Bill Overview
Title: No Oil From Terrorists Act
Description: This bill requires the President to prohibit the importation of petroleum products from Iran. Petroleum product means crude oil, residual fuel oil, or any refined petroleum product, including natural gas liquid product. Further, the bill authorizes the President to use appropriate authorities to impose civil or criminal penalties as necessary to enforce the prohibition.
Sponsors: Rep. Banks, Jim [R-IN-3]
Target Audience
Population: People affected by changes in global oil prices due to Iranian import bans
Estimated Size: 150000000
- The global oil market can be affected by changes in oil supply sources, such as a prohibition on imports from a major oil-producing country like Iran.
- Iran is a significant oil exporter, and changes in its oil export levels can impact global oil prices.
- Countries heavily reliant on Iranian oil imports might experience economic impacts due to the need to find alternative sources, which could affect industries and consumers that rely on stable oil supplies.
- Individuals and industries reliant on Iranian petroleum products would need to seek alternative sources, potentially at higher prices.
Reasoning
- The primary impact of this policy will be on global oil prices, which can indirectly affect consumer prices for gasoline and energy in the U.S.
- As the U.S. is not heavily reliant on Iranian oil, the direct impact is expected to be marginal for most consumers.
- Industries involved in oil refining or dependent on specific types of oil products may face more significant impacts due to adjustments in sourcing and pricing.
- Given the budget limits, direct assistance to offset price increases can only cover a small subset of affected people if needed.
Simulated Interviews
Oil industry executive (Houston, Texas)
Age: 45 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 10/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The prohibition might increase operational costs as we navigate alternative crude sources.
- We may pass some cost increases to customers, affecting gasoline prices.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 7 |
Software Engineer (San Francisco, California)
Age: 34 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 1.0 years
Commonness: 15/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I expect my living costs to stay mostly the same, as I don't drive much.
- The policy seems more of a geopolitical stance.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 8 |
Auto Manufacturing Worker (Detroit, Michigan)
Age: 58 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 12/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Our factory might face some cost pressures from higher oil prices.
- Job stability could be an issue if costs force cutbacks.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 6 |
Financial Analyst (New York, New York)
Age: 29 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 2.0 years
Commonness: 14/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This policy might create volatility in the energy sector, providing new investment opportunities.
- Overall, I see it as a chance to capitalize on market shifts.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 7 |
Policy Analyst (Washington, D.C.)
Age: 50 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 8/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The policy aligns with existing sanctions, reinforcing U.S. stance on energy independence.
- Concerns remain about unintended economic impacts on low-income consumers through gas prices.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 8 |
Retiree (Des Moines, Iowa)
Age: 65 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 2.0 years
Commonness: 11/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Gas prices are a big part of my budget, and any increase would be challenging.
- I hope there are ways to keep costs stable.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 5 | 5 |
Truck Driver (Phoenix, Arizona)
Age: 40 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 4.0 years
Commonness: 9/20
Statement of Opinion:
- My job depends on fuel costs, and any price hikes mean lower take-home pay.
- The company might impose stricter fuel budgets.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 6 |
Student (Miami, Florida)
Age: 24 | Gender: other
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 1.0 years
Commonness: 16/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I'm concerned about environmental policies, but this seems like a geopolitical move.
- It might indirectly affect my travel costs.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 8 |
Freelance Graphic Designer (Los Angeles, California)
Age: 37 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 9
Duration of Impact: 0.0 years
Commonness: 7/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Any increase in oil-related prices won't dramatically affect my remote work life.
- The policy itself seems like it won't have much direct impact on me.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 2 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 3 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 9 |
Restaurant Owner (Chicago, Illinois)
Age: 43 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 13/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Our business model includes sustainable practices, so oil prices indirectly affect costs.
- We'll need to watch supply chain costs if prices rise.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 7 |
Cost Estimates
Year 1: $80000000 (Low: $60000000, High: $100000000)
Year 2: $82000000 (Low: $62000000, High: $102000000)
Year 3: $84000000 (Low: $64000000, High: $104000000)
Year 5: $88000000 (Low: $68000000, High: $108000000)
Year 10: $95000000 (Low: $72000000, High: $115000000)
Year 100: $120000000 (Low: $90000000, High: $150000000)
Key Considerations
- Potential impact on global oil prices and U.S. energy costs.
- Political and strategic implications of limiting imports from Iran.
- Potential administrative and enforcement costs associated with the new regulations.