Bill Overview
Title: To prohibit the importation of oil and gas products from Russia, Iran, or Venezuela, and for other purposes.
Description: This bill prohibits the importation of petroleum products from Russia, Iran, or Venezuela. Petroleum product means crude oil, residual fuel oil, or any refined petroleum product, including natural gas liquid product.
Sponsors: Rep. Green, Mark E. [R-TN-7]
Target Audience
Population: People dependent on the global oil and gas supply chain
Estimated Size: 250000000
- Oil and gas are major commodities with global economic significance.
- The bill affects countries that are major exporters of oil and gas, specifically targeting Russia, Iran, and Venezuela.
- These countries have economies that are heavily dependent on the export of oil and gas products.
- Oil and gas importing countries will need to find alternative sources, impacting international oil and gas trade.
- Countries dependent on exports from these nations will need to adjust their supply chains, affecting businesses and potentially consumers directly.
Reasoning
- The US has a large consumer base that relies on petroleum for heating and transportation, meaning many ordinary households could be indirectly impacted by price increases or supply shortages.
- People employed in the energy sector, particularly in areas related to logistics and refining, may experience the most direct effects on their employment and business operations.
- Alternative sourcing could drive up costs initially until supply chains stabilize, potentially impacting sectors beyond those directly related to oil and gas.
- The budget constraints suggest a limited capacity to mitigate impacts, meaning that the primary outcomes will be market-driven rather than policy-supported interventions.
- Policy implementation could indirectly benefit domestic energy production, possibly leading to increased employment in some sectors over time.
Simulated Interviews
Oil and gas industry analyst (Houston, TX)
Age: 35 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I am worried about job stability if imports are restricted.
- Our company relies heavily on imports from these nations; we might need to find new suppliers which could be costlier.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 7 |
Logistics manager (Atlanta, GA)
Age: 42 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Rising oil prices could increase shipping costs, impacting my work.
- My heating bills could increase, affecting household budget.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 6 |
Small business owner (Los Angeles, CA)
Age: 29 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 2.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Supply disruptions could hurt my business as I might have to increase prices.
- It's challenging as a small business to absorb cost fluctuations.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 4 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 5 |
Public transportation planner (New York, NY)
Age: 50 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 6/20
Statement of Opinion:
- We could face challenges keeping public transport affordable.
- Planning needs to anticipate fuel shortages.
- This might accelerate a transition to electric buses, which is a positive but costs more initially.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 7 |
Energy company worker (Oklahoma City, OK)
Age: 37 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 7/20
Statement of Opinion:
- While international tensions increase, local drilling could actually boost opportunities for us.
- In the short term, prices might spike which is worrying, but long-term gains are possible with policy-driven local demand.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 6 |
Retired (Miami, FL)
Age: 63 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 10/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Higher oil prices will strain my fixed budget, making it harder to make ends meet.
- I'm concerned about the winter heating costs increasing.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 4 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 5 |
Software engineer (San Francisco, CA)
Age: 28 | Gender: other
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 0.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I don't directly depend on oil, but changes could increase travel costs for family visits.
- Potential commodity prices influencing tech costs indirectly worry me more.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 8 |
Financial advisor (Chicago, IL)
Age: 45 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 2.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Clients are concerned about the volatility in energy markets.
- My role is to stabilize their portfolios, but this creates opportunities for new US energy market investments.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 7 |
Auto manufacturing technician (Detroit, MI)
Age: 39 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 8/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Changes in oil import rules might speed up the shift toward electric cars.
- Immediate job impact is low, but the industry transition could impact us long-term.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 6 |
College student (Austin, TX)
Age: 25 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 1.0 years
Commonness: 6/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I rely on stable public transport costs, a price hike could affect me.
- Affordable transit is crucial for students.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 7 |
Cost Estimates
Year 1: $500000000 (Low: $300000000, High: $700000000)
Year 2: $400000000 (Low: $250000000, High: $600000000)
Year 3: $350000000 (Low: $200000000, High: $550000000)
Year 5: $300000000 (Low: $150000000, High: $500000000)
Year 10: $275000000 (Low: $125000000, High: $475000000)
Year 100: $250000000 (Low: $100000000, High: $450000000)
Key Considerations
- Impact on global oil prices due to changes in supply-demand dynamics.
- Impact on US foreign relations and energy independence.
- Need for enhanced enforcement mechanisms to ensure compliance with the bill.
- Potential acceleration in domestic renewable energy initiatives.