Bill Overview
Title: Ocean Shipping Antitrust Enforcement Act
Description: This bill removes the exemption from federal antitrust laws for ocean common carriers.
Sponsors: Rep. Costa, Jim [D-CA-16]
Target Audience
Population: People who are dependent on goods and services transported by ocean common carriers
Estimated Size: 330000000
- Ocean common carriers are companies that provide international marine transportation services.
- The antitrust exemption allowed these carriers to collaborate in ways that would otherwise be subject to antitrust laws, affecting pricing and logistics.
- Removing the exemption will impact carriers’ operations, possibly leading to more competitive pricing, changes in shipping logistics, and adjustments in industry operations.
- Businesses that rely on ocean shipping for imports and exports will be directly impacted, as they are primary users of these services.
- Consumers globally may be indirectly impacted due to changes in shipping costs and product availability, as many goods are transported via ocean carriers.
Reasoning
- The Ocean Shipping Antitrust Enforcement Act will mostly impact businesses that heavily rely on international shipping for importing and exporting goods. These entities will experience immediate changes related to shipping costs and logistics. Depending on the magnitude of these changes, consumers might also notice changes in the prices and availability of certain goods.
- The policy's impact might vary across different sectors of the US economy. Those heavily involved in international trade, like manufacturers and retailers of imported goods, will see a more pronounced impact. Conversely, sectors or individuals with limited reliance on imports will likely remain unchanged.
- Given the broad nature of US reliance on global trade, a diverse sample of individuals can provide insights into varying levels of impact on wellbeing. Logistics professionals, small business owners, and consumers with a significant dependence on imported products are included, as they represent parties most likely to be impacted directly or indirectly.
- The budgetary constraints of $30 million USD in year 1 and $378 million USD over 10 years appear to direct the policy's impact more towards regulatory enforcement activities rather than direct financial assistance or subsidies, which might not provide immediate or visible benefits to all stakeholders.
- It's important to incorporate some participants who might not be impacted significantly to understand the full spectrum of the policy's reach.
Simulated Interviews
Logistics Manager (Los Angeles, CA)
Age: 45 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 12/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Currently, we benefit from reliable agreements with ocean carriers. Increased competition could drive down shipping costs, ultimately benefiting us, but it might disrupt established logistics channels.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 8 |
Small Business Owner (Chicago, IL)
Age: 60 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 10/20
Statement of Opinion:
- My business might benefit if shipping costs decrease due to more competition. Yet, if logistics become unpredictable, it could hurt my ability to plan purchasing effectively.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 5 |
Retail Chain Buyer (New York, NY)
Age: 30 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 2.0 years
Commonness: 14/20
Statement of Opinion:
- There could be potential savings in shipping costs that might reduce product prices, which is positive. However, this transition could also lead to some initial supply chain instability.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 7 |
Consumer (Houston, TX)
Age: 37 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 18/20
Statement of Opinion:
- As a consumer, fluctuations in product prices due to shipping costs can affect my budget. Lower shipping costs might lower prices, but the market response is uncertain.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 5 | 5 |
Sustainability Analyst (Boulder, CO)
Age: 28 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 8/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This could potentially encourage more sustainable practices if companies are pushed to optimize costs and reduce emissions. However, the primary focus of this change isn't on sustainability.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 7 |
Hedge Fund Manager (Miami, FL)
Age: 50 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 9/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This policy could provoke volatility in the shipping industry, impacting investments. However, increased competition might drive innovation and create opportunities.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 5 |
Tech Company Supply Chain Director (Seattle, WA)
Age: 42 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 4.0 years
Commonness: 6/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I hope the increased competition will lead to lower shipping costs, but if it disrupts the supply chain, it may cause issues with manufacturing schedules.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 8 |
Port Authority Official (Savannah, GA)
Age: 55 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Changes in shipping agreements might alter port operations. It could mean increased efficiency but also more complexities in import/export management.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 7 |
Economist (Austin, TX)
Age: 33 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 9
Duration of Impact: 20.0 years
Commonness: 7/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I foresee this policy fostering a more competitive environment which could potentially drive market efficiencies, though the initial turbulence might cause economic ripples.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 2 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 3 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 10 | 9 |
Graduate Student (San Francisco, CA)
Age: 24 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 0.0 years
Commonness: 11/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I am curious to see how this policy change could create opportunities for research and new business models. It’s an interesting case study for global trade dynamics.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 8 |
Cost Estimates
Year 1: $30000000 (Low: $20000000, High: $50000000)
Year 2: $32000000 (Low: $21000000, High: $53000000)
Year 3: $34000000 (Low: $22000000, High: $57000000)
Year 5: $38000000 (Low: $25000000, High: $63000000)
Year 10: $44000000 (Low: $29000000, High: $75000000)
Year 100: $100000000 (Low: $60000000, High: $160000000)
Key Considerations
- Monitoring and enforcement of antitrust laws will require resource allocation and may necessitate additional regulatory oversight.
- Industry adaptation to the removal of the exemption could take time, possibly causing volatility in pricing and service quality in the short term.
- The breadth of impact on global supply chains and downstream effects on consumer prices need careful consideration.