Policy Impact Analysis - 117/HR/6876

Bill Overview

Title: Ukraine Democracy Defense Lend-Lease Act of 2022

Description: This bill temporarily waives certain requirements related to the President's authority to lend or lease defense articles if the defense articles are intended for Ukraine's government to help bolster Ukraine's defense capabilities and protect its civilians from a potential Russian military invasion. For FY2022 and FY2023, an agreement to lend or lease defense articles under this bill shall not be subject to certain requirements and provisions that typically apply to such lend-lease agreements, including (1) a requirement that prohibits a loan period from exceeding five years, (2) a requirement that the United States may recall the loaned defense article at any time, (3) a requirement that the receiving party has agreed to pay the United States all costs incurred in leasing the defense article, and (4) a provision that allows Congress to prohibit certain transfers of defense articles upon the enactment of a joint resolution. The President must establish expedited procedures to ensure the timely delivery of defense articles loaned or leased under this bill.

Sponsors: Rep. Wilson, Joe [R-SC-2]

Target Audience

Population: Individuals in Ukraine and its Military

Estimated Size: 5000000

Reasoning

Simulated Interviews

Defense Contractor (San Diego, CA)

Age: 34 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 3.0 years

Commonness: 5/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • The policy seems beneficial for business as it could increase demand for defense articles.
  • I'm glad to see the U.S. supporting Ukraine, as international stability ultimately benefits everyone.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 6
Year 2 7 6
Year 3 7 6
Year 5 6 6
Year 10 6 5
Year 20 5 5

Policy Analyst (Washington, D.C.)

Age: 27 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 8

Duration of Impact: 2.0 years

Commonness: 7/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This is a proactive measure to strengthen international alliances and maintain peace.
  • I'm cautiously optimistic about its long-term effectiveness in deterring aggression.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 8 8
Year 2 9 8
Year 3 9 8
Year 5 8 8
Year 10 8 7
Year 20 8 7

Professor of International Relations (Houston, TX)

Age: 52 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 1.0 years

Commonness: 4/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • The policy is a necessary step to support democracy in Ukraine.
  • I worry about the cost and sustainability of such commitments.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 7 7
Year 3 7 7
Year 5 6 7
Year 10 6 6
Year 20 6 6

Retired Diplomat (New York, NY)

Age: 65 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 0.0 years

Commonness: 6/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Supporting Ukraine aligns with democratic values, but it must be balanced with domestic needs.
  • Hopeful for a peaceful resolution, but concerned about continued resource allocation abroad.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 6
Year 2 6 6
Year 3 6 6
Year 5 6 6
Year 10 6 6
Year 20 5 5

Manufacturing Worker (Chicago, IL)

Age: 45 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 2.0 years

Commonness: 8/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Increased orders are good for my job stability, but I'm wary about being too reliant on international conflicts.
  • The policy doesn't directly affect me, but I see its indirect benefits.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 5
Year 2 6 5
Year 3 6 5
Year 5 5 4
Year 10 5 4
Year 20 5 4

Tech Industry Worker (Seattle, WA)

Age: 29 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 0.0 years

Commonness: 10/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I'm glad the U.S. is assisting Ukraine, though I hope for more diplomatic avenues in the future.
  • The policy doesn't change my wellbeing directly, but it's reassuring to see political responsiveness.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 7 7
Year 3 7 7
Year 5 7 7
Year 10 7 7
Year 20 6 6

Financial Analyst (Houston, TX)

Age: 43 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 1.0 years

Commonness: 5/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • The defense spending as a result of this policy could be a short-term boost but may have risks.
  • I'm cautious about the broader economic implications of increased military focus.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 6
Year 2 6 6
Year 3 6 6
Year 5 6 6
Year 10 5 5
Year 20 5 5

Peace Activist (Boston, MA)

Age: 37 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 0.0 years

Commonness: 3/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I oppose further militarization and hope for peaceful negotiation, concerned might raise tensions.
  • My wellbeing is linked to seeing diplomatic efforts prioritized over military support.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 5
Year 2 5 5
Year 3 5 5
Year 5 5 5
Year 10 5 5
Year 20 5 5

U.S. Diplomat's Partner (San Francisco, CA)

Age: 39 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 3.0 years

Commonness: 2/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • The policy provides some reassurance about our safety here.
  • I'm hopeful but still anxious about the situation.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 5
Year 2 7 5
Year 3 7 5
Year 5 6 5
Year 10 5 5
Year 20 5 5

Veteran (Phoenix, AZ)

Age: 55 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 1.0 years

Commonness: 6/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • As a veteran, I see the value in supporting allies, but mindful of potential escalation costs.
  • Hope the policy stays effective without leading us into conflicts.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 7 7
Year 3 6 7
Year 5 6 6
Year 10 6 6
Year 20 5 5

Cost Estimates

Year 1: $3000000000 (Low: $2500000000, High: $3500000000)

Year 2: $3200000000 (Low: $2700000000, High: $3700000000)

Year 3: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)

Year 5: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)

Year 10: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)

Year 100: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)

Key Considerations