Bill Overview
Title: No Most Favored Nation Trading with Russia Act
Description: This bill withdraws normal trade relations treatment from Russia. Additionally, the bill requires the President to encourage U.S. allies and partners to (1) consider taking similar actions; and (2) condemn, at the World Trade Organization (WTO), Russia's aggression in Ukraine. Further, the President must direct the U.S. Permanent Representative to the WTO to seek suspension of Russia's membership in the WTO.
Sponsors: Rep. Doggett, Lloyd [D-TX-35]
Target Audience
Population: People/individuals engaged in or affected by trade with Russia
Estimated Size: 200000000
- Russia currently enjoys Most Favored Nation status in the trade relations with the US, which generally means lower tariffs and fewer trade barriers on imports and exports between these countries.
- Removing this status will likely lead to increased tariffs on Russian goods entering the US.
- US consumers purchasing Russian products may face higher prices, thus reducing their purchasing power for these specific goods.
- US companies that import Russian goods could face higher costs, affecting their business operations and profitability.
- Conversely, US industries that compete with Russian imports may benefit due to reduced competition with cheaper Russian goods.
- In a broader sense, global markets could experience shifts due to trade policy changes imposed by the US, directly impacting global trade dynamics.
Reasoning
- The policy primarily affects those involved in importing and exporting goods with Russia, consumers who purchase Russian products, and industries competing with Russian imports.
- A budget limit implies that only a part of the target population can be directly supported or compensated through related measures.
- Typically, populations directly involved in the trade, such as companies and consumers, would experience more tangible impacts, whether positive or negative.
- The policy does not directly provide financial compensation but may shift market focus, so the cost associated with this policy primarily relates to enforcement and diplomatic actions.
Simulated Interviews
Import business owner (New York, NY)
Age: 54 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 20.0 years
Commonness: 6/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The loss of MFN status will increase costs for my business as tariffs on Russian steel go up.
- I'll either have to pass these costs onto consumers or find new suppliers which could disrupt supply chains.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 4 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 4 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 3 | 5 |
Software Engineer (San Francisco, CA)
Age: 45 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 0.0 years
Commonness: 15/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I don't think this policy affects me directly, but I'm concerned about broader geopolitical tensions.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 7 |
Energy Analyst (Houston, TX)
Age: 32 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 10/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This change may have ripple effects on global energy prices, creating job opportunities for me to analyze these shifts.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 7 |
Industrial Manufacturer (Detroit, MI)
Age: 60 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 15.0 years
Commonness: 8/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This could benefit my business by making my American-made machinery parts more competitive.
- I'm optimistic about increased market demand.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 4 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 4 |
Economics Professor (Chicago, IL)
Age: 29 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 7/20
Statement of Opinion:
- It's interesting to see how trade relations evolve.
- This policy could serve as an example in my classes.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 8 |
Fashion Retailer (Miami, FL)
Age: 37 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 15.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I'm worried about higher costs and limited access to unique Russian fabrics.
- I'll have to seek alternatives which might change my brand.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 5 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 5 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 4 | 7 |
Graduate Student (Seattle, WA)
Age: 23 | Gender: other
Wellbeing Before Policy: 9
Duration of Impact: 0.0 years
Commonness: 12/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This is a fascinating case study for my research on trade policies and international responses.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 2 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 3 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 8 |
Luxury Goods Retailer (Los Angeles, CA)
Age: 49 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 7.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This might affect my sales to Russian clients, but I'm exploring ways to mitigate this through new market strategies.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 7 |
Automotive Part Supplier (Dallas, TX)
Age: 52 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 12.0 years
Commonness: 9/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Costs may rise due to tariffs, but demand from US manufacturers could also increase as they switch to domestic parts.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 5 |
Policy Analyst (Boston, MA)
Age: 58 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Policy shifts like this one are crucial for analysis and understanding the broader economic impacts.
- It's an opportunity to contribute to meaningful policy recommendations.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 7 |
Cost Estimates
Year 1: $20000000 (Low: $15000000, High: $25000000)
Year 2: $21000000 (Low: $16000000, High: $26000000)
Year 3: $22000000 (Low: $17000000, High: $27000000)
Year 5: $24000000 (Low: $19000000, High: $29000000)
Year 10: $28000000 (Low: $23000000, High: $33000000)
Year 100: $50000000 (Low: $40000000, High: $60000000)
Key Considerations
- The impact on US-Russia diplomatic relations and potential retaliations.
- The responsiveness of US industries to fill voids left by Russian products.
- Long-term effects on consumer prices and purchasing power.
- Impact on allied or partner nations' trade policies with Russia.