Bill Overview
Title: Oligarch Asset Forfeiture Act
Description: This bill authorizes the seizure of assets belonging to certain sanctioned individuals (generally, those individuals subject to various sanctions related to activities of Russia) and for such assets to be sold and used to provide assistance to Ukraine.
Sponsors: Rep. Cohen, Steve [D-TN-9]
Target Audience
Population: Individuals with sanctioned assets related to Russian activities
Estimated Size: 300
- The bill targets individuals who are subject to sanctions, specifically related to Russian activities.
- This generally refers to Russian oligarchs, defined as very wealthy business leaders with significant political influence related to Russia.
- The assets to be seized likely include significant possessions such as real estate, companies, or bank accounts owned by these oligarchs.
- These individuals are globally distributed, but with a high concentration in Russia and countries where they are known to hold assets.
- Families and businesses associated with these individuals might also be indirectly affected.
- The legislation does not target the general population but specifically those on sanction lists for geopolitical impact.
Reasoning
- The policy targets a very specific area of the population, namely Russian oligarchs with assets in the US, which means the direct impact on the wider US population is likely minimal.
- Indirect effects could occur if the policy affects businesses that have dealings with these oligarchs or if it inspires similar legislative moves in other areas.
- Wellbeing could be affected positively or negatively depending on public perception of fairness, economic impacts, or political ramifications.
- The asset forfeiture directly benefits Ukraine as aid, which could also influence public opinion positively or negatively depending on personal views on international aid and geopolitical issues.
- The policy's financial limitation restricts it potentially affecting broader economic sectors.
- Given the policy's focus, most US citizens will not feel directly impacted unless they are economically or socially tied to the sanctioned individuals.
Simulated Interviews
Investment Banker (New York, NY)
Age: 38 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 12/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I think the policy might disrupt some of our international relations, but ethically, it might be the right move.
- This could cause concern among investors we're dealing with, especially those close to sanctioned individuals.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 8 |
Retired Tech Executive (San Francisco, CA)
Age: 65 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 0.0 years
Commonness: 15/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I support actions that hold powerful individuals accountable, so I think this is a step in the right direction.
- I'm concerned about potential backlash from allies and in international markets.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 8 |
Freelance Journalist (Austin, TX)
Age: 27 | Gender: other
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 8/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This policy could be a game-changer in international asset management, but I worry about the precedent it sets.
- It might lead to more stories and content opportunities for my work, so there could be a personal benefit.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 6 |
Small Business Owner (Raleigh, NC)
Age: 45 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 0.0 years
Commonness: 10/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I don't think it will affect me directly, but as a business owner, I always worry about policies that shift market dynamics.
- If it helps bring peace elsewhere, I'm for it.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 7 |
Real Estate Agent (Miami, FL)
Age: 51 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This could complicate some of my deals with international clients, especially those with Russian ties.
- I understand the political necessity, but it could be bad for business short-term.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 8 |
International Trade Specialist (Seattle, WA)
Age: 32 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 9/20
Statement of Opinion:
- It's crucial to abide by these regulatory changes, but the added complexity might deter new business.
- I support measures aiding Ukraine if implemented fairly.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 7 |
Attorney (Chicago, IL)
Age: 44 | Gender: other
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 7/20
Statement of Opinion:
- There's potential for increased legal work due to this policy, but navigating new sanctions could be challenging.
- It's a positive step for international justice.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 6 |
Film Producer (Los Angeles, CA)
Age: 29 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 2.0 years
Commonness: 11/20
Statement of Opinion:
- There's an interesting story potential here for content creation.
- The policy itself seems to be in a positive direction, but I wonder about long-term effects.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 8 |
University Professor (Boston, MA)
Age: 55 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 20.0 years
Commonness: 6/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This policy provides real-world examples for my lectures, increasing interest in my courses.
- It sets an interesting precedent for international law and policy.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 9 |
| Year 3 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 9 |
Lobbyist (Washington, D.C.)
Age: 62 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Such policies can disrupt international business if not managed carefully.
- It's essential but needs careful diplomatic handling.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 7 |
Cost Estimates
Year 1: $200000000 (Low: $150000000, High: $250000000)
Year 2: $200000000 (Low: $150000000, High: $250000000)
Year 3: $200000000 (Low: $150000000, High: $250000000)
Year 5: $200000000 (Low: $150000000, High: $250000000)
Year 10: $200000000 (Low: $150000000, High: $250000000)
Year 100: $200000000 (Low: $150000000, High: $250000000)
Key Considerations
- Legal challenges may arise from the affected oligarchs, potentially increasing costs.
- Global cooperation is crucial for the swift identification and seizure of assets in different jurisdictions.
- Ensuring transparency in asset liquidation and the allocation of proceeds is vital to maintaining international and domestic support.
- Initial setup costs could be higher due to the need for enhanced international cooperation protocols and expanded legal teams.