Policy Impact Analysis - 117/HR/7010

Bill Overview

Title: Emergency Relief from Duties Act

Description: This bill provides for a temporary waiver of countervailing and antidumping duties relating to fertilizer or fertilizer ingredients in emergency situations. Specifically, a covered party (e.g., a manufacturer, trade association, or other interested party) may petition the U.S. International Trade Commission (USITC) to waive countervailing or antidumping duties assessed for fertilizer or fertilizer ingredients (or renew such a waiver) in emergency situations that limit the production or supply of fertilizer or fertilizer ingredients. The bill requires the USITC to (1) allow the public to submit comments on any petition for a waiver or renewal; and (2) issue, within 30 days after the close of the public comment period, a final decision concerning the waiver or renewal. Any waiver or renewal shall be for a period of one year.

Sponsors: Rep. Mann, Tracey [R-KS-1]

Target Audience

Population: People reliant on global agricultural systems

Estimated Size: 332000000

Reasoning

Simulated Interviews

Corn Farmer (Iowa)

Age: 45 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 1.0 years

Commonness: 4/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This policy could be vital during shortages; anything that helps avoid driving fertilizer costs sky-high is good for us.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 8 5
Year 2 8 5
Year 3 7 4
Year 5 7 4
Year 10 6 3
Year 20 6 3

Organic Farmer (California)

Age: 38 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 1.0 years

Commonness: 5/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Since we don't rely on chemical fertilizers, this policy doesn't directly impact us, but could affect overall market dynamics.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 7 6
Year 3 7 6
Year 5 6 5
Year 10 6 5
Year 20 5 4

Agricultural Trade Association Executive (Texas)

Age: 55 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 2.0 years

Commonness: 2/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This policy is a sensible safeguard. We need mechanisms to address emergency supply chain issues.
  • Waiving duties can help our industry smooth out supply blips.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 5
Year 2 6 5
Year 3 6 5
Year 5 5 4
Year 10 5 4
Year 20 4 3

Retired, former USDA Employee (Nebraska)

Age: 62 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 3/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • If implemented right, this will be a powerful tool to manage prices during crises and enhance food security.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 6
Year 2 6 5
Year 3 7 5
Year 5 7 5
Year 10 7 5
Year 20 7 5

Graduate Student in Environmental Studies (Florida)

Age: 29 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 0.0 years

Commonness: 6/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • The short-term benefits might be there, but we should focus more on sustainable solutions.
  • Emergency waivers might overlook long-term environmental impacts.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 7 7
Year 3 7 7
Year 5 6 6
Year 10 6 6
Year 20 6 6

Owner of a Large Agricultural Supply Company (Missouri)

Age: 50 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 3.0 years

Commonness: 5/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Having a mechanism for waivers is critical to manage unexpected spikes in demand or supply chain issues. It helps our business adapt quickly.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 6
Year 2 6 5
Year 3 7 6
Year 5 6 5
Year 10 6 4
Year 20 5 4

Wheat Farmer (Kansas)

Age: 56 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 1.0 years

Commonness: 4/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Fertilizer costs are a huge factor in our operation's viability. Emergency waivers might just keep us afloat during tough times.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 5
Year 2 7 5
Year 3 6 4
Year 5 6 4
Year 10 5 3
Year 20 5 3

Agricultural Policy Analyst (Montana)

Age: 33 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 2.0 years

Commonness: 3/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Waivers during emergencies can be smart policy, but need robust checks to ensure they're not misused.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 6
Year 2 7 6
Year 3 6 5
Year 5 6 5
Year 10 6 5
Year 20 6 5

Environmental Activist (Ohio)

Age: 41 | Gender: other

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 0.0 years

Commonness: 4/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Policies like this often miss the bigger picture of environmental impacts, though they might address immediate supply issues.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 6
Year 2 6 6
Year 3 6 6
Year 5 6 6
Year 10 5 5
Year 20 5 5

Dairy Farmer (Minnesota)

Age: 31 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 2.0 years

Commonness: 3/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • The cost of feed is tied directly to fertilizer prices; anything that stabilizes costs is beneficial for dairy operations.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 5
Year 2 6 5
Year 3 6 4
Year 5 5 4
Year 10 5 3
Year 20 5 3

Cost Estimates

Year 1: $50000000 (Low: $30000000, High: $80000000)

Year 2: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)

Year 3: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)

Year 5: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)

Year 10: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)

Year 100: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)

Key Considerations