francisco, CA)
Age: 28 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 6/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Potential sanctions mean reworking current deals, which is stressful but manageable with careful planning.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 8 |
Commodity Broker (Dallas, TX)
Age: 50 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 1.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The policy increases market volatility, which can be both a risk and an opportunity if navigated correctly.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 9 |
Manufacturing Business Owner (Detroit, MI)
Age: 48 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 4.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Increased tariffs could drive up costs, requiring price adjustments and supplier diversification.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 9 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 9 |
Cost Estimates
Year 1: $15000000 (Low: $10000000, High: $20000000)
Year 2: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)
Year 3: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)
Year 5: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)
Year 10: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)
Year 100: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)
Key Considerations
- Potential retaliatory measures by Russia and Belarus could affect U.S. exports and economic interests.
- Stronger enforcement of sanctions on human rights violations might lead to geopolitical tensions.
- The effectiveness of the sanctions and trade restrictions in achieving desired human rights outcomes.