Bill Overview
Title: No Travel for Traffickers Act of 2022
Description: This bill bars from the visa waiver program any country that allows individuals to obtain citizenship by making an investment in that country.
Sponsors: Rep. Owens, Burgess [R-UT-4]
Target Audience
Population: Individuals obtaining citizenship through investment
Estimated Size: 0
- The Visa Waiver Program (VWP) allows citizens of certain countries to travel to the United States for tourism or business for stays of 90 days or less without obtaining a visa.
- As of the latest data, 40 countries participate in the VWP.
- Several countries have Citizenship by Investment (CBI) programs, where individuals can invest a certain amount in the country to obtain citizenship.
- This bill will impact countries with CBI programs, as those countries would be barred from the VWP under this new legislation, affecting their citizens' travel privileges to the U.S.
- Globally, popular destinations for CBI include Caribbean nations such as Saint Kitts and Nevis, Dominica, Grenada, and countries in Europe like Malta and Cyprus.
- The number of individuals obtaining citizenship through investment programs globally each year ranges between 6,000 to 10,000.
Reasoning
- The policy directly impacts foreign nationals from countries offering Citizenship by Investment programs by restricting their access to travel to the U.S. under the Visa Waiver Program. Therefore, the policy does not directly impact U.S. citizens, but it may have indirect effects on industries related to travel and tourism.
- The U.S. businesses in tourism or hospitality sectors could see an impact due to decreased travel originating from affected countries. People working in these sectors might experience indirect effects on their employment and income.
- As the U.S. population itself is not directly targeted by the policy, the distribution of interviews should include stakeholders in the connected industries such as travel agencies, hospitality workers, and individuals with international business interests who might experience indirect changes in wellbeing.
- The policy budget requires cost-effective measures that efficiently target these indirect stakeholder groups, assessing how their wellbeing is influenced over time due to potential shifts in their respective industries.
Simulated Interviews
Hotel Manager (Miami, FL)
Age: 30 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 15/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I'm worried about fewer guests from countries in the Visa Waiver Program, especially those who travel here often.
- This could mean a drop in revenue for our hotel, which might affect my job stability.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 9 |
Travel Agent (Los Angeles, CA)
Age: 45 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 10/20
Statement of Opinion:
- If countries are cut from the VWP, fewer people will book trips through us.
- We might need to change our business focus.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 9 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 9 |
Business Consultant (New York, NY)
Age: 32 | Gender: other
Wellbeing Before Policy: 9
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 8/20
Statement of Opinion:
- It might make coordinating with partners in affected countries harder.
- Travel restrictions always complicate business relations.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 9 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 9 |
| Year 3 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 9 |
Theme Park Executive (Orlando, FL)
Age: 60 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 7.0 years
Commonness: 12/20
Statement of Opinion:
- It's crucial for our visitor numbers not to drop due to travel restrictions for some countries.
- We'll have to pivot our marketing more locally.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 9 |
Tour Guide (Boston, MA)
Age: 28 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 2.0 years
Commonness: 14/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I might see a drop in clients if people from CBI countries can't travel freely.
- This could affect my freelance income.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 8 |
Hospitality Service Provider (Chicago, IL)
Age: 50 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 4.0 years
Commonness: 8/20
Statement of Opinion:
- We rely on spontaneous bookings from international travelers who come from VWP countries.
- This policy might remove some of our clientele. We'll have to adjust swiftly.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 9 |
Tech Startup Founder (San Francisco, CA)
Age: 34 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 9
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 6/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Travel restrictions on our partners will tighten operations.
- We will need to find alternate ways to uphold relationships.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 9 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 9 |
| Year 3 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 10 |
| Year 20 | 10 | 10 |
Casino Manager (Las Vegas, NV)
Age: 40 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 11/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This rule could lead to a drop in international visitors, which is crucial for our high stakes games.
- Adapting to a decrease might require changes in strategy.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 9 |
Bartender (Houston, TX)
Age: 27 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 2.0 years
Commonness: 13/20
Statement of Opinion:
- If fewer tourists visit, especially from CBI countries, that could mean less in tips for me.
- The job market here is competitive, so I'd need a back-up plan.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 8 |
International Trade Adviser (Seattle, WA)
Age: 48 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 8/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Policy changes can alter how I advise clients, especially if they rely on these travel arrangements.
- We'll need to foresee how these shifts impact trade.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 9 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 9 |
Cost Estimates
Year 1: $20000000 (Low: $15000000, High: $30000000)
Year 2: $20000000 (Low: $15000000, High: $30000000)
Year 3: $20000000 (Low: $15000000, High: $30000000)
Year 5: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)
Year 10: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)
Year 100: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)
Key Considerations
- Potential reduction in security risks associated with visitors from countries with high-risk Citizenship by Investment programs.
- Possible downturn in business for sectors relying on tourist activity from affected countries, primarily in tourism and hospitality.
- The administrative cost savings derived in the future from streamlining visa processes and reducing the risk of fraudulent entries.