Bill Overview
Title: Preventing Pretrial Gun Purchases Act
Description: This bill prohibits the sale or disposition of a firearm or ammunition to a person who is subject to a pretrial release order that prohibits the person from purchasing, possessing, or receiving firearms. It also establishes grants for states and Indian tribes to report information about pretrial release orders to the National Instant Criminal Background Check System.
Sponsors: Rep. Maloney, Carolyn B. [D-NY-12]
Target Audience
Population: Individuals under pretrial release orders prohibited from purchasing firearms
Estimated Size: 200000
- Individuals under pretrial release orders typically have legal restrictions on their activities, including firearm possession.
- This act specifically targets those under pretrial release while simultaneously involved in incidents relating to firearms.
- Such individuals might be a relatively small percentage of the total population but represent a specific subset of criminal cases.
- The bill encourages states and Indian tribes to report pretrial orders, which suggests a significant focus on areas with specific types of legal systems and recognition (e.g., tribal courts).
- The global impact includes not just those directly affected by firearm purchase restrictions but also communities concerned about gun violence.
Reasoning
- This policy targets individuals under pretrial release orders with specific firearm restrictions, representing a smaller part of the population but a significant factor in criminal justice and gun violence prevention.
- The policy's impact will primarily be on those directly under such orders but also extends to communities and law enforcement focused on reducing gun violence.
- Given the budget constraints and the focus on reporting and preventing gun purchases, the potential impact on wellbeing as measured by the Cantril scale may be more related to safety and security perceptions than direct personal improvement. The population directly impacted would mostly be those with pretrial firearm restrictions.
- There is a need to allocate resources to states and tribal governments to ensure compliance and comprehensive reporting to the National Instant Criminal Background Check System.
- The variance in influence across different individuals depends on their proximity to gun-related crime environments and legal processes. This means not all individuals have the same level of perceived impact from the policy.
Simulated Interviews
Retired police officer (Oklahoma City, OK)
Age: 45 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I'm glad to see this policy coming into place. As a former officer, I know how dangerous it can be when firearms are obtained unlawfully.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 5 |
Community organizer (Portland, OR)
Age: 32 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 20.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This policy is a step in the right direction, ensuring safer communities by preventing easy gun access for individuals under legal scrutiny.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 6 |
Artist (Nashville, TN)
Age: 29 | Gender: other
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 6/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I support measures that increase safety, although I think more comprehensive gun reforms are needed.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 5 | 5 |
Small business owner (Detroit, MI)
Age: 40 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Anything that keeps guns out of the wrong hands is something I can support, but I don't expect it to change overnight.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 5 | 4 |
College student (Houston, TX)
Age: 19 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 15.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I'm optimistic that these updates will lead to responsible firearm laws. It's encouraging for students concerned about campus safety.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 6 |
Attorney (Phoenix, AZ)
Age: 55 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 20.0 years
Commonness: 2/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This seems like a critical move to protect those who've been threatened with gun violence while legal issues are being resolved.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 5 |
Software developer (New York, NY)
Age: 27 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 2.0 years
Commonness: 7/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I don't see this affecting my day-to-day life, but anything that helps reduce crime is welcome.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 5 | 4 |
| Year 10 | 5 | 4 |
| Year 20 | 4 | 4 |
Retired school principal (Chicago, IL)
Age: 60 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This law seems reasonable, but I hope it won't come with excessive bureaucratic hurdles for law enforcement.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 5 | 4 |
Teacher (Los Angeles, CA)
Age: 34 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 15.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Direct effects on my students might be minimal, but every effort counts in making schools safer.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 5 |
Gun shop owner (Rural Montana)
Age: 49 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 2.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- While I understand the intent, I worry about how this policy might discourage lawful purchases through more red tape.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 8 |
Cost Estimates
Year 1: $55000000 (Low: $45000000, High: $65000000)
Year 2: $45000000 (Low: $40000000, High: $60000000)
Year 3: $40000000 (Low: $35000000, High: $55000000)
Year 5: $30000000 (Low: $25000000, High: $50000000)
Year 10: $25000000 (Low: $20000000, High: $45000000)
Year 100: $1800000 (Low: $1500000, High: $2500000)
Key Considerations
- The scale and scope of the grants provided to states and tribes will significantly influence the overall effectiveness of the reported information system.
- Coordination with existing justice and background check systems will be crucial to minimize redundancies and ensure accurate tracking of pretrial release orders.
- Monitoring and evaluating the act's effectiveness will require additional resources and economic modeling to assess crime reduction and associated savings.