Bill Overview
Title: Defund Putin Act
Description: This bill withdraws normal trade relations treatment from Russia. It also requires the President to take actions as may be necessary to prohibit the importation of petroleum, natural gas, petrochemicals, and coal from Russia and Belarus.
Sponsors: Rep. Rice, Tom [R-SC-7]
Target Audience
Population: Individuals residing in Russia
Estimated Size: 5000000
- The bill targets major Russian exports like petroleum, natural gas, petrochemicals, and coal.
- Withdrawal of normal trade relations will impact Russian export revenues.
- Russia's economy and citizens may feel adverse economic effects from lost export revenues.
- Belarus could also be indirectly impacted due to association and involvement in economic dealings with Russia.
Reasoning
- The target population in the US will primarily be the energy sectors, such as transportation and manufacturing, which rely on imported Russian and Belarusian energy resources.
- Some consumers dealing with increased energy costs might report lower wellbeing, specifically those in lower-income brackets who are more sensitive to price changes.
- There will be a mix of direct and indirect impacts, as industries adapt by seeking alternative suppliers, which might lead to short-term disruptions.
- Geographically, regions heavily reliant on imported energy from Russia and Belarus will be more affected, potentially the Northeast and areas with less local energy infrastructure.
- Given the policy's financial budget constraints, extensive aid to US consumers and businesses likely isn't feasible, limiting widespread mitigative support.
Simulated Interviews
Petroleum Engineer (Houston, TX)
Age: 45 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 8/20
Statement of Opinion:
- My job depends on our current contracts with Russian suppliers.
- I fear job losses if our company can't replace these suppliers quickly.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 5 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 9 |
Small Business Owner (New York, NY)
Age: 29 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 10/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I'm already seeing my overhead increase due to higher gas prices.
- This policy might make it harder to sustain my business unless I can find some savings elsewhere.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 8 |
Public Transit Worker (Chicago, IL)
Age: 54 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 12/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Our union has been pushing for sustainable energy use for years.
- I think this could be an opportunity to transition more quickly to renewable energy sources.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 9 |
Retired (Boston, MA)
Age: 60 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 9/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I'm concerned about how much more I'll have to pay for heating this winter.
- If costs go up dramatically, it'll be challenging to make ends meet.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 4 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 4 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 4 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 7 |
Renewable Energy Consultant (San Francisco, CA)
Age: 34 | Gender: other
Wellbeing Before Policy: 9
Duration of Impact: 20.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This is a step in the right direction for energy independence.
- My work aims to help companies navigate this transition efficiently.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 2 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 3 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 10 | 10 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 10 | 10 |
Logistics Manager (Phoenix, AZ)
Age: 50 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 11/20
Statement of Opinion:
- We're always looking for the most cost-effective shipping solutions.
- I'm wary of how this policy might increase our operational costs.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 9 |
College Student (Denver, CO)
Age: 23 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 20.0 years
Commonness: 10/20
Statement of Opinion:
- While I support reducing reliance on fossil fuels, I'm worried about job prospects.
- I hope policies encourage growth in renewable energy jobs.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 10 | 9 |
Automotive Manufacturing Worker (Detroit, MI)
Age: 37 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 7/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I'm worried about material cost increases that could result in job cuts.
- It's international situations like these that make our industry so volatile.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 8 |
Tech Startup Founder (Los Angeles, CA)
Age: 31 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 9
Duration of Impact: 20.0 years
Commonness: 6/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This policy aligns with our business's green technology push.
- I'm optimistic about acquiring more clients looking to transition away from fossil fuels.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 2 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 3 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 10 | 9 |
Hospital Administrator (Miami, FL)
Age: 42 | Gender: other
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 8/20
Statement of Opinion:
- We'll need to find ways to offset increased energy costs to maintain our service quality.
- I support the goals, but the financial impact is daunting for our institution.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 9 |
Cost Estimates
Year 1: $70000000 (Low: $50000000, High: $90000000)
Year 2: $60000000 (Low: $40000000, High: $80000000)
Year 3: $50000000 (Low: $30000000, High: $70000000)
Year 5: $30000000 (Low: $20000000, High: $50000000)
Year 10: $10000000 (Low: $5000000, High: $20000000)
Year 100: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)
Key Considerations
- The swift transition from dependence on Russian energy imports could lead to short-term market volatility.
- Changes in global trade relationships might require diplomatic efforts to ensure stability.
- Potential retaliatory economic actions from Russia or Belarus could impact other sectors.