Policy Impact Analysis - 117/HR/6895

Bill Overview

Title: Commission on Sustaining Medicare and Social Security Act of 2022

Description: This bill temporarily establishes the Commission on Sustaining Medicare and Social Security within the legislative branch to report on specified information relating to the Medicare program and the Social Security retirement and disability programs. The report must address (1) the impact of using alternative price indexes to determine cost-of-living adjustments; (2) the impact of using alternative formulas to calculate certain Medicare premiums; and (3) recommendations to prevent fraud, increase integrity, increase sustainability, and reduce improper payments in the programs.

Sponsors: Rep. Bilirakis, Gus M. [R-FL-12]

Target Audience

Population: Individuals worldwide relying on government old-age and disability benefits similar to US Medicare and Social Security.

Estimated Size: 70000000

Reasoning

Simulated Interviews

retired school teacher (Palm Springs, CA)

Age: 72 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 20.0 years

Commonness: 15/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Concerns about any reductions in Social Security or Medicare benefits due to changes in calculations.
  • Appreciates initiatives to reduce fraud but hopes it's not at the cost of her benefits.
  • Worries about the impact of inflation if cost-of-living adjustments are inadequate.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 6
Year 2 6 6
Year 3 7 6
Year 5 7 6
Year 10 8 5
Year 20 9 4

retired auto worker (Detroit, MI)

Age: 68 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 15.0 years

Commonness: 17/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Hopes the commission can find a way to keep Medicare costs down.
  • Worries about the possibility of higher Medicare premiums impacting his tight budget.
  • Supports efforts to crack down on fraud for better utilization of funds.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 5
Year 2 6 4
Year 3 7 4
Year 5 7 3
Year 10 6 3
Year 20 6 2

retired entrepreneur (Miami, FL)

Age: 74 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 8

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 5/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Generally confident that the commission's work will help improve system integrity.
  • Minimal concern about personal impact due to diverse income sources beyond Social Security.
  • Sees the policy as a necessary step for long-term program sustainability.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 8 8
Year 2 8 7
Year 3 8 7
Year 5 8 6
Year 10 7 6
Year 20 7 5

disabled veteran (Dallas, TX)

Age: 60 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 10/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Hopes the commission will enhance benefits for disabled veterans like himself.
  • Concerned about any increases in premiums or costs due to budget constraints.
  • Supports fraud prevention as long as legitimate claims aren't affected.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 7 6
Year 3 8 6
Year 5 8 6
Year 10 7 5
Year 20 6 5

retired farmer (Rural Kansas)

Age: 84 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 4

Duration of Impact: 15.0 years

Commonness: 12/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Extremely worried about changes in cost-of-living adjustments affecting her already limited income.
  • Concerned about the distance and access to Medicare services in her rural location.
  • Hopes the commission can address rural health access and support.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 4
Year 2 5 4
Year 3 6 4
Year 5 6 3
Year 10 5 2
Year 20 5 2

government employee nearing retirement (Portland, OR)

Age: 58 | Gender: other

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 20.0 years

Commonness: 8/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Anticipates a smooth transition to retirement benefits if the commission's proposals are well-designed.
  • Concerns about any sudden changes to expected benefit formulas before retirement.
  • Positive about fraud prevention to secure existing funds.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 6
Year 2 6 5
Year 3 7 5
Year 5 7 5
Year 10 6 5
Year 20 6 5

retired engineer (Chicago, IL)

Age: 66 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 8

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 13/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Confident in the commission's ability to secure benefits for future generations.
  • Slightly concerned about potential premium hikes but prepared financially.
  • Supports any measures to reduce system-wide fraud.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 8 8
Year 2 8 7
Year 3 9 7
Year 5 9 6
Year 10 8 6
Year 20 8 5

retired nurse (Seattle, WA)

Age: 80 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 20.0 years

Commonness: 14/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Opposes any benefit reductions that could reduce her current standard of living.
  • Hopeful for the commission's fraud prevention efforts to optimize benefits.
  • Concerned that changes in cost-of-living adjustments might not cover medical inflation.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 5
Year 2 6 5
Year 3 6 5
Year 5 7 4
Year 10 7 4
Year 20 7 3

self-employed consultant (Los Angeles, CA)

Age: 62 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 6/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Accepts the need to review benefit calculations to ensure sustainability.
  • Focused on maximizing his and his family's future benefits through informed planning.
  • Encourages the commission to support flexible work/retirement options.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 7 6
Year 3 7 6
Year 5 7 6
Year 10 7 6
Year 20 7 6

retired executive assistant (New York, NY)

Age: 77 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 9

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 9/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Believes that enhancing Medicare and Social Security should be a priority.
  • Wants the commission to safeguard against any financial missteps reducing benefits.
  • Positive outlook on efforts to minimize fraud and enhance fiscal responsibility.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 9 9
Year 2 9 9
Year 3 9 8
Year 5 9 8
Year 10 8 7
Year 20 8 6

Cost Estimates

Year 1: $7500000 (Low: $7000000, High: $8000000)

Year 2: $7500000 (Low: $7000000, High: $8000000)

Year 3: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)

Year 5: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)

Year 10: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)

Year 100: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)

Key Considerations