Bill Overview
Title: Use Stocks, Stop Russia Act of 2022
Description: This bill places a temporary ban on (1) the importation of petroleum products from Russia, and (2) the drawdown and sale of petroleum products from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. In addition, it approves the TransCanada Keystone Pipeline. Specifically, the bill requires the President to ban the importation of petroleum products from Russia until all hostile Russian troops have been withdrawn from Ukraine. The bill also requires the President to ban the drawdown and sale of petroleum products from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve until such troops have withdrawn. Finally, the bill approves the Keystone Pipeline in Phillips County, Montana for the import of oil from Canada to the United States.
Sponsors: Rep. Mann, Tracey [R-KS-1]
Target Audience
Population: people impacted by changes in oil trade and prices due to the bill
Estimated Size: 250000000
- The bill affects global oil markets by banning the import of Russian petroleum products.
- European countries reliant on Russian oil supplies might adjust their trade policies due to the U.S. ban, potentially affecting their citizens.
- Globally, consumers could experience changes in oil prices due to shifts in supply and demand.
- The Keystone Pipeline could influence Canadian oil export dynamics, affecting Canadian energy sector workers.
- People in Ukraine might indirectly benefit if the legislation contributes to ending the conflict by restricting Russian resources.
Reasoning
- The policy's primary impact will be on American consumers who purchase gasoline and other petroleum products, as well as U.S. energy sector workers and communities near the Keystone Pipeline route.
- There are cost constraints, so the policy's effects must be substantial but not overly widespread given the budget limitations.
- People in areas with already volatile oil prices are likely to feel more pronounced effects than those in regions with stable energy supplies.
- The policy might not significantly impact people who do not rely heavily on personal transportation or those with alternative energy solutions.
Simulated Interviews
Petroleum Engineer (Houston, Texas)
Age: 45 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- While I understand the geopolitical motivations, the ban on Russian imports might disrupt oil prices and impact our company's strategic planning.
- I am optimistic about the Keystone Pipeline as it could stabilize job opportunities in our sector.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 9 |
Ride-share Driver (Los Angeles, California)
Age: 30 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 2.0 years
Commonness: 7/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Gas prices are already challenging, and anything that affects supply could make my living costs unbearable.
- I am less concerned about the pipeline as I'm focused on immediate cost pressures.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 4 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 8 |
Retired Farmer (Great Falls, Montana)
Age: 60 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 15.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The construction of the pipeline worries me due to potential land disruption and environmental concerns.
- I also understand the national energy security perspective.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 4 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 4 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 5 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 5 | 7 |
Software Developer (Chicago, Illinois)
Age: 25 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 1.0 years
Commonness: 10/20
Statement of Opinion:
- If fuel prices increase, my restaurant and grocery bills might go up.
- Not directly affected by the pipeline activities since I use public transport mostly.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 9 |
Environmental Activist (Boston, Massachusetts)
Age: 50 | Gender: other
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I oppose any further pipeline development due to environmental concerns.
- The ban on Russian imports aligns with pushing for more renewable energy solutions.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 7 |
Financial Analyst (New York City, New York)
Age: 40 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 2.0 years
Commonness: 6/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Market volatility is both an opportunity and a risk, given the shifting oil trade dynamics.
- The [policy] might induce more market activities beneficial for short-term trading.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 9 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 9 |
Local Business Owner (Fargo, North Dakota)
Age: 55 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 8/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Any spike in oil prices could increase my shipping costs, affecting my margins.
- The pipeline might eventually stabilize some of these costs long-term.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 9 |
Freelance Graphic Designer (Miami, Florida)
Age: 35 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 0.5 years
Commonness: 9/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I am supportive of moves away from fossil fuel dependence and any geopolitical strategies that de-escalate conflict.
- The impact on my daily life is minimal, given my work-from-home arrangement.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 9 |
Automotive Worker (Detroit, Michigan)
Age: 29 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 4.0 years
Commonness: 6/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Higher fuel prices directly affect vehicle sales and job security.
- The policy brings uncertainty in demand forecasts. It could mean less overtime or even layoffs.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 9 |
Retired School Teacher (Phoenix, Arizona)
Age: 65 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 1.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Gas price increases can erode my fixed income, but I understand the need for international pressure mechanisms.
- I'm concerned about the pipeline's environmental risks as well.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 8 |
Cost Estimates
Year 1: $50000000 (Low: $30000000, High: $75000000)
Year 2: $20000000 (Low: $10000000, High: $40000000)
Year 3: $15000000 (Low: $5000000, High: $30000000)
Year 5: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)
Year 10: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)
Year 100: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)
Key Considerations
- Environmental impacts and resistance to the construction of the Keystone Pipeline could delay benefits.
- Enforcement of the ban requires coordination between federal agencies and private sector entities.
- Global oil market volatility can lead to unpredictable economic impacts.
- There may be opposition from industries reliant on Russian petroleum.