Bill Overview
Title: Securing Transparent Operations to Prevent China’s Abuse of International Financing Act
Description: This bill requires U.S. representatives to the United Nations, the World Trade Organization, and specified international financial institutions to take actions to address China's role in such institutions. The representatives to these institutions must (1) advocate and vote against their respective institutions using U.S. contributions to procure goods from (or sourced in) China, and (2) pursue procedural changes so that their respective institutions do not consider China a developing nation for any purpose.
Sponsors: Rep. Guest, Michael [R-MS-3]
Target Audience
Population: People economically connected to China or impacted by international financial decisions
Estimated Size: 5000000
- The bill affects global financial operations involving China, particularly in terms of how international financial institutions interact with the country.
- China is a major player in the global economy, and changes involving its status and interactions can have wide ripple effects internationally.
- International financial institutions and organizations are relevant in many parts of the world where projects are funded or managed with their involvement.
Reasoning
- The policy targets a very specialized segment of the U.S. and global population. We need to consider various sectors and levels of individuals' connection to China.
- The estimated population size potentially affected by this policy in the U.S. is about 5 million, which includes people with direct economic connections to China such as importers, exporters, and professionals in associated industries.
- Given the policy's financial limitations in its early years, only a subset of those impacted would feel significant effects immediately, leaning more towards industries with high exposure to Chinese markets.
- The policy affects people's wellbeing by potentially altering job security and economic prospects due to shifts in trade and international financing norms.
- Most individuals may not perceive an immediate impact to their wellbeing in the short term (like year 1 or 2), but industries reacting to the policy may face longer-term structural changes.
Simulated Interviews
Tech executive (San Francisco, CA)
Age: 45 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 20.0 years
Commonness: 2/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Our business relies heavily on Chinese manufacturing to keep costs down.
- Any disruption here could mean having to find new suppliers, which could be very costly and time-consuming.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 5 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 4 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 3 | 7 |
Financial analyst (New York, NY)
Age: 38 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- As someone tracking these dynamics, this policy creates a lot of uncertainty about future U.S.-China economic relationships.
- While it does not affect me directly, it could disrupt clients depending on their focus.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 6 |
Engineer (Houston, TX)
Age: 50 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The policy might reduce competition from China in international bidding but increases scrutiny and complexity in financial dealings.
- Could see this hampering opportunities if not well-managed.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 5 |
Import/export consultant (Los Angeles, CA)
Age: 27 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- My job depends on smooth trade with China; this policy could complicate many of my clients' business models.
- Risk to my role would depend on if businesses can adapt.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 6 |
Software developer (Seattle, WA)
Age: 32 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 6/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This policy may indirectly influence my work, if partnerships with Chinese companies are affected.
- It could be less impactful than direct trade regulations.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 8 |
Student (Austin, TX)
Age: 29 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 0.0 years
Commonness: 7/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This policy could provide interesting research angles, but does not directly impact my daily life.
- Important policy change to be aware of while planning my career.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 8 |
Retired (Chicago, IL)
Age: 61 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 9
Duration of Impact: 0.0 years
Commonness: 8/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I don't see how this policy impacts my retirement at all.
- It's interesting to see these geopolitical shifts, but my day-to-day remains the same.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 2 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 3 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 8 |
Academic researcher (Boston, MA)
Age: 54 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 0.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This policy provides new factors for my legal studies and teaching, but doesn't change personal well-being.
- Could influence future academic focus depending on how organizations adapt.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 8 |
Auto industry professional (Detroit, MI)
Age: 40 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Auto sectors depend on parts sometimes sourced from the global market, including China.
- This policy might mean sourcing from other higher-cost regions, affecting production bills and potentially jobs.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 5 |
Small business owner (Denver, CO)
Age: 35 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 15.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- My business relies on affordable, high-quality imports from China.
- The policy introducing complications could mean rethinking product lines or pricing.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 5 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 5 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 4 | 7 |
Cost Estimates
Year 1: $50000000 (Low: $40000000, High: $70000000)
Year 2: $50000000 (Low: $40000000, High: $70000000)
Year 3: $50000000 (Low: $40000000, High: $70000000)
Year 5: $50000000 (Low: $40000000, High: $70000000)
Year 10: $50000000 (Low: $40000000, High: $70000000)
Year 100: $50000000 (Low: $40000000, High: $70000000)
Key Considerations
- The procedural changes to reclassify China's status could have diplomatic repercussions, possibly affecting other unrelated negotiations.
- International institutions might resist changes that challenge longstanding classifications and mechanisms, leading to friction or even diplomatic standoffs.
- Direct costs are primarily operational and diplomatic, yet long-term policy changes might adjust the landscape of international financing with deleterious or beneficial effects.