Bill Overview
Title: Stopping the Fraudulent Sales of Firearms Act
Description: This bill makes it unlawful to import, manufacture, or sell a firearm or ammunition by fraudulent means (e.g., false representations). Further, it makes it unlawful to transmit a wire, radio, or television communication in interstate or foreign commerce related to such a fraudulent importation, manufacture, or sale. A violator is subject to criminal penalties—a fine, a prison term of up to five years, or both.
Sponsors: Rep. Scanlon, Mary Gay [D-PA-5]
Target Audience
Population: People who manufacture, sell, or import firearms
Estimated Size: 1000000
- The bill focuses on preventing fraudulent activities related to firearms, so it primarily targets sellers and manufacturers who may engage in such activities.
- Individuals and entities involved in the sale, manufacture, or importation of firearms would need to adhere to stricter regulations, thus affecting their operations.
- A significant number of firearms are sold in the United States annually, involving many retailers and manufacturers.
- Ensuring lawful sales practices could influence secondary markets and private sellers engaged in potentially fraudulent transactions.
- While not directly targeting gun owners, legal gun buyers might be indirectly affected if manufacturers and sellers have to alter processes to avoid fraudulent practices.
Reasoning
- The policy directly impacts firearm dealers and manufacturers, specifically those with the potential for fraudulent transactions.
- Given the estimation of 1,000,000 people impacted, we include both those who are directly in the sector and those indirectly affected (like legal buyers).
- The effects on wellbeing are assessed based on potential economic impacts, legal complications, and secondary market changes.
- A portion of the population will remain unaffected (e.g., non-buyers or sellers), hence we simulate a range of perspectives.
- Budget constraints imply limited initial enforcement, impacting fewer people directly at first, with growing influence over 10 years.
Simulated Interviews
firearm dealer (Texas)
Age: 45 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I welcome the policy if it brings legitimacy to our trade.
- Stricter checks could reduce the stigma we face as sellers.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 7 |
firearms manufacturer employee (California)
Age: 32 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 20.0 years
Commonness: 8/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Increased regulation means more oversight responsibilities.
- Job security might improve if the market becomes more stable.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 6 |
private gun seller (Virginia)
Age: 29 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 10/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This policy could disrupt my sales model seriously.
- I worry about increased scrutiny and possible shutdown.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 4 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 4 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 3 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 3 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 3 | 6 |
law enforcement officer (New York)
Age: 53 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 20.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This policy is a step toward reducing illegal firearms.
- We might see a decrease in gun-related crimes.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 8 |
farmer (Montana)
Age: 38 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 15/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This law shouldn’t impact me much as a hobbyist buyer.
- Could increase the cost slightly due to compliance.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 7 |
gun rights advocate (Washington)
Age: 25 | Gender: other
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 2.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Concerned about the impact on lawful gun sellers.
- Policy may be a slippery slope for more regulation.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 4 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 4 | 5 |
retired teacher (Florida)
Age: 60 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 0.0 years
Commonness: 12/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I support efforts to make communities safer.
- No direct impact on my life.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 6 |
online firearms retailer (Arizona)
Age: 47 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 7.0 years
Commonness: 6/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Because I follow the law, this won’t change much for me.
- Could weed out bad actors online.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 7 |
public health researcher (Illinois)
Age: 51 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 15.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This could lead to useful insights into the impact of stricter sales laws.
- Could improve public health outcomes.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 7 |
illegal firearms dealer (Pennsylvania)
Age: 34 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 2/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This policy is a major risk to my operations.
- Fines and jail time are real threats now.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 4 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 4 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 3 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 3 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 3 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 3 | 5 |
Cost Estimates
Year 1: $25000000 (Low: $20000000, High: $30000000)
Year 2: $20000000 (Low: $15000000, High: $25000000)
Year 3: $20000000 (Low: $15000000, High: $25000000)
Year 5: $20000000 (Low: $15000000, High: $25000000)
Year 10: $15000000 (Low: $10000000, High: $20000000)
Year 100: $10000000 (Low: $5000000, High: $15000000)
Key Considerations
- Initial enforcement will require significant resources to ensure regulations are adhered to across a large number of sellers and manufacturers.
- Ensuring compliance across state lines may involve coordination at various jurisdictional levels.
- The bill's success hinges on effective regulatory oversight and public awareness.
- The long-term savings in crime reduction need careful evaluation against enforcement costs.