Bill Overview
Title: United States-Russian Federation Seafood Reciprocity Act of 2022
Description: This bill prohibits the importation of seafood and seafood products from Russia. The prohibition shall terminate on the date on which the President determines and certifies to Congress that the Russian government has terminated its prohibition on the importation of seafood products from the United States.
Sponsors: Rep. Young, Don [R-AK-At Large]
Target Audience
Population: People involved in the seafood sectors of the U.S. and Russia, including consumers, producers, and workers.
Estimated Size: 500000
- The bill prohibits the importation of seafood from Russia to the United States, which directly affects U.S. importers who rely on Russian seafood.
- Russian seafood exporters would see a decrease in access to the U.S. market, potentially affecting their sales and revenue.
- The seafood industry in Russia, including fishermen and processing plants, would be impacted by a decrease in export opportunities.
- U.S. consumers who purchase Russian seafood (such as certain types of fish) could see changes in pricing or availability.
- U.S. businesses that re-export or distribute Russian seafood will need to find alternative sources.
- There could be broader effects on the global seafood market, as changes in U.S.-Russian trade may lead to price adjustments and supply chain shifts.
Reasoning
- The policy mainly affects those in the U.S. seafood industry relying on imports from Russia. Consumers might experience price changes but have alternative options, leading to varied impact levels.
- Those directly importing from Russia or distributing Russian seafood will need to adapt significantly, hence experiencing higher policy impact.
- General U.S. consumers are less likely to be impacted substantially as the market can substitute the supply from other nations.
- The given budget means the policy has a limited financial scope to assist those impacted, probably focusing more on temporary relief or industry adjustment aids.
Simulated Interviews
Seafood Importer (Seattle, WA)
Age: 45 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This policy is a huge blow to my business. It's going to be challenging to find alternatives quickly without affecting my clients.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 4 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 6 |
Seafood Restaurant Owner (Boston, MA)
Age: 32 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 2.0 years
Commonness: 6/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I will need to source different seafood options, which could change my menu and customer offerings.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 8 |
Software Developer (San Francisco, CA)
Age: 29 | Gender: other
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 0.0 years
Commonness: 13/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I barely notice any difference. I buy local or alternative imported seafood.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 7 |
Fisherman (New Orleans, LA)
Age: 55 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 1.0 years
Commonness: 10/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This doesn't impact me directly, but market fluctuations might affect prices overall.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 5 | 5 |
Grocery Store Manager (Miami, FL)
Age: 40 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 1.0 years
Commonness: 8/20
Statement of Opinion:
- We'll adapt as needed by offering alternative seafood options from other countries.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 7 |
Seafood Industry Analyst (New York, NY)
Age: 50 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 9
Duration of Impact: 2.0 years
Commonness: 7/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This is an interesting development that could reshape import practices over time.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 9 |
| Year 2 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 3 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 9 |
College Student (Chicago, IL)
Age: 23 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 0.0 years
Commonness: 15/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The change is not particularly impactful for someone on a student budget.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 6 |
Logistics Coordinator (Houston, TX)
Age: 38 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 2.0 years
Commonness: 6/20
Statement of Opinion:
- My job will get harder as we look for new suppliers. It could even mean new job opportunities if we adapt fast.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 6 |
Chef (Los Angeles, CA)
Age: 47 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 1.0 years
Commonness: 8/20
Statement of Opinion:
- We will need to adjust but have access to diverse alternative sources.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 7 |
Retired (Portland, ME)
Age: 61 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 0.0 years
Commonness: 12/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I might see some price changes, but overall, my life won't change much.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 7 |
Cost Estimates
Year 1: $10000000 (Low: $8000000, High: $12000000)
Year 2: $7500000 (Low: $5000000, High: $10000000)
Year 3: $5000000 (Low: $3000000, High: $7000000)
Year 5: $2000000 (Low: $1000000, High: $3000000)
Year 10: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)
Year 100: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)
Key Considerations
- The immediate impact on U.S. businesses reliant on Russian seafood could be significant in terms of revenue and operational adjustments.
- Non-tariff barriers might emerge as countries adjust their international trade policies in response.
- Monitoring potential retaliatory economic measures from Russia could be necessary.