Bill Overview
Title: To provide for the imposition of sanctions on members of parliament of the Russian Federation who voted on February 15, 2022, in favor of the appeal to President Vladimir Putin to recognize the regions of Donetsk and Luhansk in southeastern Ukraine as one or more independent states.
Description: This bill authorizes the President to impose asset- and visa-blocking sanctions on any member of Russia's parliament who voted on February 15, 2022, to appeal to Russian President Vladimir Putin to recognize the Donetsk and Luhansk regions of Ukraine as one or more independent states.
Sponsors: Rep. Keating, William R. [D-MA-9]
Target Audience
Population: Russian members of parliament who voted in favor of recognizing Donetsk and Luhansk as independent
Estimated Size: 0
- The bill targets sanctions at parliament members specifically, suggesting a limited scope.
- Russia has 450 members in the State Duma, the lower house of the Federal Assembly, of which a portion voted for the appeal.
- The sanctions are on individuals, not the wider population.
- Sanctions include asset and visa blocks, impacting those with assets abroad or travel intentions.
Reasoning
- The policy is targeted at specific individuals and is unlikely to have direct effects on the general U.S. population.
- Indirect effects may be observed among Americans with financial or business ties in Russia, or those involved in international diplomacy.
- Given the budget constraints, the policy must be efficient and focused, ensuring its impacts remain within the predicted outcomes.
- The Cantril self-anchoring scale is being used to quantify perceived wellbeing over time.
- Interviews reflect a diverse sample of perspectives, illustrating broad reactions and perceptions.
Simulated Interviews
Financial Analyst (New York City, NY)
Age: 48 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 2.0 years
Commonness: 10/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I believe these sanctions are necessary to send a strong message, though I'm concerned about potential market disruptions.
- Some of my clients may be affected, but overall, I prioritize stability and moral standing.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 8 |
Diplomat (Washington D.C.)
Age: 34 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This policy will complicate diplomatic negotiations, but it aligns with current U.S. foreign policy principles.
- Long term, I support measures that uphold international law.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 8 |
Tech Entrepreneur (Austin, TX)
Age: 29 | Gender: other
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- These sanctions could limit my business dealings with Russian partners, posing a financial risk.
- However, I understand the necessity from a political standpoint.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 7 |
Entertainment Industry Executive (Los Angeles, CA)
Age: 57 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 1.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The entertainment industry is relatively insulated, but these sanctions could affect co-productions.
- I support the principle but worry about art transcending politics.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 7 |
International Lawyer (Miami, FL)
Age: 41 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 4.0 years
Commonness: 2/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This policy definitely has legal implications for some clients, which could increase my workload.
- I believe it's aligned with international sanctions norms, which I support.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 7 |
Retired (Chicago, IL)
Age: 62 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 0.0 years
Commonness: 7/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I'm concerned about global tensions but feel this policy is necessary to check political aggression.
- This doesn't affect me directly but does impact how I view the world situation.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 8 |
Oil and Gas Consultant (Houston, TX)
Age: 50 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 2.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- These sanctions could disrupt the energy market and affect prices, indirectly impacting my work.
- I understand the strategic necessity despite potential downsides.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 6 |
Software Developer (San Francisco, CA)
Age: 28 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 1.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This policy might make international collaboration more challenging, but digitally, work goes on.
- As a principle, I support measures that promote peace and justice.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 8 |
NGO Worker (Seattle, WA)
Age: 33 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 0.0 years
Commonness: 6/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I strongly support policy efforts that address illegal territorial claims and human rights.
- This should have little immediate effect on my work but it's important symbolically.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 7 |
Economics Professor (Boston, MA)
Age: 45 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 1.0 years
Commonness: 8/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This policy provides a fascinating case study for my students on international sanctions.
- The economic impact might be limited to specific sectors.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 7 |
Cost Estimates
Year 1: $5000000 (Low: $3000000, High: $7000000)
Year 2: $5000000 (Low: $3000000, High: $7000000)
Year 3: $5000000 (Low: $3000000, High: $7000000)
Year 5: $5000000 (Low: $3000000, High: $7000000)
Year 10: $5000000 (Low: $3000000, High: $7000000)
Year 100: $5000000 (Low: $3000000, High: $7000000)
Key Considerations
- Upfront costs primarily arise from operationalizing sanctions enforcement.
- No direct revenue generation or savings from sanctions on foreign officials.
- Limited economic ramifications due to specific target scope of sanctions.
- Potential minor indirect effects on U.S. businesses or diplomatic relations.