Bill Overview
Title: Prohibiting Oil Trade with Venezuela’s Tyrant Act
Description: This bill requires the President to prohibit the importation of petroleum products from Venezuela. Petroleum product means crude oil, residual fuel oil, or any refined petroleum product, including natural gas liquid product. Further, the bill authorizes the President to use appropriate authorities to impose civil or criminal penalties as necessary to enforce the prohibition. The prohibition shall terminate after the Department of State certifies that Venezuela has held free and fair elections and all political prisoners have been released.
Sponsors: Rep. Franklin, C. Scott [R-FL-15]
Target Audience
Population: People affected by the Prohibiting Oil Trade with Venezuela's Tyrant Act
Estimated Size: 200000000
- Venezuela is a major exporter of petroleum products, and the U.S. has historically been a significant importer of these products.
- The prohibition on oil trade would directly impact Venezuelan workers and businesses involved in the petroleum industry as it would reduce their export market.
- Countries relying on Venezuela for oil would seek alternative sources, potentially affecting global oil prices.
- Any fluctuation in global oil supply and demand can indirectly affect consumers and industries in oil-importing nations, including increased gasoline prices and manufacturing costs.
- U.S. refineries that process heavier crude oils similar to Venezuela's may face supply shortages, impacting American jobs and possibly increasing fuel costs.
- The Venezuelan government depends heavily on oil revenues, so a trade prohibition would have significant economic implications for public service funding in Venezuela.
Reasoning
- The policy specifically targets the oil trade, so it will most immediately impact those directly or indirectly dependant on the oil sector.
- Given that oil prices may increase due to reduced supply from Venezuela, the broader U.S. economy might experience some ripple effects, particularly in sectors closely tied to petroleum costs, such as transportation, logistics, and manufacturing.
- The impact might differ by region, with states more reliant on Venezuelan crude potentially feeling the strain faster due to immediate source changes required.
- For individual consumers, changes in fuel prices can affect spending power and overall economic satisfaction as consumer costs rise.
- Refineries and workers tied to oil processing will likely experience greater and faster adjustments in the policy's rollout.
Simulated Interviews
Oil Refinery Engineer (Texas)
Age: 45 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I worry about the future of my job if we can't source comparable crude oil.
- The policy could lead to adjustments that might include layoffs or pay cuts.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 7 |
Logistics Manager (California)
Age: 37 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 6/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Higher fuel prices would strain our transportation budgets significantly.
- I'm concerned this will lead to tightening decisions, potentially affecting salaries and jobs.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 7 |
Small Business Owner (New York)
Age: 28 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 2.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Gas price hikes could force me to raise service prices.
- This might turn away customers and hurt revenue in the short term.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 8 |
Retired (Florida)
Age: 52 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 10/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Increasing fuel costs will stretch my budget further as everything else becomes more expensive.
- Retirees like me would need to be more cautious about spending.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 6 |
Industrial Worker (Indiana)
Age: 31 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 4.0 years
Commonness: 7/20
Statement of Opinion:
- We could see layoffs or reduced hours if the factory's operating costs rise too much.
- There's an indirect worry about job stability due to rising raw material costs.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 8 |
Graduate Student (Colorado)
Age: 24 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I see this as a chance to pivot more towards sustainable and green energy solutions.
- We should view this policy as an opportunity to reduce fossil fuel dependency.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 9 |
School Teacher (New Jersey)
Age: 40 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 2.0 years
Commonness: 9/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Higher fuel prices could limit school budgets further and increase my commuting costs.
- While the cause is just, the immediate effect on daily life is concerning for teachers like me.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 6 |
Refinery Owner (Louisiana)
Age: 60 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 2/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Finding new heavy crude sources with similar costs is a logistical nightmare.
- I might need to reconsider my business model if we can't adapt quickly enough.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 8 |
Intern at a Tech Startup (Washington)
Age: 22 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 0.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Higher fuel costs might inadvertently motivate greater investment in my field.
- It's a potential catalyst for the tech sector to innovate in energy solutions.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 9 |
Truck Driver (Alabama)
Age: 50 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 8/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I'm worried about the rising costs of doing my job with diesel price increases.
- We'll need to work harder to maintain income with longer routes or more hours.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 7 |
Cost Estimates
Year 1: $300000000 (Low: $200000000, High: $400000000)
Year 2: $305000000 (Low: $205000000, High: $405000000)
Year 3: $310000000 (Low: $210000000, High: $410000000)
Year 5: $320000000 (Low: $220000000, High: $420000000)
Year 10: $350000000 (Low: $250000000, High: $450000000)
Year 100: $500000000 (Low: $400000000, High: $600000000)
Key Considerations
- The oil trade ban may lead to short-term disruptions but could incentivize domestic and alternative international supply chains.
- Potential diplomatic repercussions with Venezuela and allied nations could alter geopolitical dynamics in the region.
- Adjustments in refining capacity and processes may have unintended long-term economic effects on the U.S. energy sector.