Bill Overview
Title: Prohibition on Imports of Russian Oil Act
Description: This bill requires the President to prohibit the importation of petroleum products from Russia. Petroleum product means crude oil, residual fuel oil, or any refined petroleum product, including natural gas liquid product. Further, the bill authorizes the President to (1) modify or remove the prohibition for some or all petroleum products if the President notifies Congress that such modification or removal is appropriate given the situation in Ukraine, and (2) use appropriate authorities to impose civil or criminal penalties as necessary to enforce the prohibition.
Sponsors: Rep. Cole, Tom [R-OK-4]
Target Audience
Population: People affected by global changes in oil supply and prices
Estimated Size: 329500000
- The global oil market is interconnected. Any ban on imports from a major producer like Russia can impact global supply and prices.
- Countries currently dependent on Russian oil imports will have to find alternative sources, impacting their populations.
- Changes in oil prices affect a wide array of industries and can lead to broader economic impacts, potentially affecting the global population.
Reasoning
- The U.S. is notably affected by changes in oil prices due to its high consumption rates. The proposed policy targets the importation of oil from Russia, potentially leading to a rise in oil prices globally due to a decrease in supply.
- This policy does not directly allocate funds to affected individuals in the U.S. Instead, its financial impact might be seen in economic adjustments companies and consumers make in response to changing oil prices.
- Given the interconnectedness of the oil market, individuals in different sectors and geographical locations in the U.S. might experience varying levels of impact—from significant cost of living increases in areas highly dependent on fuel to negligible changes in urban centers with diverse energy sources.
- The population that will most keenly feel this impact consists of those with occupations depending heavily on oil or its by-products, such as those in trucking, aviation, and manufacturing industries.
- Only a segment of the U.S. population might see substantial changes in their Cantril wellbeing scores; however, indirect impacts (such as or increased costs in goods and services) might moderately affect a broader population.
Simulated Interviews
Oil & Gas Industry Worker (Houston, TX)
Age: 45 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I'm concerned about job security as the domestic oil industry adjusts to new trade patterns.
- Higher oil prices might lead to increased operational costs, but could also boost local production benefits.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 9 |
Logistics Manager (Los Angeles, CA)
Age: 38 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 7/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Increased fuel prices could affect our logistics costs and my commute, affecting family budget.
- The policy might push for fuel efficiency improvements ultimately beneficial long-term.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 8 |
Financial Analyst (New York, NY)
Age: 29 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 2.0 years
Commonness: 6/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The policy could create volatility in the market, posing risks but also potential investment opportunities.
- I may need to adjust my financial forecasts and investment strategies.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 9 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 9 |
Retired Schoolteacher (Chicago, IL)
Age: 62 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 8/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I'm worried about increased heating and transportation costs impacting my limited budget.
- I support reducing dependence on foreign oil.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 8 |
Small Business Owner (Miami, FL)
Age: 55 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 7.0 years
Commonness: 6/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Fuel budget increases reduce profitability, though price adjustments may mitigate some impact.
- Prices on imported goods might rise, calling for operational adjustments.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 8 |
Technology Consultant (Seattle, WA)
Age: 23 | Gender: other
Wellbeing Before Policy: 9
Duration of Impact: 1.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The policy is a step towards bigger geopolitical decisions I'm viewing neutrally given my lifestyle.
- I expect minimal personal impact.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 2 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 3 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 9 |
Truck Driver (Phoenix, AZ)
Age: 48 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 20.0 years
Commonness: 6/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Increased fuel prices can drastically affect income.
- Driver demand and rates might increase, balancing some challenges.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 4 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 4 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 8 |
Public School Teacher (Atlanta, GA)
Age: 37 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 7/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Cost of living rise could strain my budget, despite using public transport.
- I support reducing reliance on foreign energy resources.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 9 |
Factory Worker (Saint Paul, MN)
Age: 54 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 8/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Raw material costs might rise affecting factory output and job security.
- Higher consumer prices could harm wage earners.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 4 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 4 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 8 |
Research Scientist (Retired) (Boston, MA)
Age: 65 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 9
Duration of Impact: 2.0 years
Commonness: 7/20
Statement of Opinion:
- A necessary step toward environmental responsibility despite possible cost hikes.
- I hope this stimulates investment in sustainable energy alternatives.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 9 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 9 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 9 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 10 |
Cost Estimates
Year 1: $1500000000 (Low: $1000000000, High: $2500000000)
Year 2: $1300000000 (Low: $900000000, High: $2200000000)
Year 3: $1200000000 (Low: $800000000, High: $2000000000)
Year 5: $1000000000 (Low: $600000000, High: $1800000000)
Year 10: $700000000 (Low: $400000000, High: $1500000000)
Year 100: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)
Key Considerations
- The global oil market is highly interconnected, and changes can cause significant ripple effects worldwide.
- The U.S. will need to secure alternative oil supplies which might come at higher costs.
- There could be geopolitical ramifications, including strain on relationships with other countries reliant on Russian oil.