Bill Overview
Title: Ending Importation of Russian Oil Act
Description: This bill prohibits the importation of energy products from Russia. Specifically, the bill prohibits the importation of Russian products that are classified under chapter 27 of the Harmonized Tariff Schedule (which includes mineral fuels, mineral oils and products of their distillation, bituminous substances, and mineral waxes). The President may terminate this prohibition, subject to congressional disapproval, if the President certifies that Russia (1) has reached an agreement to withdraw Russian forces and cease military hostilities in Ukraine, (2) poses no immediate military threat of aggression to any North Atlantic Treaty Organization member, and (3) recognizes the right of the Ukrainian people to independently and freely choose their own government.
Sponsors: Rep. Doggett, Lloyd [D-TX-35]
Target Audience
Population: People influenced by global energy markets
Estimated Size: 330000000
- The bill directly affects entities involved in the trade of mineral fuels and oils, specifically those importing from Russia.
- Consumers in countries relying on Russian oil may experience changes in oil supply and potentially in oil prices.
- Energy companies will need to adjust their supply chains and possibly seek alternative sources.
- Countries in Europe are particularly dependent on Russian oil, and their citizens will be impacted by potential changes in energy costs and availability.
Reasoning
- The US population that imports Russian oil is relatively small, primarily consisting of companies and corporations importing directly.
- Energy prices may indirectly affect a broader audience due to potential changes in the supply chain or price changes in oil products like gasoline and heating oil.
- Only a few individuals are directly employed in roles primarily dependent on Russian oil imports, hence the direct impact on employment at individual level is low.
- A proportion of consumers might notice changed prices, but impacts may be moderated by shift to alternative oil sources.
- Budget constraints might not fully address potential short-term disruptions before new supply chains can stabilize.
Simulated Interviews
Oil Industry Executive (Houston, Texas)
Age: 45 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 2/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This policy forces us to innovate on supply chains, but it's challenging.
- Long term, we need to absorb costs and risk short-term losses.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 8 |
Environmental Activist (Los Angeles, California)
Age: 32 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 20.0 years
Commonness: 8/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I support any move that lessens dependency on fossil fuels from oppressive regimes.
- This could accelerate renewable energy adoption.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 7 |
Financial Analyst (New York, New York)
Age: 54 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Market volatility might rise initially, affecting investments.
- Diversification in energy sectors will be crucial.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 7 |
Gas Station Owner (Chicago, Illinois)
Age: 28 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 7/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I'm worried about fuel prices affecting my business.
- I'll need to adjust prices and margins carefully.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 6 |
Truck Driver (Bismarck, North Dakota)
Age: 40 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 6/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Higher fuel prices can cut into our paycheck.
- We might adjust routes to minimize fuel costs.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 6 |
Retired (Baton Rouge, Louisiana)
Age: 60 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 10/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Energy price stability is critical for seniors on fixed incomes.
- Inflation is a concern.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 4 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 5 |
Climate Scientist (Reno, Nevada)
Age: 25 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 20.0 years
Commonness: 9/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Less reliance on Russian oil is better for climate goals.
- Policy can hasten energy sector's shift to greener sources.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 7 |
Single Parent (Miami, Florida)
Age: 37 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 12/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Higher fuel costs translate directly to higher living costs.
- I'm concerned about balancing family budget.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 6 |
Small Business Owner (Dallas, Texas)
Age: 43 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This creates business opportunities for renewables.
- There's potential for growth and innovation.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 7 |
Community Organizer (Portland, Oregon)
Age: 65 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 20.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Policy aligns with goals for local energy independence.
- Encourages community to embrace renewables.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 10 | 7 |
Cost Estimates
Year 1: $500000000 (Low: $300000000, High: $800000000)
Year 2: $100000000 (Low: $50000000, High: $150000000)
Year 3: $25000000 (Low: $10000000, High: $50000000)
Year 5: $10000000 (Low: $5000000, High: $20000000)
Year 10: $5000000 (Low: $2000000, High: $10000000)
Year 100: $0 (Low: $0, High: $5000000)
Key Considerations
- The global energy market is very sensitive to supply changes which can cause significant price volatility.
- U.S energy security and geopolitical considerations amid Russian aggression.
- Long-term potential for strengthening domestic energy production and supply chains increases U.S. energy independence.