Bill Overview
Title: Russian Travel Sanctions for a Democratic Ukraine Act
Description: This bill imposes visa-blocking sanctions on certain citizens of Russia. Specifically, the President must impose such sanctions on citizens of Russia who are (1) Russian oligarchs, (2) employees of Russia's government, or (3) employees of companies that are owned by or receive funding from Russia's government. The President must also impose the sanctions on family members of such individuals. The President must coordinate with allies, including NATO member states, on the imposition of such sanctions. The President may waive the application of such sanctions in certain instances.
Sponsors: Rep. Phillips, Dean [D-MN-3]
Target Audience
Population: Individuals impacted by the Russian Travel Sanctions for a Democratic Ukraine Act
Estimated Size: 0
- The bill targets Russian oligarchs, which are a small fraction of the Russian population, likely numbering in the hundreds.
- Employees of the Russian government also targeted; estimated to be around 2 million individuals as of recent data.
- Employees of companies owned by or receiving funding from Russia's government are targeted; a more challenging estimate, but including major sectors may involve millions.
- Family members of these targeted groups could number in the millions, assuming an average family size.
- Not all individuals will travel abroad or have family intending to travel, reducing the effective number impacted at any given time.
- The total Russian population is approximately 143 million, so directly and indirectly targeting tens of millions could lead to widespread impact.
- Visa travel sanctions impact ability of families to unite or apply for international travel visas, particularly affecting those with business or personal interests abroad.
Reasoning
- Since the sanction targets Russian citizens, the direct impact on American citizens is limited. However, there might be indirect effects on Americans involved in international business or those with personal connections to targeted individuals.
- The policy's budget constraints suggest that it must efficiently focus on significant cases, mainly those with substantial U.S. and allied national security concerns.
- The estimations imply a large-scale targeting in Russia, but American interactions may occur through business, personal or humanitarian ties, requiring a careful choice of interview subjects.
- The common American person is unlikely to feel direct impact; however, individuals in diplomatic, business, or cultural exchange communities may have unique perspectives.
Simulated Interviews
Cultural Exchange Program Director (New York City, NY)
Age: 62 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The policy may hinder our cultural exchange initiatives significantly.
- I have personal connections in Russia whom I frequently host in the U.S.,
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 4 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 4 | 5 |
Tech Entrepreneur (San Francisco, CA)
Age: 45 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The sanctions might complicate my business ties and travel plans.
- I'm worried about disruption in our collaboration with Russian tech firms.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 5 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 5 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 5 | 6 |
Government Official (Washington, D.C.)
Age: 50 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 8/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The sanctions are necessary yet could strain international relations.
- Close cooperation with allies is crucial with such policies.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 6 |
International Relations Graduate Student (Miami, FL)
Age: 29 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 1.0 years
Commonness: 10/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This is a valuable case study on sanctions efficacy.
- I hope it leads to measurable outcomes in foreign policy.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 5 | 5 |
Legal Consultant (Chicago, IL)
Age: 34 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 6/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The policy could increase the need for legal compliance and consultation.
- It may create more business for international law consultants.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 7 |
Oil and Gas Industry Executive (Houston, TX)
Age: 59 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 7.0 years
Commonness: 7/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I'm concerned about potential disruptions in our energy projects.
- Navigating international sanctions will be a challenge.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 5 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 5 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 5 | 6 |
Non-Profit Manager (Seattle, WA)
Age: 42 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This could impact our NGO's ability to operate.
- It might affect our communication with Russian counterparts.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 4 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 4 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 3 | 4 |
Academic Researcher (Boston, MA)
Age: 37 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 7/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The sanctions may limit conference participation and collaboration.
- It raises questions about longer-term academic liberty.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 5 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 5 | 6 |
Film Producer (Los Angeles, CA)
Age: 28 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 6/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Sanctions could affect film co-productions and partnerships.
- The creative sector may need to find new workarounds.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 6 |
Travel Agency Owner (Dallas, TX)
Age: 48 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 4.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The policy could create obstacles for travel plans involving Russia.
- I foresee a decrease in demand from Russian clientele.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 5 | 6 |
Cost Estimates
Year 1: $20000000 (Low: $15000000, High: $30000000)
Year 2: $18000000 (Low: $14000000, High: $25000000)
Year 3: $18000000 (Low: $14000000, High: $25000000)
Year 5: $15000000 (Low: $12000000, High: $22000000)
Year 10: $10000000 (Low: $8000000, High: $15000000)
Year 100: $5000000 (Low: $4000000, High: $7000000)
Key Considerations
- Enforcement involves coordination with international allies, which could complicate roll-out and sustain operational costs.
- The scale involves large groups due to family inclusions, increasing administration complexity.
- Although indirectly, American businesses with interests in the affected Russian sectors might be impacted, this is limited and indirect.