Bill Overview
Title: Ending Dependence on Russian Energy Act
Description: This bill addresses the production of oil and gas, the importation of oil or natural gas from Russia, and the exportation of oil or natural gas to other countries. Specifically, the bill approves the TransCanada Keystone Pipeline in Phillips County, Montana for the import of oil from Canada to the United States. In addition, the bill requires the President to (1) prohibit the importation of oil or natural gas originating from Russia, and (2) seek to reduce restrictions on the exportation of oil or natural gas originating from the United States.
Sponsors: Rep. Carter, Earl L. "Buddy" [R-GA-1]
Target Audience
Population: Global energy consumers and industries
Estimated Size: 330000000
- The bill aims to ban the importation of oil or gas from Russia which impacts global markets who rely on Russian energy supplies, potentially affecting billions who use energy globally.
- It also seeks to approve the Keystone pipeline, which affects Canadian producers and others involved in North American energy production and distribution.
- The bill pushes for increased U.S. energy exports and reduced restrictions, impacting consumers and industries reliant on U.S. energy exports around the world.
- There will be global impacts on energy prices and supply chains, affecting all nations who trade energy with Russia, Canada, or the USA.
Reasoning
- The bill has several layers of impact: it will immediately affect workers in the energy sector, particularly those related to the construction of the Keystone pipeline; it will affect industries dependent on Russian oil and gas imports, and the ripple effect will reach average consumers.
- The budget constraints mean that significant sectoral shifts will have to be focused rather than spread thinly, targeting infrastructure and regulatory changes.
- Simulations account for rural and urban differences, industrial versus consumer impact, and short versus long-term effects.
Simulated Interviews
Oil and Gas Engineer (Houston, Texas)
Age: 45 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 20.0 years
Commonness: 10/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This new bill potentially opens up more job opportunities for us in the oil industry.
- We are anticipating a busier schedule as U.S. output may increase to replace Russian imports.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 5 |
Environmental Activist (Los Angeles, California)
Age: 32 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 7/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Pushing further into fossil fuels with the Keystone pipeline contradicts our climate goals.
- I'd prefer to see investment in renewable energy over expanding pipeline infrastructure.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 4 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 4 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 3 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 3 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 4 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 5 | 7 |
Construction Worker (Farmington, New Mexico)
Age: 39 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 8/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The Keystone pipeline approval means steady work for us in the immediate future.
- It's projects like these that ensure my livelihood over the years.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 4 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 4 |
| Year 20 | 5 | 3 |
Small Business Owner - Restaurant (Chicago, Illinois)
Age: 29 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 9/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Higher energy exports might lead to increased domestic energy prices, which is bad for my operating costs.
- I try to stay sustainable, but energy prices factor into everything.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 5 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 5 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 7 |
Retired Financial Analyst (New York, New York)
Age: 63 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 20.0 years
Commonness: 12/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Diversifying away from Russian imports is a good market stabilization strategy.
- Long term, these moves could improve U.S. standing in energy and global economics.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 8 |
High School Teacher (Seattle, Washington)
Age: 54 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 15.0 years
Commonness: 11/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The push for more domestic energy production should be accompanied by more investment in renewables.
- I'm concerned about environmental consequences of new pipelines.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 8 |
Energy Consultant (Raleigh, North Carolina)
Age: 41 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 10/20
Statement of Opinion:
- With increased U.S. oil outputs, there might be new consultancy opportunities.
- I am concerned about potential dependency shifts and energy price volatility.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 7 |
Auto Industry Worker (Detroit, Michigan)
Age: 50 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 0.0 years
Commonness: 14/20
Statement of Opinion:
- If oil prices stabilize, it might sway some customers away from electric vehicles.
- Still, our focus on advanced technologies secures my job in the long run.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 6 |
Natural Gas Distributor (Louisville, Kentucky)
Age: 57 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 20.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The expansion of exports is a business opportunity for us, expanding into more markets.
- It aligns with our growth strategy and could lead to higher revenues.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 9 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 7 |
Tech Company HR Manager (San Francisco, California)
Age: 38 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 15/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Even slight fluctuations in energy prices can affect our operational costs.
- We are focused on mitigating any cost increases as much as possible.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 8 |
Cost Estimates
Year 1: $2500000000 (Low: $2000000000, High: $3000000000)
Year 2: $2500000000 (Low: $2000000000, High: $3000000000)
Year 3: $2500000000 (Low: $2000000000, High: $3000000000)
Year 5: $2500000000 (Low: $2000000000, High: $3000000000)
Year 10: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)
Year 100: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)
Key Considerations
- Short-term disruptions in energy markets could result in price volatility, affecting consumer costs and industrial energy use.
- Layoffs or shifts in the workforce from reduced reliance on Russian energy imports could impact certain sectors.
- Environmental concerns and potential legal challenges could delay or increase the cost of the Keystone Pipeline.
- Geopolitical implications from ending reliance on Russian energy may affect international relations and global market stability.