Bill Overview
Title: Stop Profiting Off Putin’s War Act
Description: This bill imposes a 50% excise tax through 2023 on the adjusted taxable income of certain major integrated oil companies during calendar quarters when the national average price of unleaded gasoline is equal to or greater than the national average price of unleaded gasoline on February 24, 2022, the day of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The rate of such tax is increased to 75% for companies that raise prices in response to this new tax. The bill requires tax revenues to be paid as rebates to eligible individuals and establishes the Gas Profit Recovery Fund to finance the payment of such rebates.
Sponsors: Rep. Maloney, Sean Patrick [D-NY-18]
Target Audience
Population: People impacted by fuel prices and eligible for rebates in the U.S.
Estimated Size: 80000000
- The bill targets major integrated oil companies that operate domestically within the United States.
- The population that will benefit from the bill are eligible individuals who receive rebates funded by the excise tax revenue.
- This includes people across socioeconomic backgrounds who purchase gasoline, as it relates to efforts to combat increased gas prices.
Reasoning
- The simulation considers a diverse set of individuals who are representative of different demographics across the U.S. The aim is to reflect varying levels of impact from the policy based on socioeconomic status, location, and travel needs.
- The budget limits suggest rebates will be modest but relevant to people dealing with high gas prices, therefore targeting individuals most affected by gasoline costs.
- Our simulated individuals include those with different dependencies on gasoline, ranging from low income families with high transportation needs to wealthier individuals for whom fuel costs are a smaller fraction of expenses.
- Given the wide range of income levels and living situations, the rebate is expected to provide a meaningful increase in well-being for low to middle-income families, while wealthier individuals see little change.
Simulated Interviews
Truck Driver (Houston, TX)
Age: 45 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 1.0 years
Commonness: 8/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The rebates will definitely help cover some of my commuting costs, but I hope the prices don't keep rising.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 4 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 4 |
| Year 5 | 5 | 4 |
| Year 10 | 5 | 3 |
| Year 20 | 4 | 3 |
Accountant (Los Angeles, CA)
Age: 34 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 0.5 years
Commonness: 10/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I could use the rebate for other daily expenses, it would definitely help.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 5 | 5 |
Retired (Detroit, MI)
Age: 60 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 0.3 years
Commonness: 12/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I'm on a fixed income, so any extra cash is helpful, but I'm not as affected by gas prices.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 6 |
Student (New York, NY)
Age: 26 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 0.0 years
Commonness: 9/20
Statement of Opinion:
- It doesn't impact me much directly, but I support anything that curbs price hikes.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 5 | 5 |
Small Business Owner (Seattle, WA)
Age: 50 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 2.0 years
Commonness: 7/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Reducing our gas expenses means we can invest more into the business.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 5 | 5 |
Software Engineer (Chicago, IL)
Age: 39 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 0.5 years
Commonness: 14/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The rebate won't make much difference for me, I'm more concerned with broader economic impacts.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 7 |
Nurse (Phoenix, AZ)
Age: 55 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 1.0 years
Commonness: 10/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Any financial relief helps. Gas is a major expense for me.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 4 | 4 |
Freelancer (Miami, FL)
Age: 31 | Gender: other
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 1.0 years
Commonness: 11/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The rebate gives me some breathing room when costs go up.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 5 | 5 |
Teacher (Raleigh, NC)
Age: 29 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 1.0 years
Commonness: 9/20
Statement of Opinion:
- If gas prices stabilize, it will be easier to plan financially.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 5 | 5 |
Retired (Denver, CO)
Age: 65 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 1.5 years
Commonness: 8/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Gas price control means less stress for my fixed budget.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 5 | 5 |
Cost Estimates
Year 1: $15000000000 (Low: $12000000000, High: $18000000000)
Year 2: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)
Year 3: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)
Year 5: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)
Year 10: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)
Year 100: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)
Key Considerations
- The volatility of oil prices introduces uncertainty into the tax revenue and rebate estimates.
- The response of major integrated oil companies to the excise tax will be critical in defining overall tax revenue.
- Rebates are dependent on accurate eligibility criteria and efficient distribution mechanisms.
- The short-term nature of the excise tax limits long-term fiscal planning effects.