Bill Overview
Title: Ban Russian Energy Imports Act
Description: This bill declares that a national emergency exists with respect to the aggression of Russia against Ukraine. During this emergency, the President must prohibit the importation of crude oil, petroleum, petroleum products, liquefied natural gas, and coal in which Russia or a Russian national has any interest. The bill exempts products that are already loaded or in transit at the time of this bill's enactment.
Sponsors: Rep. Gottheimer, Josh [D-NJ-5]
Target Audience
Population: People reliant on Russian energy exports
Estimated Size: 10000000
- The bill will affect countries that rely on Russian energy exports, particularly in Europe, where many countries import significant amounts of Russian oil, gas, and coal.
- Globally, any country that imports Russian energy, even minimally, could be impacted as they will need to seek alternative sources.
- Energy companies worldwide that either purchase Russian energy directly or have contracts involving Russian energy products will need to reassess their supply chains.
- The global oil market might experience shifts in supply and demand dynamics due to the reduction in available Russian energy products, affecting prices suddenly and impacting economies worldwide.
Reasoning
- The policy target is primarily industries and individuals in the U.S. who have some level of reliance on Russian energy imports, which is relatively small compared to Europe.
- We expect to see impact primarily in terms of global oil price fluctuations leading to potential indirect economic consequences such as increased costs for transportation and manufacturing.
- The U.S. budget for supporting affected industries or mitigating sharp price increases is fairly limited in its first year compared to potential global market shifts.
- Wellbeing impacts can vary widely based on individual reliance on energy costs, with larger effects seen in economically sensitive sectors or lower-income households.
- Given the nature of the U.S. energy mix, the direct impact should be limited to price changes rather than availability issues.
Simulated Interviews
Energy sector analyst (Houston, TX)
Age: 47 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 6/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Indirect consequences most likely through job security owing to market disruptions.
- Overall concern about price fluctuations and how they might affect broader economy.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 7 |
Automobile manufacturing plant worker (Detroit, MI)
Age: 52 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 8/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Worries about potential layoffs or reduced hours if fuel prices spike significantly.
- Anxious about personal commuting costs rising.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 4 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 4 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 6 |
Financial advisor (New York, NY)
Age: 36 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 2.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Sees potential for growth in renewable sector as a diversification from fossil fuels.
- Concerns for clients with direct investment in oil and gas.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 9 |
Retired farm owner (Billings, MT)
Age: 62 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 2.0 years
Commonness: 7/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Not directly affected by Russian energy but sensitive to fuel price increases.
- Concerned about increased living costs on a fixed income.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 6 |
Renewable energy entrepreneur (San Francisco, CA)
Age: 29 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 9
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Positive outlook due to potential increased investment and opportunity in renewables.
- Believes policy aligns with long-term clean energy goals.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 2 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 3 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 10 | 10 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 10 | 9 |
Transportation industry executive (Los Angeles, CA)
Age: 30 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 6/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Skeptical of long-term stability due to geopolitical tensions affecting energy prices.
- High awareness of potential upsurge in operational costs.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 8 |
Airline pilot (Miami, FL)
Age: 40 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- High potential policy risk to personal income via airline profitability and job security.
- Concerned about rising ticket prices affecting travel volume.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 7 |
Public transit rider, part-time retail worker (Chicago, IL)
Age: 24 | Gender: other
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 7/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Anxious about possible rise in transit fares if fuel costs increase significantly.
- Living paycheck to paycheck means any increase in cost of living can have significant impacts.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 4 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 4 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 6 |
Retired teacher (Phoenix, AZ)
Age: 73 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 2.0 years
Commonness: 9/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Direct impact unlikely but concerned about general inflation and energy prices.
- Limited flexibility to adapt financially to price increases.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 7 |
Software engineer (Seattle, WA)
Age: 50 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 0.0 years
Commonness: 8/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Little to no personal impact by changes to energy imports.
- Potential indirect effects via broader economic ripple effects but not significantly worried.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 8 |
Cost Estimates
Year 1: $500000000 (Low: $300000000, High: $1000000000)
Year 2: $700000000 (Low: $400000000, High: $1200000000)
Year 3: $900000000 (Low: $500000000, High: $1400000000)
Year 5: $970000000 (Low: $600000000, High: $1500000000)
Year 10: $1000000000 (Low: $700000000, High: $1600000000)
Year 100: $1300000000 (Low: $800000000, High: $2000000000)
Key Considerations
- Potential fluctuations in energy prices can impact the cost of living and production costs across various sectors.
- The necessity to rapidly adjust domestic and international energy supply chains.
- Geopolitical considerations and reactions from allied nations also dependent on Russian energy.
- Strategic importance of reducing dependency on geopolitical rivals.