Policy Impact Analysis - 117/HR/7101

Bill Overview

Title: Prohibiting Anticompetitive Mergers Act of 2022

Description: This bill prohibits certain business mergers, modifies the procedures for reviewing mergers, and establishes procedures for reversing certain mergers. Specifically, the bill prohibits mergers that (1) are valued at more than $5 billion in total assets, (2) result in the acquiring entity having a market share of greater than 33% (or a share of a labor market as an employer of greater than 25%), or (3) result in market concentration levels that exceed specified thresholds. The bill also expands the authority of the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) and the Antitrust Division of the Department of Justice (DOJ) to review pending mergers, including whether a merger is likely to harm the competitive process and the effect of a merger on relevant labor markets. Finally, the bill authorizes the FTC and the Antitrust Division of the DOJ to retroactively unwind mergers that are prohibited under the bill or that meet certain other anticompetitive criteria such as a merger that results in a greater than 50% share of a relevant market.

Sponsors: Rep. Jones, Mondaire [D-NY-17]

Target Audience

Population: People affected by business mergers globally

Estimated Size: 330000000

Reasoning

Simulated Interviews

Software Engineer (San Francisco, CA)

Age: 45 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 10/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I think the policy is good as it will ensure fair competition.
  • I worry a bit about potential job restructuring if a merger is unwound.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 6
Year 2 7 6
Year 3 7 6
Year 5 8 7
Year 10 8 7
Year 20 8 7

Pharmaceutical Sales Manager (Seattle, WA)

Age: 33 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 14/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • The bill could create more stability in our job market, preventing major layoffs.
  • There’s concern over how difficult it will become to merge even when it might be necessary.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 5
Year 2 7 5
Year 3 8 6
Year 5 8 6
Year 10 8 6
Year 20 7 5

Corporate Lawyer (New York, NY)

Age: 55 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 8

Duration of Impact: 3.0 years

Commonness: 7/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I’m concerned about the additional bureaucracy this policy creates.
  • It might make some mergers more challenging to push through legitimately.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 8
Year 2 7 8
Year 3 7 8
Year 5 6 7
Year 10 6 7
Year 20 6 7

Entrepreneur (Austin, TX)

Age: 38 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 12/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • The policy could help small businesses like mine by limiting big mergers.
  • Worried about limited exit strategies due to mergers being tougher.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 5
Year 2 6 5
Year 3 7 6
Year 5 8 6
Year 10 8 6
Year 20 7 6

Economist (Chicago, IL)

Age: 49 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 8

Duration of Impact: 20.0 years

Commonness: 11/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This bill could help mitigate monopolistic pressures in the economy.
  • It needs to be carefully implemented to avoid overregulation.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 8 7
Year 2 8 7
Year 3 8 7
Year 5 9 7
Year 10 9 7
Year 20 9 6

Retired (Boston, MA)

Age: 62 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 8/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Retrospective unwinding of mergers seems risky if not handled properly.
  • The protection it offers to consumers and employees is reassuring.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 5
Year 2 6 5
Year 3 7 6
Year 5 7 6
Year 10 7 6
Year 20 7 6

Consumer (Miami, FL)

Age: 25 | Gender: other

Wellbeing Before Policy: 4

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 15/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This policy might finally bring down prices and improve consumer choice.
  • I worry slightly about indirect economic impacts.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 4
Year 2 6 4
Year 3 7 5
Year 5 7 5
Year 10 6 5
Year 20 6 5

Data Analyst (Denver, CO)

Age: 29 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 7.0 years

Commonness: 13/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • The policy supports job security against market-dominating mergers.
  • There’s a risk that it might deter beneficial merger-led growth.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 5
Year 2 7 5
Year 3 7 6
Year 5 8 6
Year 10 8 6
Year 20 8 6

Small Business Owner (Raleigh, NC)

Age: 40 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 9/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Finally, a policy that curbs the power of large businesses in my industry.
  • I am concerned about how this will affect my suppliers who rely on large companies.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 5
Year 2 8 5
Year 3 8 5
Year 5 9 5
Year 10 9 5
Year 20 8 5

Financial Analyst (Los Angeles, CA)

Age: 50 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 3.0 years

Commonness: 7/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This bill makes advising mergers more complex but necessary for fair competition.
  • There might be initial disruption in the financial markets as people adjust.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 7
Year 2 7 7
Year 3 7 7
Year 5 7 7
Year 10 7 7
Year 20 6 7

Cost Estimates

Year 1: $400000000 (Low: $300000000, High: $500000000)

Year 2: $420000000 (Low: $320000000, High: $520000000)

Year 3: $445000000 (Low: $340000000, High: $550000000)

Year 5: $470000000 (Low: $360000000, High: $580000000)

Year 10: $500000000 (Low: $380000000, High: $600000000)

Year 100: $700000000 (Low: $500000000, High: $900000000)

Key Considerations