Bill Overview
Title: PADE Act
Description: This bill requires the President to prohibit the importation of crude oil and petroleum products from Russia. In addition, the bill requires the President to obtain congressional approval before (1) declaring a moratorium on the use of hydraulic fracturing, or (2) withdrawing federal land from oil and gas leasing under mineral leasing laws.
Sponsors: Rep. Latta, Robert E. [R-OH-5]
Target Audience
Population: Individuals dependent on oil and petroleum products
Estimated Size: 330000000
- The bill targets the importation and domestic production of oil and gas in the United States, which is a major sector of the international and national economy.
- Russia is a major exporter of oil and petroleum products globally, so prohibiting imports affects Russia's economy and countries reliant on Russian exports.
- Any changes in oil imports or domestic production can have rippling effects on global oil prices, affecting countries worldwide that consume oil products.
- The bill directly impacts the U.S. oil and gas industry, with implications for jobs and the economy within the sector.
- Consumers in the U.S. will be affected by potential changes in oil prices, which impact gasoline prices and other oil-dependent products.
- Environmental policy and energy independence debates in the U.S. are affected, potentially impacting public discourse and policy directions.
Reasoning
- The bill affects a large population segment involved in or dependent on the oil and petroleum industry, which is a significant sector in the US economy, particularly in states like Texas and North Dakota.
- Since the bill involves reducing imports from Russia, there may be an increase in domestic oil extraction activity, boosting jobs in this sector.
- However, shifts in oil production and potential price changes can affect consumer costs for gasoline and other petroleum products, influencing overall wellbeing.
- People directly employed by oil industries might see a different impact compared to consumers who just purchase oil products like gasoline.
- Environmentalists might express concern over the environmental impacts of increased domestic oil production or hydraulic fracturing.
Simulated Interviews
Oil Rig Worker (Houston, Texas)
Age: 45 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I think this policy can secure my job for the foreseeable future as it may lead to more local drilling opportunities.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 4 |
| Year 20 | 5 | 3 |
Petroleum Engineer (Fargo, North Dakota)
Age: 34 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I'm worried about the potential long-term environmental impacts, but short term it could mean job security for me and my colleagues.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 4 |
| Year 20 | 4 | 3 |
Environmental Activist (San Francisco, California)
Age: 29 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 0.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This policy seems to promote more fracking and fossil fuel use instead of moving toward renewable energy, which is concerning for our environmental future.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 4 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 4 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 3 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 2 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 1 | 5 |
Small Business Owner - Gas Station (Seattle, Washington)
Age: 52 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 8/20
Statement of Opinion:
- My prices might fluctuate with this policy, potentially affecting my business revenue since consumers react to gas price changes.
- Increased domestic production might level prices at some stage, but the transition period can be risky.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 5 | 5 |
Financial Analyst (New York, New York)
Age: 40 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 10/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The policy might make traditional oil companies more appealing in the short run affecting stock prices, but long-term sustainability is a concern.
- This bill could influence energy markets and investment strategies significantly.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 5 | 4 |
| Year 20 | 4 | 4 |
Retired (Dallas, Texas)
Age: 60 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 0.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I worry about my kids' future and climate change, but this could mean economic growth for regions reliant on the oil industry.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 4 | 4 |
| Year 20 | 3 | 4 |
College Student (Chicago, Illinois)
Age: 25 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 0.0 years
Commonness: 7/20
Statement of Opinion:
- We need to transition towards renewable energy sources, and this act doesn't align with that future.
- Hydraulic fracturing has significant environmental impacts that concern me.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 4 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 3 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 2 | 6 |
Public Transportation Driver (Boston, Massachusetts)
Age: 39 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 14/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Any rise in fuel prices could impact my union's negotiations with the city regarding benefits and wages.
- Hopeful that domestic production keeps fuel prices stable.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 5 | 4 |
| Year 10 | 4 | 4 |
| Year 20 | 4 | 4 |
State Legislator (Bismarck, North Dakota)
Age: 47 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This could mean increased economic activity and more revenue for state investments, though I have to balance environmental concerns.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 5 |
Professor of Environmental Policy (Los Angeles, California)
Age: 55 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 0.0 years
Commonness: 6/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Long term, I fear this policy detracts from sustainable energy advancements and environmental protections.
- However, I understand the immediate economic incentives for some regions.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 4 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 3 | 6 |
Cost Estimates
Year 1: $2000000000 (Low: $1500000000, High: $2500000000)
Year 2: $1800000000 (Low: $1400000000, High: $2200000000)
Year 3: $1600000000 (Low: $1200000000, High: $2000000000)
Year 5: $1200000000 (Low: $800000000, High: $1600000000)
Year 10: $700000000 (Low: $400000000, High: $1000000000)
Year 100: $100000000 (Low: $50000000, High: $150000000)
Key Considerations
- The policy's success hinges on the capacity of domestic production to meet the shortfall from reduced imports.
- Potential environmental impacts from increased domestic oil drilling, particularly concerning federal lands.
- Market volatility and potential consumer price increases during the adjustment period, affecting the overall economic climate.