Bill Overview
Title: Restoring Maximum Pressure on Iranian Terrorists Act
Description: This bill provides statutory authority for provisions of an executive order issued June 24, 2019, that imposed sanctions relating to Iran, including sanctions on the Supreme Leader of Iran.
Sponsors: Rep. Perry, Scott [R-PA-10]
Target Audience
Population: People living in Iran
Estimated Size: 150000
- The bill imposes sanctions on the Supreme Leader of Iran and potentially other significant figures within the Iranian government, which can affect their individual capabilities, such as financial transactions.
- Sanctions typically impact not only the targeted leaders but also have broader implications on the Iranian economy, which can trickle down to affect the general population.
- The Iranian economy may face challenges due to restricted access to international financial systems, affecting industries and potentially leading to shortages of goods or increased prices.
- These economic impacts can influence living standards, employment, and general wellbeing of the civilian population.
- The intent is to pressure the government; however, historically, economic sanctions can lead to unintended hardships for ordinary citizens.
Reasoning
- The policy is primarily aimed at foreign officials and does not directly target the majority of the U.S. population. Hence, its direct impact on Americans will be limited.
- The indirect effects on the U.S. population could stem from increased geopolitical tensions or economic shifts due to changing relations in the Middle East.
- Individuals with personal or familial ties to Iran might experience greater indirect effects due to potential difficulties in communications, financial transactions, and travel.
- The policy's budget constraints limit actions to diplomatic and international financial measures rather than domestic interventions.
- Simulating interviews will help explore various indirect impacts and opinions among Americans such as those in the business industry, academia, and individuals with Iranian heritage.
Simulated Interviews
Professor of International Relations (Los Angeles, CA)
Age: 42 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The policy might create a chilling effect on academic exchanges with Iran, limiting opportunities for research collaboration.
- While intended to put pressure on Iranian leaders, increased tensions might reduce U.S. influence in fostering diplomatic solutions.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 7 |
Oil Industry Analyst (Houston, TX)
Age: 35 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The sanctions could lead to volatility in oil prices, impacting the energy market and my job security indirectly.
- Market instability might result in higher fuel costs and changes in international supply chains.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 5 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 5 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 5 | 7 |
Tech Startup Founder (New York, NY)
Age: 29 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 1/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Constant sanctions cause challenges in maintaining cross-border communications and transactions with my family in Iran.
- The policy increases stress as I worry about my family's economic security.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 4 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 4 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 3 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 3 | 6 |
Retired Military Officer (Chicago, IL)
Age: 60 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The policy may increase military tensions, making U.S. engagement in the Middle East more complicated.
- As a veteran, I'm concerned about how heightened tensions might affect current U.S. troops in the region.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 7 |
Social Activist (San Francisco, CA)
Age: 24 | Gender: other
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Sanctions often hurt the most vulnerable, and this policy might exacerbate hardships for ordinary Iranians.
- It may draw attention away from peaceful and collaborative solutions to international challenges.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 4 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 4 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 4 | 5 |
Political Advisor (Washington, D.C.)
Age: 50 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Sanctions are a tool in the U.S. foreign policy toolkit, but they must be carefully calibrated to avoid unintended consequences.
- This policy may shift diplomatic priorities, impacting U.S. engagements globally.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 8 |
Financial Analyst (Miami, FL)
Age: 45 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 10/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Economic sanctions can influence global markets, potentially impacting investment portfolios.
- Market unpredictability can lead to financial risks but also trading opportunities.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 5 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 5 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 5 | 7 |
Human Rights Lawyer (San Diego, CA)
Age: 30 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 2/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Policies like these can have major human rights implications, potentially complicating the situation for Iranian asylum seekers.
- It might affect legal arguments in asylum cases related to economic hardship and persecution.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 5 | 6 |
Tech Company Manager (Salt Lake City, UT)
Age: 38 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 8/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Sanctions can complicate our business dealings, potentially limiting market reach or increasing costs.
- Policy might necessitate operational adjustments to adapt to new restrictions.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 5 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 5 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 5 | 7 |
Homemaker (Atlanta, GA)
Age: 55 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I worry about how international tensions might affect U.S. military personnel, including my son.
- Policies like this one bring unease regarding global stability.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 7 |
Cost Estimates
Year 1: $5000000 (Low: $3000000, High: $7000000)
Year 2: $5000000 (Low: $3000000, High: $7000000)
Year 3: $5000000 (Low: $3000000, High: $7000000)
Year 5: $5000000 (Low: $3000000, High: $7000000)
Year 10: $5000000 (Low: $3000000, High: $7000000)
Year 100: $5000000 (Low: $3000000, High: $7000000)
Key Considerations
- The impact of sanctions typically extends beyond the directly targeted individuals and can affect the broader economy and civilian population, leading to unintended consequences.
- Historical evidence indicates that while sanctions can pressure governments, they might also strengthen hardliner positions internally.
- Monitoring and enforcement of sanctions can be resource-intensive.
- Sanctions might lead to shifts in trade alliances globally, affecting U.S. and international markets.