Bill Overview
Title: American Energy for American Consumers Act
Description: This bill requires the President to promulgate a rule prohibiting the export of crude oil and finished motor gasoline produced in the United States. The prohibition may not end until the earlier of (1) the date that the President determines the national average price for unleaded gasoline has been, for at least 30 days, at or below the national average price for unleaded gasoline on January 1, 2022; or (2) the date that the President determines is the formal end to the conflict between Russian and Ukraine. The President may exempt from the prohibition exports of crude oil or finished motor gasoline as the President determines to be in the national interest or for national security purposes.
Sponsors: Rep. Maloney, Sean Patrick [D-NY-18]
Target Audience
Population: global population affected by the crude oil and finished motor gasoline market
Estimated Size: 331000000
- The bill impacts the export of crude oil and finished motor gasoline, therefore affecting global oil markets.
- Energy-exporting companies in the U.S. will be directly impacted as they will no longer be able to export crude oil and finished motor gasoline.
- The prohibition is conditional based on the average price of gasoline in the U.S., potentially impacting prices domestically.
- If the bill leads to reduced domestic gasoline prices, American consumers could benefit.
- Further export restrictions could cause geopolitical implications for countries importing crude oil from the U.S.
Reasoning
- This policy could lower gasoline prices domestically due to increased supply availability within the U.S., possibly improving consumer wellbeing for those reliant on gasoline for daily activities.
- On the other hand, those employed in the energy export sector might experience reduced career growth or financial strain due to decreased export revenues, potentially affecting their wellbeing.
- The policy's conditional aspects mean its effects can vary significantly with geopolitical developments and domestic economic trends, influencing the impact on different segments of the population over time.
- As gasoline prices are a significant factor in cost of living, those facing financial instability might notice greater improvement in wellbeing from lower prices.
Simulated Interviews
Oil Company Executive (Houston, TX)
Age: 34 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 2/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This policy is a huge setback for the export industry.
- We might see a direct hit in earnings and job security.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 5 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 8 |
Taxi Driver (Los Angeles, CA)
Age: 45 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 4
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Cheaper gas would help stretch my income a bit further.
- If this works, I might finally save some money.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 4 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 4 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 4 |
| Year 5 | 5 | 4 |
| Year 10 | 4 | 4 |
| Year 20 | 4 | 4 |
Software Developer (Seattle, WA)
Age: 29 | Gender: other
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 0.0 years
Commonness: 15/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I don't think this policy affects me much directly.
- I seldom buy gasoline.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 6 |
Factory Worker (Detroit, MI)
Age: 54 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 2.0 years
Commonness: 10/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Any drop in gas prices is helpful in our community.
- It might improve our cost of living a bit.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 5 | 5 |
Retired Teacher (Omaha, NE)
Age: 60 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 0.0 years
Commonness: 18/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This won't change much for me.
- I'm more worried about long-term healthcare costs than gas prices.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 7 |
Financial Analyst (New York City, NY)
Age: 39 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 1.0 years
Commonness: 9/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Gas prices don't impact my daily life significantly.
- It might affect my decision on car purchases.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 6 |
Small Business Owner (Phoenix, AZ)
Age: 28 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Lower fuel prices will help my business.
- This could allow me to invest more elsewhere.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 5 | 5 |
Nurse (Chicago, IL)
Age: 31 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 2.0 years
Commonness: 12/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Cheaper gas could ease my budget slightly.
- It won't solve the bigger issues like healthcare costs.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 6 |
Truck Driver (Denver, CO)
Age: 40 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I expect significant relief if gas prices drop.
- It might stabilize my earnings slightly.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 5 | 5 |
College Student (Miami, FL)
Age: 23 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 0.0 years
Commonness: 16/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Gas policy changes aren't a big deal for me.
- My expenses are more focused on tuition and rent.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 6 |
Cost Estimates
Year 1: $1200000000 (Low: $1000000000, High: $1400000000)
Year 2: $1150000000 (Low: $950000000, High: $1350000000)
Year 3: $1100000000 (Low: $900000000, High: $1300000000)
Year 5: $1050000000 (Low: $850000000, High: $1250000000)
Year 10: $1000000000 (Low: $800000000, High: $1200000000)
Year 100: $1000000000 (Low: $800000000, High: $1200000000)
Key Considerations
- The bill's impacts depend largely on the global oil market dynamics and the continued conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
- Domestic energy prices and corresponding consumer benefit are not guaranteed and may fluctuate based on broader market conditions.
- Export restrictions could influence foreign relations, especially with countries dependent on U.S. oil.