Policy Impact Analysis - 117/HR/7009

Bill Overview

Title: Use Stocks, Stop Russia Act of 2022

Description: This bill places a temporary ban on (1) the importation of petroleum products from Russia, and (2) the drawdown and sale of petroleum products from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. In addition, it approves the TransCanada Keystone Pipeline. Specifically, the bill requires the President to ban the importation of petroleum products from Russia until all hostile Russian troops have been withdrawn from Ukraine. The bill also requires the President to ban the drawdown and sale of petroleum products from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve until such troops have withdrawn. Finally, the bill approves the Keystone Pipeline in Phillips County, Montana for the import of oil from Canada to the United States.

Sponsors: Rep. Mann, Tracey [R-KS-1]

Target Audience

Population: people impacted by changes in oil trade and prices due to the bill

Estimated Size: 250000000

Reasoning

Simulated Interviews

Petroleum Engineer (Houston, Texas)

Age: 45 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 8

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 4/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • While I understand the geopolitical motivations, the ban on Russian imports might disrupt oil prices and impact our company's strategic planning.
  • I am optimistic about the Keystone Pipeline as it could stabilize job opportunities in our sector.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 8
Year 2 7 8
Year 3 8 8
Year 5 8 8
Year 10 8 9
Year 20 9 9

Ride-share Driver (Los Angeles, California)

Age: 30 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 2.0 years

Commonness: 7/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Gas prices are already challenging, and anything that affects supply could make my living costs unbearable.
  • I am less concerned about the pipeline as I'm focused on immediate cost pressures.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 4 6
Year 2 5 6
Year 3 6 6
Year 5 6 7
Year 10 7 7
Year 20 7 8

Retired Farmer (Great Falls, Montana)

Age: 60 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 15.0 years

Commonness: 3/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • The construction of the pipeline worries me due to potential land disruption and environmental concerns.
  • I also understand the national energy security perspective.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 4 5
Year 2 4 5
Year 3 5 5
Year 5 6 6
Year 10 5 7
Year 20 5 7

Software Developer (Chicago, Illinois)

Age: 25 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 1.0 years

Commonness: 10/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • If fuel prices increase, my restaurant and grocery bills might go up.
  • Not directly affected by the pipeline activities since I use public transport mostly.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 7 7
Year 3 7 8
Year 5 8 8
Year 10 8 8
Year 20 9 9

Environmental Activist (Boston, Massachusetts)

Age: 50 | Gender: other

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 5/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I oppose any further pipeline development due to environmental concerns.
  • The ban on Russian imports aligns with pushing for more renewable energy solutions.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 5
Year 2 6 5
Year 3 5 5
Year 5 5 5
Year 10 6 6
Year 20 6 7

Financial Analyst (New York City, New York)

Age: 40 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 2.0 years

Commonness: 6/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Market volatility is both an opportunity and a risk, given the shifting oil trade dynamics.
  • The [policy] might induce more market activities beneficial for short-term trading.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 7 8
Year 3 8 8
Year 5 8 9
Year 10 8 9
Year 20 8 9

Local Business Owner (Fargo, North Dakota)

Age: 55 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 3.0 years

Commonness: 8/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Any spike in oil prices could increase my shipping costs, affecting my margins.
  • The pipeline might eventually stabilize some of these costs long-term.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 6
Year 2 6 7
Year 3 7 7
Year 5 7 8
Year 10 8 8
Year 20 8 9

Freelance Graphic Designer (Miami, Florida)

Age: 35 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 0.5 years

Commonness: 9/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I am supportive of moves away from fossil fuel dependence and any geopolitical strategies that de-escalate conflict.
  • The impact on my daily life is minimal, given my work-from-home arrangement.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 7 8
Year 3 8 8
Year 5 9 9
Year 10 9 9
Year 20 9 9

Automotive Worker (Detroit, Michigan)

Age: 29 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 4.0 years

Commonness: 6/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Higher fuel prices directly affect vehicle sales and job security.
  • The policy brings uncertainty in demand forecasts. It could mean less overtime or even layoffs.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 6
Year 2 6 7
Year 3 6 7
Year 5 7 8
Year 10 7 8
Year 20 8 9

Retired School Teacher (Phoenix, Arizona)

Age: 65 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 1.0 years

Commonness: 5/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Gas price increases can erode my fixed income, but I understand the need for international pressure mechanisms.
  • I'm concerned about the pipeline's environmental risks as well.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 6
Year 2 6 6
Year 3 6 6
Year 5 6 7
Year 10 6 7
Year 20 7 8

Cost Estimates

Year 1: $50000000 (Low: $30000000, High: $75000000)

Year 2: $20000000 (Low: $10000000, High: $40000000)

Year 3: $15000000 (Low: $5000000, High: $30000000)

Year 5: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)

Year 10: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)

Year 100: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)

Key Considerations